Tag: Russia
The Balkans got its due, but there are bigger issues
Deputy Assistant Secretary Gabriel Escobar, in charge of relations with the Western Balkans, testified this morning at the House Subcommittee on Europe, Energy, the Environment and Cyber. He toed the traditional US lines: EU accession within a foreseeable timeframe of all the Western Balkan states, maintenance of their sovereignty and territorial integrity, and countering the malign influence in the region of Russia and China. The specifics included
- a start to EU accession negotiations for Albania and Macedonia before the end of this year,
- support for the EU “normalization” dialogue between Pristina and Belgrade with the aim (ideally) of mutual recognition,
- insistence on sovereignty, inclusiveness, and democracy in Montenegro,
- hope for electoral, economic and rule of law reforms in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and
- sharp criticism of those who want Republika Srpska’s 49% to secede.
The House members were supportive but questioned Escobar on whether US the negotiator for electoral reforms was too close to the ethnic nationalists in Bosnia and Herzegovina, whether enough is being done to counter China and Russia, what more might be done on energy and trade, and how the Adminstration’s authority to impose corruption-related sanctions will be used. Escobar asserted that the US push for Bosnian electoral reforms will aim at ensuring all citizens are treated equally (as required by European court decisions), he emphasized the US lacks the autocratic tools that China uses to penetrate the region economically, he elaborated on energy issues (especially the prospects for liquified natural gas), and he pledged vigorous use of the new sanctions authority.
It was a fine performance, but I would fault it on a few details: even a lukewaram endorsement of the Open Balkans initiative that Serbia is pursuing should be conditioned on the requirement to treat all prospective members, including Kosovo, as equal partners. Failure to mention the EU’s long delay in granting Kosovo a visa waiver program is an important error of omission, as it has caused the most EU-positive country in the region to suffer increasing doubts about whether its government can deliver. I am also skeptical of the pursuit of electoral reforms within a flawed constitutional structure in Bosnia and Herzegovina. We’ll just have to wait and see whether that will work well or simply solidify the ethnic nationalist hold on power. Russian progress in penetrating and instrumentalizing its relationship with Serbia was not, I think, adequately appreciated, especially in the military sphere as Serbia massively re-arms to the consternation of its neighbors.
All that said, the big missing piece was how we get to the Administration’s goals–EU membership for all the countries of the Western Balkans–from where we are. The EU quite rightly has tightened requirements for membership, based on its not entirely happy experience with new members who slide backwards in their commitments to accountable and transparent government, individual rights, foreign policy alignment, and other important dimensions of joining the EU. The Western Balkan countries are complaining bitterly that enlargement lacks political support among many member states. The result has been a seemingly ever-more-distant horizon for accession, over which the US has precious little leverage.
One parting note: the House members may not be able to pronounce “Podgorica,” but their questioning was apt and even perspicacious. Two of the members have significant numbers of Bosnians resident in their districts, one has been involved with the region in various capacities for decades, and others just seemed well-staffed. But no one should be fooled: this hearing will get little or no ink in tomorrow’s papers, which are much more interested in the torturous trajectory of President Biden’s budget proposals. Today’s hearings on climate change will attract a lot more attention. The Western Balkans got its due, but there are a lot bigger issues out there.
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Bosnia and Herzegovina: time to stop the nonsense
Milorad Dodik, the Serb member of the tripartite presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina, has been threatening withdrawal from the state’s army, its taxation authority, its intelligence and law enforcement apparatus, and its judiciary. Dodik also denies the authority of the international community’s High Representative, who under the Dayton agreements that ended the Bosnian war 26 years ago is responsible for their civilian implementation. If passed in the Republika Srpska (RS) parliament, or implemented without formal legislative approval, Dodik’s moves would amount to secession, even if no declaration of independence is issued. Dodik appears to have the support of both Serbia and Russia, though there is some dissent within Serb ranks inside the RS.
Last weekend in a visit to Belgrade Dodik ambiguously backed off his most extreme threats, as he has often in the past, but his overall goal remains clear: sovereignty and independence for Republika Srpska.
How should the US and EU react?
They should not be fooled. Dodik will be back with his threats. The West should not wait until Dodik gets the legislative approval he seeks or acts on his own. Prevention will be far better than cure when it comes to secession. Prevention requires a military move. The EU should move, as many have advised many times, all its 600 or so forces to Brcko, the northeastern Bosnian town that was the center of gravity of the last war and will be also of the next one. NATO should reinforce the EU with a few hundred US and UK troops, which in the Balkans is still an unequivocal signal of seriousness. Without Brcko, no RS move toward secession can succeed because the RS would be split into two disconnected wings and the land line of communication with Serbia cut.
Russia will try to prevent any move of this sort. Its best bet is to veto the UN Security Council authorization for the
“Althea” European forces in Bosnia required in November. The US, UK, and EU will need to be prepared to keep their forces in Brcko whatever happens at the Security Council. While Dodik over the weekend backed off from demands that the Althea operation end, that should not fool anyone: NATO needs to make it clear it will stay in Bosnia and Herzegovina no matter what happens at the Security Council, whether in November or in six months. This can be done under authority granted by the Dayton agreements.
But the military move to Brcko will not be sufficient to end secession or the threat of secession quickly. The notoriously corrupt Dodik, already sanctioned by the US, should also be sanctioned by the EU. So too should any and all RS parliamentarians who support his defiance of the Dayton agreements, the High Representative’s powers, or the authorities of the state (central) government. Republika Srpska owes its continued existence, after a war in which it faced imminent defeat, to the Dayton agreements. Its full cooperation with implementation of those agreements as well as the HiRep’s decisions should be a sine quo non.
The West will also need to be prepared to deprive the RS government of sustenance. A secessionist entity should not benefit from any sovereign financing, including money flowing from the IMF, the World Bank, the EBRD, the EIB, and other lenders. The IMF’s Rapid Financing Instrument, the IBRD, and the EU are providing upwards of $600 million to Bosnia and Herzegovina to deal with the consequences of the COVID epidemic. They need to be prepared to make the RS portion of those (and any other funds not yet transferred) evaporate. It will be especially important to zero out institutional budgetary support to the RS. Corridor Vc, a major highway being built north to south through Bosnia, will have to be re-evaluated.
RS withdrawal from Bosnia and Herzegovina’s institutions would leave the country in constitutional and legal limbo. The only real options at that point would be reversion to the constitution of the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina, (which preceded the current constitution), implementation of the current constitution without reference to the RS, or reliance on the constitution of the 51% of the country governed as the Federation (which however has many features in common with the current dysfunctional constitution). I’m not enough of a legal beagle to know which would be best, but somehow the legal continuity of the sovereign Bosnian state would need to be ensured.
In the 1990s, Americans hoped for a Europe “whole and free.” The NATO intervention in Bosnia was intended to ensure that hope was realized in the Balkans. But Serbia with Russian support has decided that not even the Balkans will be whole and free. Moscow and Belgrade are working to split the region between autocracy and democracy, or at least to cause instability. Republika Srpska, northern Kosovo, and Montenegro’s Serb regions are all trying to peel off, with Russian and Serbian encouragement. If they succeed, they will eventually be absorbed into what Serbian President Vucic calls the “Serbian world,” better known as Greater Serbia. This would be a serious defeat for liberal democracy and a triumph for Vladimir Putin.
RS’s independence ambitions, Serbia’s territorial aspirations, and Russian destabilization efforts need to be countered. That will not be hard, if done sooner rather than later. It will require a few hundred troops in Brcko, tough sanctions, legal ingenuity, and a halt to RS financing. It is time to stop the nonsense.
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Stevenson’s army, October 23
– David Sanger explains the confusion over Biden’s Taiwan policy.-– WaPo does the same.
– Also confusion over US hypersonic missile programs: CNN says the latest one failed.
Defense One says 3 of 4 succeeded.
– NYT details how Russia is censoring the internet.
– Emma Ashford argues that Colin Powell deviated from his own military doctrine.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, October 22
– At TV town hall, Biden vows to defend Taiwan, then WH tries to walk back statements.
– Reuters says US has had 3 hypersonic missile tests lately.
– Jake Sullivan talked to MBS about Israel.
– Study says Twitter tilts right.
Democrats sometimes gerrymander their own. Here’s an outrageous story about a stealthy redrawing of a district for PG County council to screw a former councilman, term-limited a few years ago, who wants to run now. [I know and like Eric Olson, who used to represent us.]
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Charlie issued as well as Friday catchup:
– FP says Turkey wants to buy Russian fighters.
–Turkey threatens ouster of foreign ambassadors.
– FP reports split in Democrats over Taiwan.
– Fred Kaplan has different take on Chinese missile.
– FP says AUKUS worries ASEAN.
-Politico says administration opposes Space National Guard.
– But Senate appropriators added $500 million for Space Force.
– Facebook is really upping its lobbying.
– New reports show climate change threats to national security.
– Why are so many senior Democrats retiring?
– Some members still want to be bipartisan.
History lesson:WaPo says Congress didn’t do good job investigation the 1812 attack on the Capitol.
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Stevenson’s army, October 19
Colin Powell: WaPo has several articles, including a valedictory interview by Bob Woodward. Fred Kaplan discusses how Powell was outmaneuvered by Rumsfeld & Cheney. Spencer Ackerman criticizes him over the Iraq war.
Chinese missile: The DBrief cites some who see it as similar to Russia’s FOBS. Politico’s NatSecDaily cites the worriers.
Treasury releases its sanctions review report.
Former SecDef Gates warns of extreme polarization.
Senate appropriators support 5% boost in defense spending.
Ian Bremmer says big tech companies should be treated like states.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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A serious nomination that doesn’t guarantee success
The Biden Administration has announced its intention to nominate Chris Hill as ambassador in Belgrade. This is a clear break with other recent appointments, which have put career officers still in service in Pristina and Sarajevo. Chris is a career officer who retired more than a decade ago, but he is also someone well-known to President Biden and Secretary of State Blinken from his service as ambassador in Iraq, South Korea, and Poland, if not also Macedonia. Chris is a heavy, that is more akin to a personal or political friend of the President and Secretary of State than all the other ambassadors serving in the Balkans currently or Gabriel Escobar, the recently named Deputy Assistant Secretary for the region. If anything, Belgrade is a step down for Chris from his previous positions.
This nomination signals a serious intention on the part of the Administration to try to resolve the remaining war and peace issues in the Balkans, which I would define as the still not universally recognized sovereignty of Kosovo and the dysfunctionality of governance in Bosnia and Herzegovina. Both quandaries will require Belgrade’s positive contributions.
This won’t be easy. Today’s clash betweeen Serbia and Kosovo at the UN Security Council was awful. The two countries are pointed in different directions.
Serbian Foreign Minister Selakovic repeatedly accused Kosovo President Osmani of lying, claimed she represented no one but herself, and asserted she was somehow affiliated with World War II Albanian Fascists. Serbia has in recent years aligned itself far more with Russia and China than with the US and Europe, including through economic cooperation, arms purchases, increased powers for its president, and reduced space for free media, an independent judiciary, and anything but an ethnic nationalist opposition.
The 39-year-old Osmani displayed a map of Albanian mass graves in Serbia and demanded an apology for the Milosevic-era depradations against Kosovo, during which she was displaced and fled to Montenegro before getting degrees from the University of Pittsburgh. Kosovo has a new Prime Minister, Albin Kurti, committed to cleaning up corruption and maintaining the relatively free media and increasingly independent judiciary that he inherited. Kosovo aligns itself entirely with the US and Europe.
The situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina is even worse, as the division splits the country internally. The leader of its Serb entity and member of the tripartite Presdency Milorad Dodik is freezing his loyalists’ participation in the country’s institution, trying to nullify its national laws, and threatening to take command of the Serb soldiers in its army. With Russian and Serbian support, he is inching towards the independence he has declared as his goal, hoping not to provoke an effective American or European reaction before the process is irreversible. He remembers what most Americans have forgotten: even during the unipolar moment, it took NATO 3.5 years to intervene in Bosnia and Herzegoina. The international community High Representative in Bosnia, German Christian Schmidt, is doing nothing visible to fulfill his mandate to protect the Dayton accords.
Neither situation is propitious.
But an ambassador who arrives in Belgrade with ready access to the President and Secretary of State has advantages. He can more effectively claim to speak for his bosses. He can far more easily mobilize all the resources of the US government and even the private sector than less weighty appointees. Chris was a protege’ of Dick Holbrooke, who was particularly effective at pulling all the levers of American power in the same direction at the same time. Chris is also well-known in Europe, which can bring far greater civilian resources to bear than the US. And he will have enormous leverage with Kosovo, for which he served as Special Envoy in 1998 and 1999, when the Rambouillet negotiations failed and NATO attacked Serbia.
I’m not predicting success. Chris knows as well as anyone that failure is a real possibility, as he has experienced it not only in the Rambouillet negotiations but also in negotiations with North Korea while he was an Assistant Secretary of State. His tenure in Iraq during a difficult period was not crowned with glory. But if he is able to solve either the Kosovo/Serbia conundrum or the Bosnia and Herzegovina Rubik’s cube, there will be good reason to applaud. Solving both would mean a standing ovation.
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