Tag: Russia
Stevenson’s army, April 13
– WSJ says Taliban pulled out of peace talks.
-G-7 expressed concern about Russia threats to Ukraine.
– Israeli openness about Natanz attack causes concern.
– GOP Senators say nominee Kahl disclosed classified information in tweets.
-Economist says war against money laundering is being lost.
– NYT profiles new CISA nominee.
– WaPo looks at cyber budget.
– Blinken talks about Taiwan, Russia
– Last week I sent around Ezra Klein’s analysis of Biden strategy, including his comment that the economists have lost power in the administration. Today I want to share Noah Smith’s careful parsing of administration economic thinking. He sees a big plan there.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Watch this space: 10 challenges Biden wishes he didn’t have
President Biden is preoccupied with domestic issues: the economy, COVID-19, race and inequality. But of course foreign policy waits for no president.
The current picture is gloomy:
- Russia has been threatening renewed hostilities against Ukraine. Moscow is claiming it is all Kiev’s faulty, but I suspect Putin is getting nervous about improved performance of the Ukrainian Army. Perhaps he thinks it will be easier and less costly to up the ante now. Besides a new offensive would distract from his domestic problems, including that pesky political prisoner and hunger striker Alexei Navalny.
- Iran and Israel are making it difficult for the US to get back into the nuclear deal. Israel has somehow crashed the electrical supply to Iran’s uranium enrichment facility at Natanz. Tehran has amped up the IRGC/Supeme Leader criticism of President Rouhani, making it harder for him to ease conditions for Washington’s return to the nuclear deal. A vigorous Iranian reaction to the Israeli sabotage would make the Americans hesitate.
- Peace talks between Afghanistan and the Taliban for a transitional power-sharing government are not going well. How could they? The Taliban want an Afghanistan in which President Ghani would have no place. Ghani wants an Afghanistan in which the Taliban would have no place. Powersharing requires a minimum of mutual tolerance that appears lacking.
- North Korea is renewing its missile and nuclear threats. President Trump pretty much poisoned the diplomatic well with Pyongyang by meeting three times with Kim Jong-un without reaching a serious agreement. Kim seems to have decided he can manage without one, so long as his nuclear weapons and missiles threaten South Korea, Japan, and even the continental United States.
- China is menacing Taiwan. I doubt Beijing wants to face the kind of military defense and popular resistance an invasion would entail, but ratcheting up the threat forces Taipei to divert resources and puts an additional issue on the negotiating table with Washington, which doesn’t want to have to come to Taipei’s defense.
- Syria’s Assad is consolidating control and preparing for further pushes into Idlib or the northeast. While unquestionably stretched thin militarily and economically, Damascus no longer faces any clear and present threat to Assad’s hold on power. He hasn’t really won, but the relatively liberal opposition has definitely lost, both to him and to Islamist extremists.
- Central Americans are challenging American capacity to manage its southern border. The increase of asylum seekers, especially children, presents a quandary to the Biden Administration: shut them out as President Trump did, or let them in and suffer the domestic political consequences. Biden has put Vice President Harris in charge, but it will be some time before she can resurrect processing of asylum seekers in their home countries and also get the kind of aid flowing to them that will cut back on the economic motives for migration.
- The Houthis aren’t playing nice. America’s cut in military and intelligence support for Saudi Arabia and the UAE is giving their Yemeni adversaries a chance to advance on the last remaining major population center in the north still nominally held by President Hadi’s shambolic government. If the Houthis take Marib, the consequences will be catastrophic.
- Addis Ababa isn’t either. Africa’s second most populous country, Ethiopia, has gone to war against its own Tigray region, which had defied Addis’ authority on control of the military and holding elections. The Americans want Addis to ease up and allow humanitarian assistance and media in. Ethiopia’s reforming Prime Minister Ahmed Abiy is playing rope-a-dope with the Americans and keeping up the pressure on the Tigrayans.
- You haven’t heard much about it lately, but nothing good is happening in Venezuela, where President Maduro has survived efforts to oust him and now is enjoying one of what must be at least 9 lives.
Biden deserves a lot of credit for what he is doing domestically, and he is the best versed president on foreign affairs in decades. But the international pressures are building. It is only a matter of time before one or more of these ten issues, or a half dozen others, climb to the top of his to-do list. None of them are going to be easy to handle. Watch this space.
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Peace Picks | April 12 – April 16, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- The Future of US Security in Space | April 12, 2021 | 1:30 PM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Activity in space is rapidly expanding with an explosion of actors and commerce in recent years. More than seventy nations operate national space programs, making international space governance prime for a reboot. Private-sector investment in unique space technologies and more affordable space launch creates the exciting prospect of a space commerce boom. Meanwhile, the increasing salience of space in great-power competition and counterspace capabilities threaten freedom of access. Space exploration will likely evolve at pace over the next decades, offering potential resource abundance and the ability to expand the frontiers of space development. The United States and its allies require a strategy to meet the moment and shape the strategic landscape through 2050 and beyond.
Speakers:
Frederick Kempe: President & CEO, Atlantic Council
Gen. James E. Cartwright: Former Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Hon. Deborah Lee James: Former Secretary of the Air Force
Hon. Charles F. Bolden Jr.: 12th NASA Administrator and Astronaut
Dr. Scott Pace: Former Executive Secretary, US National Space Council
Jennifer Griffin (moderator): National Security Correspondent, Fox News
Col. Andrew R. Morgan: Astronaut, NASA
Lt. Col. Christopher Mulder: Senior US Air Force Fellow, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security
Debra Facktor: Head of US Space Systems, Airbus US Space & Defense, Inc.
Ellen Chang: Head of Naval Portfolio, H4X Labs
Gregg Maryniak: Co-Founder and Director, XPRIZE Foundation
Dr. Matthew Daniels: Senior Fellow, Center for Security and Emerging Technology
Dr. Jana Robinson: Managing Director and Space Security Program Director, Prague Security Studies Institute
Jacqueline Feldscher (moderator): National Security and Space Reporter, POLITICO
2. Oscar-Nominated “Hunger Ward” Documentary: Inside Yemen’s Humanitarian Crisis | April 12, 2021 | 7:00 PM ET | United States Institute of Peace| Register Here
The conflict in Yemen has precipitated the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. According to the United Nations, two-thirds of Yemenis need humanitarian assistance to survive. Meanwhile, more than 16 million people will face hunger this year, with nearly 50,000 Yemenis in famine-like conditions. Almost half of Yemen’s children under age five will suffer from acute malnutrition, including 400,000 who could die without urgent treatment.
Filmed from inside two of the most active therapeutic feeding centers in Yemen, “Hunger Ward” documents two female health care workers fighting to thwart the spread of starvation against the backdrop of Yemen’s raging conflict. The film provides an unflinching portrait of Dr. Aida Alsadeeq and Nurse Mekkia Mahdi as they try to save the lives of hunger-stricken children within a population on the brink of famine.
Join USIP as we host a screening of the Oscar-nominated documentary “Hunger Ward,” followed by a discussion of the film and the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Yemen with acclaimed journalist and PBS NewsHour anchor Judy Woodruff, Academy Award-nominated filmmaker Skye Fitzgerald, and former U.N. Resident Coordinator for Yemen and current USIP President and CEO Lise Grande.
This program is presented in partnership with MTV Documentary Films.
Speakers:
Lise Grande
President and CEO, U.S. Institute of Peace
Judy Woodruff
Anchor and Managing Editor, PBS NewsHour
Skye Fitzgerald
Director and Academy Award Nominee, “Hunger Ward”
3. The Nexus of Climate Change, Fragility, and Peacebuilding | April 13, 2021 | 10:00 AM ET | Wilson Center| Register Here
Join the Wilson Center and USIP for a timely discussion with experts on the linkages between climate and fragility, and how a more integrated approach to climate and fragility policies and responses can simultaneously strengthen resilience outcomes and minimize threats to peace and prosperity.
The Biden administration is taking action to center climate change in its foreign policy and national security agendas, preparing to dramatically curb U.S. emissions, and has recognized climate change’s connection to injustice. Yet, one thing has been missing from the administration’s climate agenda: The linkages between climate change action and opportunities to build peace. While climate impacts can drive conflict and insecurity, well-designed climate action can foster collaboration and promote peace, and strategic investments in peacebuilding can yield climate resilience.
The Global Fragility Act (GFA) and recently released “U.S. Strategy to Prevent Conflict and Promote Stabilization” could provide an important avenue to elevate and leverage the Biden administration’s bold climate agenda to address instability and build peace. Bridging the policy gap between climate action and peacebuilding is a crucial first step to a more climate resilient and peaceful future. In fact, research shows sustainable peace requires a climate-sensitive lens, and sustainable climate responses require a conflict-sensitive lens.
Join the Wilson Center and USIP for a timely discussion with experts on the linkages between climate and fragility, and how a more integrated approach to climate and fragility policies and responses can simultaneously strengthen resilience outcomes and minimize threats to peace and prosperity.
Speakers:
Joseph Hewitt: Vice President, Policy, Learning, and Strategy, U.S. Institute of Peace
Cynthia Brady (moderator): Global Fellow; Former Peacebuilding and Resilience Advisor, USAID
Dina Esposito: Vice President of Technical Leadership, Mercy Corps
Alice Hill: David M. Rubenstein Senior Fellow for Energy and the Environment, Council on Foreign Relations; former Senior Director, Resilience Policy, National Security Council
Liz Hume: Acting President and CEO, Alliance for Peacebuilding
Erin Sikorsky: Deputy Director, The Center for Climate and Security; former Deputy Director, Strategic Futures Group, National Intelligence Council
4. Navigating Humanitarian Access During Covid-19: Towards Localization | April 14, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | CSIS | Register Here
The Covid-19 pandemic created unprecedented challenges in the delivery of humanitarian assistance worldwide. Global lockdowns and travel restrictions hindered humanitarian access for international aid organizations attempting to reach vulnerable populations and impeded the mobility of civilians displaced by armed conflict. As a result of these additional access constraints, national and local humanitarian actors were tasked with increased leadership and responsibility to deliver life-saving assistance.
Speakers:
Dr. Rebecca Brubaker: Senior Policy Adviser and Project Director at the United Nations University Centre for Policy
Research (UNU-CPR),
Eranda Wijewickrama: Leader at the Humanitarian Advisory Group,
Smruti Patel: Founder and Co-Director of the Global Mentoring Initiative.
Jacob Kurtzer: Director and Senior Fellow, Humanitarian Agenda
Kimberly Flowers: Senior Associate (Non-resident), Humanitarian Agenda and Global Food Security Progra
5. UAE: US Policy In The Middle East And Prospects For Peace And Economic Growth In A Troubled Region | April 14, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | Hoover Institution | Watch Here
In this episode of Battlegrounds, H.R. McMaster and Yousef Al Otaiba discuss the Abraham Accords, the humanitarian crisis centered on ongoing crises in Syria and Yemen, the threat from Iran, and great power competition in the Middle East.
Speakers:
Yousef Al Otaiba: United Arab Emirates (UAE) Ambassador to the United States (US)
H. R. McMaster: Fouad and Michelle Ajami Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University
6. Russia’s Dangerous Military Escalation with Ukraine| April 14, 2021 | 9:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Moscow is amassing forces on Ukraine’s eastern border and in northern occupied Crimea. The Kremlin’s propaganda machine is working overtime talking about Kyiv’s aggressive actions and spreading disinformation that Ukraine is shelling civilians in the Donbas. Russian President Vladimir Putin is unhappy—Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy took away the media channels from Putin’s ally Viktor Medvedchuk, and a concerned United States conducted a series of high-level telephone calls to reassure Kyiv and demonstrate strong international support for Ukraine in this crisis. Why is this all happening now? What makes these military actions different from the leadup to Moscow’s invasion in 2014? Will Putin actually strike, and what should the West do now?
Speakers:
Oleksiy Honcharuk: Former Prime Minister of Ukraine; Distinguished Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center
Evelyn Farkas: Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia
Ambassador Daniel Fried: Weiser Family Distinguished Fellow at the Atlantic Council
Melinda Haring (moderator): Deputy Director of the Eurasia Center, to assess Russia’s recent military buildup near the Ukrainian border
7. Measuring Democracy in Central and Eastern Europe: Do Scores Matter? | April 15, 2021 | 8:30AM ET | German Marshall Fund | Register Here
Global democracy has been in decline for fifteen years, with Central and Eastern European countries leading the trend of autocratization in the Western world. However, while main democracy monitoring projects offer a uniform view on the decline of democracy and rising trends of authoritarianism in the region, including in EU and NATO member states, their warnings remain a cry in the wilderness. With domestic threats to democracy remaining largely disregarded, the debate revolving around the rule of law in the EU disguises the true nature of authoritarian trends, helping to maintain the legitimacy of non-democratic or barely democratic governments.
Why are the results of different efforts to measure democracy falling on deaf ears and remaining largely disregarded at the political level? When and why did measuring democracy largely lose its political and policy relevance, and how could this be re-established? And what are the major democratic and authoritarian trends and lessons learned in Central and Eastern Europe that European politicians and stakeholders should not ignore?
The German Marshall Fund of the United States is pleased to invite you to an online event and discussion that examines these and other questions related to the challenges and results of measuring democracy in Central and Eastern Europe.
Speakers:
Zselyke Csáky: Research Director, Europe & Eurasia, Freedom House
Sabine Donner: Senior Expert, Bertelsmann Transformation Index
Juraj Medzihorsky: Research Associate, V-Dem
Daniel Hegedüs (moderator): Fellow for Central Europe, German Marshall Fund of the United States
8. Bullets Not Ballots: Success in Counterinsurgency Warfare | April 15, 2021 | 12:15 PM ET | Harvard Belfar Center | Register Here
In Bullets Not Ballots, Jacqueline L. Hazelton challenges the claim that winning “hearts and minds” is critical to successful counterinsurgency campaigns. Good governance, this conventional wisdom holds, gains the besieged government popular support, denies support to the insurgency, and enables military and political victory. Hazelton argues that major counterinsurgent successes since World War II have resulted not through democratic reforms but rather through the use of military force against civilians and the co-optation of rival elites.
Hazelton offers new analyses of five historical cases frequently held up as examples of the effectiveness of good governance in ending rebellions—the Malayan Emergency, the Greek Civil War, the Huk Rebellion in the Philippines, the Dhofar rebellion in Oman, and the Salvadoran Civil War—to show that, although unpalatable, it was really brutal repression and bribery that brought each conflict to an end. By showing how compellence works in intrastate conflicts, Bullets Not Ballots makes clear that whether or not the international community decides these human, moral, and material costs are acceptable, responsible policymaking requires recognizing the actual components of counterinsurgent success—and the limited influence that external powers have over the tactics of counterinsurgent elites.
Speakers:
Jacqueline L. Hazelton: Associate, International Security Program
9. Defense Against the Dark Arts in Space | April 15, 2021 | 8:30AM ET | CSIS | Register Here
Analysts from CSIS and the Secure World Foundation will discuss way to protect space systems from counterspace weapons, including active and passive defenses, strategy and policy measures, and diplomatic initiatives.
Speakers:
Victoria Samson: Washington Office Director, Secure World Foundation
David Edmondson: Policy Head, Space Security and Advanced Threats
Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan: Director of the Centre for Security, Strategy and Technology, Observer Research Foundation
Frank Rose: Co-Director of the Center for Security, Strategy and Technology
Todd Harrison: Director of Defence Budget Analysis and Director of the Aerospace Security Project
10. Great Power Challenges to the Transatlantic Alliance: Reinventing Leadership for a Stable Future | April 16, 2021 | 10:00AM ET | Carnegie Endowment | Watch Here
After a tenuous four years for the transatlantic alliance, the Biden administration has ushered in new hope for its future and made clear intentions to strengthen ties with European allies. But the challenges today are not centered around blunting frontal assaults by tanks; they turn on meeting competitive and containing malign activities by Russia and China in outlying regions (Black Sea), out of area (Iran) and new technological planes, while carving out opportunities to cooperate on vital security and trade issues. How best to renew the transatlantic alliance amid these dynamic trends in the security and technological landscape?
Join us for a conversation featuring Vicki Birchfield, Erik Brattberg, Philip Breedlove, and Suzanne DiMaggio in conversation with Suzanne Kelly, with special remarks by Sam Nunn on the path forward for the transatlantic alliance.
Speakers:
Suzanne Kelly: CEO & publisher of the Cipher Brief; Former CNN’s intelligence correspondent before spending two years in the private sector.
Vicki L. Birchfield: Professor in the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at Georgia Tech, co-director of the Center for European and Transatlantic Studies, and director of the study abroad program on the European Union and Transatlantic Relations.
Erik Brattberg: Director of the Europe Program and a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washingto
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Stevenson’s army, April 10
– In week 12 of the Conduct [of Foreign Policy] course, we’ll have an exercise where you try to coordinate administration responses to breaking news items. Some officials may push for a political spin. That happens in government, as WaPo discovered from emails between officials at HHS bragging about getting changes in CDC announcements more favorable to Trump positions.
– OMB has the new skinny budget. It shows a small increase for defense, and a 12% increase for international affairs spending. A perennial fight over policies and budgets comes between service chiefs and combatant commanders, as Real Clear Politics reports.
– NYT considers Moscow’s motivations in military moves toward Ukraine.
– Profesor and former APSA Fellow Brian Alexander hosted an interesting program on changing norms in Congress. Take a look.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, April 7
– Next week, for the first time since 2019, the two intelligence committees will hold open hearings with the leading IC officials for worldwide threat briefings.
– No leaks from the Biden White House, WaPo says.
-No change for now on land mine policy.
– Russia talks to India about arms.
-An anti-waste group criticizes DOD’s unfunded priorities lists.
[Background: SecDef Gates tried to block them.]
– Academic study of Jan 6 rioters finds surprises.
Late additions:
Likely special envoy on Nord Stream 2.
While Xi appeals to Merkel.
And AP says US worries about Taiwan.
And USN does a FONOP.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, April 5
– Something’s happening in Jordan. Not sure what.
– NYT rerports secret talks with Taliban.
– While Afghan president has own peace plan.
-CNN reports Russian buildup in Arctic.
– WaPo has different perspective on US economy
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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