Tag: Russia
Stevenson’s army, December 24
The president has vetoed the NDAA [message here]; the House will try to override on Monday.
RollCall reports that the first State Dept authorization bill in two decades was dropped from inclusion in the NDAA because of WH demands from Ivanka Trump.
The omnibus appropriations and covid relief bill faces an uncertain future. If sent to WH today, Congress could avoid a pocket veto with override votes by the morning of Jan 3.Meanwhile, Speaker Pelosi promises a unanimous consent motion today to have $2000 stimulus checks, as requested by Trump. GOP leader McCarthy may offer his own UC to strip the foreign aid money from the bill.
In other news, the administration considers closing the Baghdad embassy after the recent attacks from uncertain sources.
Administration wants $500 million arms sale to Saudis.
How to respond to Russian cyber hack. Fred Kaplan has measured response.
Just Security writer calls for legal agreements drawing the line between espionage and attacks.
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Stevenson’s army, December 23
Today the president must veto the NDAA or it will become law without his signature. WIll he carry through on his threat? [He is supposed to fly to Florida at 4pm.]
Trump surprised his own staff by disparaging the omnibus bill and hinting at a veto, though his complaints were more about the foreign aid in the appropriations measures combined with covid relief. If he vetoes that, government will have to shut down next week.
Among his pardons, Trump included the 4 Blackwater contractors convicted of killing Iraqi civilians.
The Senate can’t organize itself and begin nomination hearings until the Georgia results are clear.
AP has numbers for the Trump legacy.
David Ignatius also believes that the Russia hack was espionage, not an act of war. Fred Kaplan has more background.
NYT says US Navy has a secret mission against Venezuela but off the coast of Africa.
Sweden considers joining NATO.
Trump wants to politicize 88% of OMB personnel.
FP details how China used stolen data to catch US spies.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, December 22
In the Taiwan Strait and in Strait of Hormuz.
FP says China exposed US agents in Africa.
Politico mentions some of the extra items included in the Covid Relief & Omnibus appropriations bill Congress passed Monday night: Among the other items included: a hard-fought bipartisan agreement to protect patients from receiving “surprise” medical bills, a compromise version of an annual authorization for the intelligence community, the creation of two new Smithsonian museums, tax extenders, a Tibet human rights bill, and a ban on race-day horse doping, just to name a few.
Congress will come back to vote on NDAA veto overrride.
And here’s the 2021 Senate calendar.
Prof Brands has nuanced ideas for responding to Russian hack.
Mexican military gains in power and role in society.
Report says DOD needs to look out for extremists in the ranks.
Other signers reaffirm commitment to JCPOA.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, December 21
With corrections to links:
– Former SecDef Bob Gates supports Biden priorities and adds details.
– GOP Congressman opposes waiver for Austin.
– Former HPSCI chairman calling Russian hack espionage urges proportionate response.
– Law prof assesses NSA/CyberCommand split. NYT has more reactions.
– NYT reports neo-Nazis infiltrate German police.
– FP sees problems from currency manipulation decision.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks | December 21 – December 25, 2020
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
1. The Islamic Defenders Front and Political Polarization in Indonesia | December 20, 2020 | 9:00 – 10:015 PM ET | Yusof Ishak Institute | Register Here
Amid growing religious polarization since 2019, the return from self-exile of Islamic Defenders Front (FPI) leader Rizieq Shihab to Indonesia in November has revitalized the opposition movement against President Joko Widodo. Islamic populism is set to be a major force at the 2024 presidential election. In the near term, however, Rizieq Shihab’s fate is uncertain as the government seeks to curtail his activities and prevent mass mobilizations in the capital. On December 7 a clash between security services and a convoy in which Rizieq was travelling left six of his followers dead. In this webinar, Dr Quinton Temby analyses these recent developments, drawing on social media data to illustrate how Rizieq’s return has played into online polarization between government and opposition activists. With physical mobilization restricted due to the pandemic, and the details of the recent clash disputed, Twitter has been an arena for hashtag battles between different actors seeking to control the narrative. Dr Temby concludes by reflecting on the prospects for Islamic populism in Indonesia and why social media is likely to be critical to any populist success.
Speakers
Dr Quinton Temby: Visiting Fellow, Regional Social and Cultural Studies Programme at the ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute.
2. Political Fallout: Nuclear Weapons Testing and the Making of a Global Environmental Crisis | December 21, 2020 | 4:00 – 5:30 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
The Partial Test Ban Treaty of 1963 is typically viewed as marking a first step toward nuclear arms control. But Toshihiro Higuchi argues that it was also one of the first international agreements that addressed a truly global, human-induced environmental problem. By tracing a worldwide struggle to determine the biological effects, social acceptability, and policy implications of radioactive fallout, Higuchi reexamines the Cold War in the context of the Anthropocene – an era in which humans are confronting environmental changes of their own making.
Speakers
Toshihiro Higuchi: Assistant Professor, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Christian F. Ostermann, moderator: Director, History and Public Policy Program; Cold War International History Project; North Korea Documentation Project; Nuclear Proliferation International History Project; Woodrow Wilson Center
Eric Arnesen, moderator: Former Fellow; Professor of History, The George Washington University. Director, National History Center of the American Historical Association.
3. Cyber War and Cyber Peace: Past and Future Cyber Clashes in the Middle East | December 22, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Although the cyber domain is an emerging field of conflict, it is no longer a new frontier – many battles in cyberspace have been fought and it is imperative they be understood to begin imagining how the future of warfare online may look.
As the United States, the Middle East, and policy community globally begin to consider how a Biden administration will approach conflict and cyber conflict in the region, this panel is an opportunity to study the history of cyber warfare in the Middle East as context for the policy challenges that will arise in the next four years. This panel is sponsored by SentinelOne, a cybersecurity solution encompassing AI-powered prevention, detection, response and hunting in a single autonomous platform.
Speakers
Selena Larson: Senior cyber threat analyst, Dragos, Inc.
James Shires: Assistant professor, Institute for Security and Global Affairs, Leiden University
Thom Langford, moderator: Security advocate, SentinelOne
Additional speakers TBD
4. Putin’s playbook: Lessons from the operation to kill Alexei Navalny | December 22, 2020 | 10:00 – 11:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Bellingcat, CNN, the Insider, and der Spiegel have produced an explosive investigative report on the elaborate FSB efforts to poison Alexei Navalny with a Novichok nerve agent. Navalny survived and has resumed his role as an active player, amplifying the identities of the team that allegedly worked to kill him and laying responsibility for the operation at Russian President Vladimir Putin’s feet—all while promising to return to Russia. All of this raises the question: Why does the Kremlin regard Navalny as so large a threat, and when was the line crossed to start plotting his death? What does a recovered and newly active Navalny mean for Russia’s politics, and how will Russia’s relationship change with key states such as Germany, where Navalny has been recuperating? Russia has long struggled to see a viable alternative to Vladimir Putin—is Navalny that alternative?
Speakers
Christo Grozev: Lead Russia Investigator, Bellingcat
Irina Borogan: investigative journalist and Deputy Editor, Agentura.ru
John Sipher: Nonresident Senior Fellow, Eurasia Center; CEO & Co-Founder, Spycraft Entertainment
Ambassador John Herbst, moderator: director of the Eurasia Center
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Stevenson’s army, December 20
WaPo has a long review of the administration’s mishandling of the pandemic.
What jumps out at me is how amateurish and crony-coddling Kushner’s efforts were and how Scott Atlas dominated and derailed the Task Force.
NYT has leaked Chinese emails [reprinted in Chinese with English translations] showing efforts to censor news about the coronavirus.
Trump disputes Pompeo on Russian role in cyber hacks.
WSJ says administration wants to split NSA and Cyber Command
RollCall analysts says GOP has moved farther right in recent decades than Democrats moved left.
Politico asks, Is Trump cracking?
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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