peacefare.net

Sudan is the next big thing

and this conference at NDU December 16 will be a good opportunity to get up to date.

For those who need a reminder, the Southern Sudan independence referendum is scheduled for January 9, followed by a 6 month transition period.  It is going to be an enormous challenge to prevent this from becoming a mess.

A negotiated solution for Abyei?

Voter registration for the South Sudan referendum on independence January 9 starts Monday and extends until December 1.  Preparations are reported to be adequate.

The problem is Abyei:  there is no agreement yet on who can register there for the separate referendum on whether it goes north or south.  That could spell trouble.  The U.S. is telling the Security Council it wants a negotiated solution in Abyei, rather than a referendum.  This is the classic “who does it belong to” problem.  Remember Eastern Slavonia, Brcko, and Kirkuk?

Sudan is losing its race against time

Sudan’s two referenda–in the South and in Abyei–on January 9 are in the Rift Valley Institute’s words “the most critical events in the contemporary history of Sudan.”

Get ready for a rough ride as Southern Sudan looks to independence without having settled the many issues that threaten to disrupt the process laid out five years ago in the Comprehensive Peace Agreement.  No better primer than this one:

Race Against Time – Aly Verjee – 30 Oct 2010.pdf (application/pdf Object).