Tag: Syria
The fracturing Levant
As events in Syria continue to unfold, it is essential to understand the nature of the conflict. On Tuesday, Emile Hokayem, a Senior Fellow for Regional Security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, delivered a presentation based on his recent book, Syria’s Uprising and the Fracturing of the Levant. Based on repeated visits to Syria after the uprising, the book relies on a range of primary sources such as fieldwork and interviews with all sides of the conflict. Steven Simon, the executive director of IISS-US, moderated the event.
Before the uprising, analysts had often exaggerated the power of the Syrian state, Hokayem proclaimed. While the Syrian state was not particularly weak, its resources, industrial base, alliances, and human capital pale in comparison to regional countries that had similar ambitions, namely Iraq and Egypt. However, Hafez al-Assad’s genius lay in his statecraft. While this made Syria a stronger state, the uprising has brought Syria down. It is now a weak state marked by divisions and internal rivalries. Read more
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Peace picks June 24-28
Summer doldrums have not yet arrived:
1. The Chinese Cyber Challenge: How to Address the Growing Threat, Atlantic Council, Monday, June 24 / 2:00pm – 3:30pm
Venue: Army & Navy Club
901 17th St, NW, Washington, DC 20006
Speakers: Dmitri Alperovitch, James Mulvenon, Gregory J. Rattray, Jason Healey
In recent months, the United States has gone public in a series of speeches by senior officials about Chinese cyber espionage. In an address in March to the Asia Society, outgoing national security adviser Thomas E. Donilon said “sophisticated, targeted” thefts of confidential information and technology were coming from China “on an unprecedented scale.” US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel also accused Beijing of involvement in cyber espionage in a speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue, openly blaming the Chinese government and military for “cyber intrusions” into sensitive US information systems. A summit meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Barack Obama last week brought cybersecurity to the center of US-China relations, but failed to result in any agreement. Cyber espionage destabilizes every facet of the US-China relationship, and how the United States addresses these problems will be a harbinger of its overall approach to the challenge China poses to the global commons.
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Hezbollah in Syria is at risk
Hezbollah’s intervention in Syria has captured media attention and expert analysis around the world. On Tuesday, the Center for Transatlantic Relations (CTR) at Johns Hopkins SAIS and the Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique (FRS) organized Hezbollah After Assad, featuring Bilal Saab, executive director and head of research at the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis (INEGMA) North America and Jean-Luc Marret, a Senior Fellow at FRS and CTR and associate professor and senior lecturer in multiple French universities. Ambassador Andras Simonyi, the Managing Director of CTR, facilitated the discussion.
Bilal Saab reminded that a conflict between Sunnis and Shiites in the Middle East is something that Hezbollah has warned against since its own founding. Such a conflict would not only distract Hezbollah from fighting Israel, but could also alienate the Shiite support base for the organization. Despite knowing this, Hezbollah has acted in a way that increases the likelihood of such a conflict. What explains Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria?
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Google hangout on Syria
I did a Google hangout on Syria and the region this morning with Jim Miller of IRD. Please have a look:
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A Wolf in sheep’s clothing?
As the Arab uprisings continue to unfold, it is unclear how countries in the Middle East will act on issues of plurality and human rights. On Monday, the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars hosted a talk on the Future of Religious Minorities in the Middle East. Congressman Frank Wolf, co-chairman of the Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission, delivered a presentation on religious minorities in the region, based on a series of visits to the Middle East.
Wolf reminded that oppression of religious minorities is not new in the region. The Iranian government repressed its Baha’i minority since 1979, killing hundreds of its leaders and dismissing tens of thousands from jobs. The recent uprisings in the region have exacerbated the situation. The Arab Spring “devolved into Winter for many of the most vulnerable in these societies—foremost among them the ancient Christian communities,” according to the Congressman.
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You break it, you buy it
I spent a frustrating half hour on Warren Olney’s fine show “To the Point” yesterday. Frustrating largely because my phone connection was bad, which meant I had to switch lines, limiting the time I had to intervene. But the show was a good one, with Danielle Pletka, Steve Simon and Amr al Azam.
The main point I wanted to make is that the Administration’s decision on arming the revolutionaries is part of an effort to gain a political settlement. Obama not only wants Asad out but also Sunni extremists blocked from taking over. The Americans also want to limit their engagement to the minimum necessary. Continuing escalation will not serve the purpose of a political settlement or allow them to get off cheaply. Read more
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