Tag: Syria
Levant maelstrom
“Truce” – A caricture by world-renowned Syrian cartoonest Ali Farzat who once had his fingers crushed by Syrian security forces
The Eid al Adha truce broke down yesterday afternoon in Syria, with activists reporting 292 breaches by regime forces, who allegedly killed 116 people. Anti-regime demonstrations numbered 332. Damascus saw one big blast and many clashes. This strikes me as a particularly comprehensive list of reasons why the ceasefire could not last, with obvious bias towards the rebellion. Who wouldn’t be biased in that direction after 19 months of watching the regime kill its own people?
What now?
First there is the blame game. Regime and rebels will seek to pin the quick breakdown of the ceasefire on the other side. Neither will want its backers to react by cutting off arms, money and other support. The regime has little to worry about. The Russians and Iranians seem to be firm in supporting Bashar al Assad. The insurgents have more reason to be concerned. Turkey is getting wobbly. Washington is preoccupied until November 7 (and maybe for a few months after, if Romney wins). Saudi Arabia and Qatar are supplying ample arms and money but not seeing clear results. Extreme Islamists are increasingly prominent in the armed rebellion.
Brahimi will try hard to reinstate the ceasefire, arguing that each side should show restraint and police its own forces. This will work only if the rebels and the regime figure there is not much to be gained by continuing to fight. Even if they decide they have reached the “mutually hurting stalemate” that provides an opportunity for a ceasefire, it is difficult to see how it can work without third-party monitoring. Given the fate of the Arab League and UN observers earlier in the year, who would want to field another monitoring group?
I fear we are headed further into the abyss. With Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey increasingly at risk from spillover, the Levant may be condemned to a maelstrom of conflict whose eventual consequences could include assassinations, collapsed states, sectarian and ethnic war, economic implosion and safe haven for terrorists. Spread of the violence to the Gulf could make things worse. This cannot be ruled out. Even if Iran does not encourage it, Shia sentiment in Iraq, Bahrain and the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia could significantly increase sectarian tensions.
The longer this goes on, the worse it is likely to get. Whoever wins the American presidency on November 6 needs to be thinking quickly about how to restore a modicum of order in the Levant. There are many options, none of them obvious winners:
1. Heavy arms for the (relative) good guys
2. No-fly zone (all of Syria or part)
3. Safe area inside Syria along the Turkish border
4. Political, economic and military support to liberated “ink spots” within Syria
5. Indictment of Bashar al Assad
6. Regime decapitation
7. Diplomatic push on the opposition to go to negotiations with the regime
These could also be mixed and matched. I’m sure there are other ideas out there as well, but this will do for a start. The important thing is block the descent into a regional maelstrom that will last for years and cause untold damage.
PS: The Red Cross on the humanitarian situation:
PS, October 29: Did I get Brahimi right?
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Peace requires sacrifice
Eid al Adha, the feast that commemorates Abraham’s willingness to sacrifice Ishmael (and Ishmael’s acceptance) in the Koranic version of the story, is starting relatively quietly in Syria. The ceasefire that both the Syrian government and some of the revolutionaries had agreed with UN envoy Lakhdar Brahimi, and the UN Security Council endorsed, has reportedly held in much of the country for the first few hours after Friday morning prayers today. Demonstrators are taking the opportunity to go to the street.
I have my doubts that the situation is “ripe.” The conflict is far from over. Both sides are hurting, but there is no “mutually hurting stalemate.” The rebellion has been gaining ground in Aleppo in recent days. Some of the rebels feel they have something to gain from continuing to fight. The Syrian army statement accepting the ceasefire was equivocal. It reserved the right to respond to the following:
First, the continuation of the armed terrorist groups’ gunfire against civilians and government forces and attacking public and private properties, in addition to using booby-trapped cars and explosive devices.
Second, attempts of the armed terrorist groups to reinforce their positions as of the beginning of this announcement or getting munitions or members.
Third, the facilitation of neighboring countries to let terrorists pass across the borders to Syria.
On the rebel side, the Free Syria Army accepted the ceasefire, but the radical Al-Nusra Front,which the Institute for the Study of War describes as a homegrown Salafi-jihadist group, did not, thus guaranteeing that the three conditions would not be met. It is hard to imagine a ceasefire holding for long under these circumstances.
That however doesn’t mean Brahimi was wrong to try. He should keep on trying. The ceasefire will give relative moderates both within the regime and among the opposition an opportunity to reassert themselves. He needs to give these people opportunities to express their opposition to continued fighting, reaching beyond the more belligerent components of both sides to find a constituency that will support a political process.
There will be many ceasefire “violations,” and the likelihood of a return to fighting is still high. The ceasefire has no monitoring mechanism. After a few days (or even a few hours) of rest, fighters on both sides may feel like going at it again. The regime is not going to want peaceful demonstrations showing the strength of the rebellion or rearming of the Free Syrian Army. The armed rebels are not going to want the regime to use the ceasefire to regain its balance and reset its strategy, which has accomplished little beyond destruction so far.
Brahimi and his team will need enormous patience and commitment. I wish them well. They will need the kind of faith Abraham and his son demonstrated. Peace requires sacrifice.
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This week’s peace picks
There are many options this week, including several with a focus on the approaching US elections.
1. Iraq Energy Outlook, Monday October 22, 9:30 AM – 11:00 AM, CSIS
Venue: CSIS, 1800 K Street NW, Washington DC, 20006, B1 Conference Room
Speakers: Fatih Birol, Jabir Habeb
The CSIS Energy and National Security Program is pleased to host Dr. Fatih Birol, Chief Economist and Director of Global Energy Economics at the IEA, to present highlights from the IEA’s recent World Energy Outlook Special Report, the Iraq Energy Outlook.
Iraq is already the world’s third-largest oil exporter. It has the resources and intention to increase its oil production vastly. Contracts are already in place.Will Iraq’s ambitions be realised? And what would the implications be for Iraq’s economy and for world oil markets? The obstacles are formidable: political, logistical, legal, regulatory, financial, lack of security and sufficient skilled labour. One example: in 2011, grid electricity could meet only 55% of demand.
The International Energy Agency has studied these issues with the support and close co-operation of the government of Iraq and many other leading officials, commentators, industry representatives and international experts. The report examines the role of the energy sector in the Iraqi economy today and in the future, assesses oil and gas revenues and investment needs, provides a detailed analysis of oil, gas and electricity supply through to 2035, highlighting the challenges of infrastructure development and water availability, and spells out the associated opportunities and risks, both for world oil markets and for Iraq’s economy and energy sector.
RSVP for this event to energy@csis.org.
2. Religion, Violence, and Coexistence, Monday October 22, 10:00 AM – 12:00 PM, USIP
Venue: USIP, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC
Speakers: Suzan Johnson Cook, Haris Tarin, Marc Gopin, Manal Omar, Susan Hayward
The Internet release of a trailer for the anti-Islam film “The Innocence of Muslims” recently sparked protests around the world, some of which turned violent. These events serve as a stark reminder of the relationship between freedom of expression, religious coexistence, religious freedom, violence and security.
On October 22, 2012, the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP) will host a panel discussion about civil society’s role in preventing and addressing provocative statements of religious bias and violent responses to it. The panelists will discuss the complementarities and tensions between the freedoms of expression and religion, use of the media in fomenting religious discrimination, and how to work with the media to promote respect for all religious traditions. The conversation will focus on how these issues are playing out in the context of political transitions occurring throughout the Middle East and North Africa, and the way in which civil society and the U.S. government can collaborate constructively to advance peaceful religious coexistence, freedom, and security.
This public discussion is co-sponsored with the Office of International Religious Freedom at the U.S. Department of State.
Register for this event here.
3. Adaptable Autocrats: Regime Power in Egypt and Syria, Monday October 22, 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM, Woodrow Wilson Center
Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20004, 6th Floor
Speaker: Joshua Stacher
Why did the uprisings in Egypt and Syria turn out so differently? In his recent book, Adaptable Autocrats, Joshua Stacher argues the different outcomes are a product of how executive power flowed before the protests began. While popular mobilization challenged both regimes, Egypt’s Mubarak could be replaced as the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) slid into the executive’s role to adapt the system, while the option of changing the ruling coalition still has not occurred in Syria. Based on years of field research in Egypt and Syria, Stacher lays out a template for understanding the Arab uprisings and the turmoil that has followed.
Register for this event here.
4. AFSA Book Notes: “America’s Other Army”, Monday October 22, 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM, American Foreign Service Association
Venue: American Foreign Service Association, 2101 E Street NW, Washington, DC 20037
Speaker: Nicholas Kralev
“America’s Other Army” brings the high-flying world of international diplomacy down to earth and puts a human face on a mysterious profession that has undergone a dramatic transformation since September 11, 2001. Through the stories of American diplomats, the book explains how their work affects millions of people in the United States and around the world every day, and how it contributes directly to U.S. security and prosperity. It shows a more inclusive American diplomacy that has moved beyond interacting with governments and has engaged with the private sector, civil society and individual citizens. Having visited more than 50 embassies and interviewed about 600 American diplomats, author Nicholas Kralev reveals a Foreign Service whose diversity and professional versatility have shattered old perceptions and redefined modern diplomacy. But he also depicts a service not fully equipped to address the complex challenges of the 21st century.
RSVP for this event to events@afsa.org.
5. Book Discussion: Powerful Peace: A Navy SEAL’s Lessons on Peace from a Lifetime at War, Monday October 22, 6:00 PM – 7:00 PM, CSIS
Venue: CSIS, 1800 K Street NW, Washington DC, 20006, B1 A/B Conference Room
Speakers: J. Robert DuBois, Rick “Ozzie” Nelson
“Nowhere is the cost of failure higher than in the life-and-death struggle of armed conflict. Now J. Robert Dubois harnesses that real-world sense of wartime urgency to guide our search for solutions to challenging problems. He takes on a crucial and unprecedented mission for a retired Navy SEAL: the relentless pursuit of interpersonal and international peacekeeping as an imperative to global security. A treatise for policy makers and warriors, mediators and educators, Powerful Peace is also a compelling and practical guide to problem solving for every engaged citizen.” Please join the CSIS Homeland Security and Counterterrorism Program on the evening of October 22 for a discussion with J. Robert DuBois regarding his new book, Powerful Peace, as well as his insights into the importance of peacemaking at the global and personal level.
Register for this event here.
6. Decision 2012: The Foreign Policy Debate, Monday October 22, 8:00 PM – 11:00 PM, George Washington School of Media and Public Affairs
Venue: GW School of Media and Public Affairs, 805 21st Street NW, Washington DC, 20052, Jack Morton Auditorium
Speakers: Doug Wilson, Richard Engel, Anne Gearan, Susan Glasser, Noah Shachtman
Join us at the Jack Morton Auditorium for pre-debate insight from four of America’s most respected and experienced national security correspondents — and immediately following, for the final presidential debate.
7:30 PM – 8:00 PM Reception
8:00 PM – 9:00 PM Panel Discussion
9:00 PM – 10:30 PM Debate Watch
10:30 PM – 11:00 PM Analysis and Closing Remarks
Register for this event here.
7. Connecting to Diaspora Communities Through Web Portals: Opportunities and Limitations, Tuesday October 23, 9:00 AM – 10:00 PM, QED Group
Venue: QED Group, LLC, 1250 Eye Street NW, Washington, DC 20005, Suite 1100
Speakers: Eric Guichard, Molly Mattessich
Diaspora communities have played a longtime role in the development of their countries of origin in areas as diverse as business development, financial investments, philanthropy, volunteerism, advocacy, etc.
For instance, the amount of money diaspora communities send to their home countries as remittance far exceed that of official development aid. In 2010, the globally recorded amount in remittance flows to developing countries was $325 billion and the World Bank estimates that amount to reach an estimated $404 billion a year by 2013. Regionally, African diaspora communities contribute an estimated $40 billion in remittances annually to the continent. Similarly, philanthropy from the US to developing countries was estimated at $39 billion in 2010 by the Index of Global Philanthropy and Remittances.
These staggering amounts have triggered a change in recent years among the formal donor community as diaspora communities are increasingly recognized as a credible and meaningful contributor to development. Given the significant contribution of diaspora communities, a key issue facing the donor community has become how to engage and partner effectively with diasporas? In this area of technological hyper-development, web portals have become omnipresent in any development venture and diaspora-driven development is not different. This seminar will present two such portals—Homestrings, a private investment platform, and Africa Rural Connect , an online global philanthropic network—and examine their effectiveness in engaging diasporas in development.
Register for this event here.
8. Applying Peace Economics in Dangerous Places, Tuesday October 23, 10:00 AM – 12:30 PM, USIP
Venue: USIP, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20037
Speakers: Jurgen Brauer, J. Paul Dunne, Clare Lockhart, Todd Moss, Raymond Gilpin
Creating a sound economic policy and a stable macroeconomic framework is essential to societies recovering from violent conflict, yet few practitioners have the background needed to apply economic concepts effectively. USIP’s new publication titled “Peace Economics: A Macroeconomic Primer for Violence-Afflicted States” provides a concise but broad overview of practical ways that sound macroeconomic fundamentals could be used to build stability in states that are affected by violent conflict.
The discussion extends beyond economic principles into the wider realm of social reconstitution, social contract, and social capital. Co-authors, Jurgen Brauer and J. Paul Dunne, examine recent case studies and illustrate the applicability of concepts presented in the book.
Register for this event here.
9. National Security Challenges from an Israeli Perspective, Tuesday October 23, 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM, Heritage Foundation ****THIS EVENT HAS BEEN CANCELED.
Venue: Heritage Foundation, 214 Massachusetts Avenue NE, Washington, DC 20002, Lehrman Auditorium
Speakers: Yossi Baidatz, Steven P. Bucci
Israel, long America’s closest ally in the Middle East, faces growing national security challenges from Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah and various radical Islamist groups that have flourished during the so-called “Arab Spring.” The collapse of Egypt’s Mubarak government, Syria’s intensifying civil war and growing strains inside Jordan have added greater uncertainty to an already volatile region. Iran continues to make substantial progress in enriching uranium for a nuclear weapon, as well as expanding its arsenal of ballistic missiles, some of which can reach Israeli targets. Iran also has transferred increasingly sophisticated rockets to Hezbollah and Hamas, each of which has used them to bombard Israeli civilians.
Please join Major General Yossi Baidatz, Commandant of the Israeli National Defense College, as he offers his insights in assessing Israel’s security environment and the important role of US-Israeli security cooperation.
Register for this event here.
10. The Political and Economic Implications of the Palestinian Authority’s Fiscal Crisis, Tuesday October 23, 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Venue: Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, 1619 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036, Rome Building Auditorium
Speakers: Robert Danin, Khaled Elgindy, Oussama Kanaan, Hussein Ibish
The Middle East Institute’s George and Rhonda Salem Family Foundation and the SAIS Conflict Management Program are proud to host Robert Danin, Khaled Elgindy, and Oussama Kanaan for a discussion about the fiscal crisis facing the Palestine Authority and the political implications of the PA’s deteriorating economic situation. In mid-September, the IMF and the World Bank issued a report saying that the Palestinian financial crisis will worsen unless foreign funding increases and Israel eases restrictions on economic activity. Neither solution looks imminent and protests in response to the economic hardships have turned into an indictment of President Mahmoud Abbas’s policies, raising questions about the future of the PA’s leadership. Danin, Elgindy, and Kanaan will examine the economic and political fallout stemming from the latest crisis and explore the role of the international community in finding a way out.
Register for this event here.
11. The Rise of Extremism in Greece and Its Impact on Minorities, Tuesday October 23, 4:00 PM – 5:30 PM, United Macedonian Diaspora
Venue: United Macedonian Diaspora, 1510 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20005, Suite 900
Speakers: Archimandrite Nikodim Tsarknias, Sali Bollati, Stacy Burdett, Eugenia Natsoulidou, Sevin Elekdag
European Union member-state Greece is home to Macedonian and Turkish minorities, with sizeable Albanian, Roma and migrant populations and religious communities such as Catholics and Jews. Known as the cradle of democracy, Greece has seen a significant democratic deficit especially towards its minorities. Recently, the Chrysi Avgi (Golden Dawn), the Greek neo-Nazi political party, which denies the Holocaust ever occurred, has risen in popularity, given the deepening economic crisis in the country. The right wing extremist group has secured 18 seats – 9 percent of the total – in the Greek parliament against a backdrop of increased anti-Semitic and xenophobic rhetoric throughout the country.
Is the rise of extremism in Greece a new phenomenon or embedded within Greek society? What does this mean for the minority communities of Greece?
Greece chaired the OSCE in 2009, and now is vying for a seat on the UN Human Rights Council. In July, the EU appointed as its first Special Representative for Human Rights, the previous Greek Foreign Minister Stavros Lambrinidis.
RSVP for this event to tgzirishvili@umdiaspora.org.
12. Jordan in the Crosshairs, Tuesday October 23, 6:00 PM – 7:15 PM, Elliott School of International Affairs
Venue: Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street NW, Washington, DC 20052, Lindner Family Commons, Room 602
Speakers: Marwan Al-Muashar, Curtis Ryan, Edward Skip Gnehm
Although the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan has so far weathered the region’s political upheaval, rising domestic unrest combined with regional pressure stemming from the Syrian conflict pose serious challenges to Jordan’s stability. The panelists will discuss the internal and external pressures shaping Jordan’s contentious political process, assessing the prospects of political reform and potential for greater unrest.
Register for this event here.
13. Fortress Israel: The Inside Story of the Military Elite Who Run the Country – and Why They Can’t Make Peace, Wednesday October 24, 4:00 PM – 5:30 PM, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Venue: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036
Speaker: Patrick Tyler
Former Washington Post and New York Times reporter Patrick Tyler speaks about his new book “Fortress Israel: The Inside Story of the Military Elite Who Run the Country–and Why They Can’t Make Peace.”
RSVP for this event to info@fmep.org.
14. Foreign Policy and the Presidential Election: A Post-Debate Analysis, Wednesday October 25, 4:30 PM – 5:30 PM, Brookings Institution
Venue: Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036, Falk Auditorium
Speakers: Martin Indyk, Susan Glasser, Robert Kagan, Kenneth G. Lieberthal, Suzanne Maloney, Bruce Riedel
With just two weeks to go before the U.S. election, President Barack Obama and Governor Mitt Romney will engage in their final presidential debate on Monday, October 22. In this next debate, the candidates will focus on a wide range of foreign policy issues, including the U.S. mission in Afghanistan, U.S. counterterrorism efforts, the Iran crisis, and U.S.-China relations. Given the tone of the Obama-Romney town hall meeting and the critical U.S. and global security issues on the agenda, the foreign policy debate promises to be equally intense.
On October 24, Foreign Policy at Brookings, in association with Foreign Policy magazine, will host a discussion on the issues raised during the next presidential debate. Susan Glasser, editor-in-chief of Foreign Policy magazine, will moderate the panel, which will include Brookings Senior Fellows Robert Kagan, Suzanne Maloney, Kenneth Lieberthal and Bruce Riedel. Brookings Vice President Martin Indyk will offer opening remarks.
After the program, the panelists will take audience questions.
Please register for this event here.
15. Human Rights Perspectives on American Elections: Free or Fair?, Thursday October 25, 12:00 PM – 1:20 PM, AU Washington College of Law
Venue: AU Washington College of Law, 4801 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20016, WCL Room 602
Speakers: Patrick Merloe, Marcia Johnson-Blanco, Hadar Harris
What does it mean to have ‘free and fair elections,’ and will the 2012 elections in the United States be free and fair? The Center for Human Rights & Humanitarian Law and the Program on Law & Government will host a discussion on international standards of free and fair elections as viewed from a human rights perspective, and examine how these standards apply to election policy in the United States. Specific topics will include human rights-related issues emerging in domestic and international elections, such as transparency, fairness of process, the right to political opinion, and the right to participate in government. Speakers will also address the current obstacles to full enfranchisement in the upcoming U.S. elections, such as voter identification laws and restrictions on early and absentee ballots. This event will feature Patrick Merloe, Senior Associate and Director of Electoral Programs of the National Democratic Institute, and Marcia Johnson- Blanco, Co-Director of the Voting Rights Project of the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law. The discussion will be moderated by Hadar Harris, Executive Director of the Center for Human Rights & Humanitarian Law.
RSVP for this event to humlaw@wcl.american.edu.
16. Women After the Arab Awakening: Making Change, Thursday October 25, 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM, Brookings Institution
Venue: Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036, Saul Room/Zilkha Lounge
Speakers: Tamara Cofman Wittes, Lina Ahmed, Marianne Ibrahim, Randa Naffa, Souad Slaoui
Women played an integral role in the Arab uprisings, and the continued empowerment of women will be critical to the emergence of democracy in the region. Gender rights and women’s equality are among the most consequential and controversial issues facing newly elected governments across the Arab world. Some fear that the election of Islamist parties will turn back the clock on women’s rights, but others see more open politics as a new opportunity for efforts to achieve equality in the Arab world. How has the Arab awakening affected the women of the region? How are activists and politicians seeking progress for women in this uncertain and evolving landscape?
On October 25, the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings, with Vital Voices Global Partnership and the Project on Middle East Democracy, will host activists from Morocco, Egypt, Lebanon and Jordan who are advocating for women’s rights in a variety of ways: combating child marriage, working to repeal gender-discriminatory laws, promoting gender equality in the new Egyptian constitution, and protecting the rights of women workers. Brookings Senior Fellow Tamara Cofman Wittes, director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, will provide introductory remarks and moderate the discussion.
After the program, the panelists will take audience questions.
Register for this event here.
17. Playing with Fire: Pakistan at War with Itself, Thursday October 25, 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM, Elliott School of International Affairs
Venue: Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street NW, Washington, DC 20052, Suite 605
Speaker: Pamela Constable
Pamela Constable, Foreign Correspondent and Former Deputy Foreign Editor, The Washington Post
RSVP for this event to security@gwu.edu.
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Why riot?
You don’t have to be a foreign affairs expert to see that there are political reasons for the Innocence of Muslims-inspired protests around the Muslim world in what has been termed “the video incident.” America’s recent wars in predominantly Muslim countries have heightened tensions. U.S. support for Israel also contributes.
But this can’t be just about politics. The video offended Muslim sentiments. If these protests were really about politics, why were they not more widespread and why did they not take on a more explicitly political guise?
Americans find it difficult to understand the religious justification for these protests. Either they are reduced to cultural relativism (“things are different in the Muslim world”) 0r they wonder if Muslims are so weak in their faith that any offense to their prophet pushes them to mass violence. Neither produces interesting answers.
What Westerners fail to appreciate is the cultural milieu in which Islam originated and propagated. Islam emerged from a pre-existing oral tradition of poetry. The influence is apparent in the Holy Qur’an, which often reads like poetry:
Say, “I seek refuge in the Lord of mankind,
The Sovereign of mankind,
The God of mankind,
From the evil of the retreating whisperer –
Who whispers [evil] into the breasts of mankind –
From among the jinn [spirits] and mankind.” (Surat an-Nas 114)
Recitation of the Qur’an is art, and those with the Qur’an memorized are respected. In early Islam, that was the only way to experience the Qur’an. It is believed Muhammad was illiterate, so when he received the Qur’an from the Angel Gabriel he memorized it and taught it to his followers. The sunnah, or the large body that encompasses the words and actions of the Prophet and some of his close followers, was also initially memorized and passed along orally.
Memorization and oral transmission were the privileged modes of gaining and disseminating knowledge. How was it to be determined whose oral transmission was legitimate? What would be done if two people remembered something differently? In the case of the sunnah an incredibly complex system developed for evaluating the legitimacy of different ahadith (pieces of the sunnah, particular stories about things the Prophet said or did). Was it possible that a certain transmitter could have had contact with another in order to pass along a hadith? Did both transmitters live in the same era and were they known to have traveled in the same region?
The issue of legitimacy also brought into question each transmitter’s character. Ignoring other variables, one might trust what one transmitter said the Prophet did over another if the first had a reputation for honesty while the second was known to lie. The legitimacy of the information a transmitter passed along was intimately connected to the transmitter’s reputation: how honest he was, how often he prayed, whether his teachings were consistent. Character is vital to legitimacy in the Islamic tradition.
The connection between the legitimacy of the content and the character of the content’s originator or transmitter implies that criticism of the latter calls the former into question. If a transmitter is not of high moral standing, there are implications for whether the ahadith he transmitted are considered legitimate. Insulting the Prophet, the original transmitter, calls into question his message, or all of Islam.
In the Shi’i tradition a religious leader’s character is very important, especially in a Muslim’s choice of Ayatollah. Because of the occultation of the last imam, Ayatollahs are selected to demonstrate how a Muslim should live her life until the last imam returns. The importance of an Ayatollah modeling good character is captured in the title given to a well-respected Ayatollah, marja-e-taqlid, which translates as “source of emulation.”
This is strange from the Judeo-Christian perspective, which privileges text. Jews are exigent about error-free copying of the Torah. Western culture worries about plagiarism. Improperly expropriating text undermines an author’s credibility and may call into question everything she has written. We have little need to worry about an author’s character to decide whether a text is valid or not.
It is therefore not surprising that the Judeo-Christian tradition includes insulting, teasing, or at least recognizing the faults of religious leaders without it negatively reflecting on their mission. In the Jewish tradition, many of the prophets are far from moral perfection, but their character flaws do not affect the sanctity of their purpose. Most Christians had a good laugh at the late-night TV jokes about Jesus’ possible wife. The ancient Greeks often mocked the gods.
There is of course no justification for the killings associated with the recent demonstrations. But the importance of transmitters in preserving the Islamic tradition provides some insight into the anger a number of Muslims are feeling around the world, an anger that so many in the West cannot begin to understand.
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George W. Bush’s playbook
I can do no better in summing up Mitt Romney’s foreign policy speech today than he does himself in the penultimate sentence:
The 21st century can and must be an American century. It began with terror, war, and economic calamity. It is our duty to steer it onto the path of freedom, peace, and prosperity.
Here’s the problem: the terror, war and economic calamity Romney refers to occurred not on Barack Obama’s watch, but on George W. Bush’s. And Governor Romney’s foreign policy prescriptions, like many of his domestic policy prescriptions, are drawn from George W. Bush’s playbook.
The few innovations in Romney’s speech at Virginia Military Institute today are hardly worth mentioning. He wants to see the Syrian revolutionaries get more arms, in particular anti-aircraft and anti-tank weapons, but he fails to say how he will prevent these from being used against us, except to say that those who receive them will have to share our values. That should fix everything in the arms bazaars of the Middle East.
He says he will support a two-state solution for peace between Palestine and Israel. Nice to see him return to the mainstream from the extremist wings of Israeli and American politics, which is where he was during the “47%” fund-raising dinner in Florida when he suggested we would kick the can down the road and maybe skip the two-state solution altogether. Trouble is, the people he pitched that line to are supporting his campaign with fat checks. He says there will be no daylight between America and Israel, which is code for saying that the Jewish settlements will continue to expand, since that is what Netanyahu’s Israel wants. I fail to understand an American presidential candidate who outsources U.S. policy on the Palestinians to Israel.
In Libya he’ll track down the killers of our personnel, which is exactly what Obama promises to do. I’d just be curious how those 15 Navy ships he plans to build each year will help in the effort.
He pledges to condition aid to Egypt but makes the conditions both vague and easy to meet: build democratic institutions and maintain the peace treaty with Israel. There are lots of problems with President Morsy’s Egypt, but you won’t be able to hang him for either of those offenses, yet.
In Afghanistan, he calls the withdrawal the president has pledged a retreat but makes it clear he is not proposing anything very different.
Then there is this on foreign assistance:
I will make further reforms to our foreign assistance to create incentives for good governance, free enterprise, and greater trade, in the Middle East and beyond. I will organize all assistance efforts in the greater Middle East under one official with responsibility and accountability to prioritize efforts and produce results. I will rally our friends and allies to match our generosity with theirs.
The trouble here is that the Ryan budget guts the foreign affairs budget, including foreign assistance. There won’t be any American generosity to be matched with theirs if Romney is elected. This is where Romney departs definitively from Obama and shows his reliance on George W.’s playbook.
I hasten to add that I’d be all for organizing our assistance efforts in the greater Middle East under one official. That would be a good idea.
One last issue: with all this overload of American values as the basis for our foreign policy, I’m curious what Romney plans to do about Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Jordan, Morocco and other less than fully democratic friends in the region? They get no mention in this speech, but of course they really can’t be mentioned in a speech that gives unequivocal backing to both our friends and our values. What would Romney do when there is a choice between the two? Keep silent would be a good guess.
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How do you say fast and furious in Arabic?
I’m surprised the American-imposed limits on arms transfers to the Syrian opposition from Qatar and Saudi Arabia are front page news today in the New York Times. It has been common knowledge for some time that the United States does not want shoulder-fired anti-aircraft weapons (man-portable air defense systems, or MANPADS) transferred to Syrian rebels. Anti-tank weapons are likewise blocked.
I thought it obvious why. But apparently not, so let’s review the merits of the case. These weapons pose a serious threat to commercial aircraft and other civilian targets. Washington does not want to transfer weapons that fall into extremist hands and are then used against Americans. “Fast and furious” comes to mind–the scandal surrounding a transfer of guns to Mexican drug cartels in order to track them that ended in the murder of American border patrol agent. So, too, does the Washington-sponsored mujahideen effort against the Soviets in Afghanistan, which armed radical Islamist forces that are now fighting against the Americans.
Rumint has it that there are hundreds of thousands of MANPADs already in circulation. If so, it is hard to understand how none have made it into Syria. I am told that American ones come with a difficult-to-replace 90-day battery. If effective, that would make them relatively unattractive. I don’t know whether Russian, Chinese, Iranian, British and other systems have similar immobilizing measures. There have been a number of incidents in which MANPADS have been used against civilian aircraft: in Rhodesia, Georgia, Sri Lanka, Kenya and Iraq. Some attempts were successful, others not. It does not take a lot of imagination to picture why officials in Washington would worry about MANPADS getting into the wrong hands.
Anti-tank weapons come in a bewildering variety, wire-guided and not. Some seem to have made their way to Syria, where the rebels have often destroyed the regime’s tanks. I have a hard time understanding why Washington would worry much about the transfer of these weapons, especially if they are already in theater. It would of course be wiser to transfer them to more reliable people, but war doesn’t allow a lot of fine distinctions to be made.
A birdie tells me that the Syrian opposition is getting all the AK-47s and other “light” weapons it needs. It is not doing them a whole lot of good. The Syrian army is using artillery, tanks, snipers and the occasional aircraft to project force far beyond the range the rebels can target effectively when they shoot back.
The real question for Washington at this point is whether to allow the Syrian opposition to get MANPADS, which it would use to enforce a de facto no-fly zone over the areas that it controls. This could level the playing field and allow the opposition to hold on to liberated areas. I haven’t been enthusiastic about the arming of the opposition, not the least because it strengthens extreme Islamist and other anti-democratic forces that should not inherit Syria from the Asad regime. But with the civic opposition yesterday demonstrating in favor of arming Free Syrian Army, it is hard to oppose a shift in Washington’s stance that would allow MANPADS with appropriate self-limiting technology and anti-tank weapons to reach it.
U.S. government officials have been insisting that they draw the line at “lethal” assistance, presumably to bolster their so far unsuccessful efforts to turn the Russians and Chinese around on Syria and allow a UN Security Council resolution with teeth to pass. But with Iran, Hizbollah and the Russians pouring arms and men into Asad’s efforts to crush the rebellion and Syria repeatedly firing artillery into the territory of NATO-member Turkey, isn’t it time to consider leveling the playing field, as the diplomats say?
If that shift takes place, we have to recognize that there is a real possibility that the weapons will some day be used us. How do you say “fast and furious” in Arabic?
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