Tag: Taiwan
What happens if Trump wins?
In many parts of the world, the answer is obvious. Trump has said he would strike a deal with Putin on Ukraine. That means surrender of at least Ukrainian territory Russia already controls. In the Middle East, Trump backs Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu 100%. That means Palestinians will be restricted to even smaller areas of the West Bank and Gaza. The prospects for a Palestinian state will be reduced to nil. In Asia, Trump has encouraged Japan and South Korea to get their own nuclear weapons. That, he hopes, will enable US withdrawal. Taiwan will be surrendered, sooner or later, to China.
But what about the Balkans? The region won’t be a priority for either a President Trump or a President Harris. She has said nothing so far as I know about the Balkans. But she is a vigorous rule of law defender of human rights. Trump has also said little about the Balkans, but we know what he did last time. We should expect more of the same.
President Harris: human rights and rule of law
Balkan policy under Harris will hopefully be consistent with her commitment to human rights and rule of law.
That implies keeping NATO and EU membership open, protecting individual rights, and fighting corruption. Consistency would require that American diplomacy return to opposing ethnic nationalism and promoting liberal democracy. Appeasement of President Vucic should decline, as should tolerance for the current Bosnia HiRep. He has backed ethnonationalists and opposed the pending European Court of Human Rights decision that undermines their hold on Bosnia. Interest in extending Kosovo’s sovereignty and countering corruption in Serbia and Albania should increase.
President Trump: partition and profits
In Trump’s first term, his Balkan envoy Ric Grenell favored partition of Kosovo. I am not among those who believe that he can become Secretary of State. But he could take Jim O’Brien’s place as Assistant Secretary for Europe. As soon as the partition option is opened again, it will spread. First to southern Serbia but then to Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, and southwestern Serbia (Sandjak). Populations will start moving. Violence will result.
Trump/Grenell will also favor the Balkan fortunes of son-in-law Jared Kushner. That means more appeasement of Serbia’s President Vucic and Albania’s Prime Minister Rama. Both of them have sought to line Trump’s pockets with real estate deals. No doubt they stand to gain as well, politically if not financially.
Sooner rather than later
I don’t think any of this will respect the diplomatic clock. If Trump wins, the changes will start quickly. Europeans will assume NATO is dead. Russia will too. In the Balkans, Vucic and Republika Srpska President Dodik will try to produce facts on the ground. They’ll leave the conference rooms for later. With NATO immobilized, Serbia could try to grab northern Kosovo and the RS can secede from Bosnia. This could all happen during the lame duck presidency, before the January 20 inauguration, or very soon thereafter.
The Biden Administration needs to prevent disaster on its own watch, if Trump is elected. The State and Defense Departments should be preparing now and forewarning the Balkanites, even before the election. EUFOR and KFOR should be prepared to counter partition moves in Kosovo and Bosnia. Plans for reinforcement should be ready. Even now, it would be a good idea to move more troops to Brcko, in northeastern Bosnia. Without Brcko, RS secession is improbable.
Later rather than sooner
If Harris wins, all of the above could still happen. But later rather than sooner, if she fails to correct the mistakes of the Biden Administration. A thorough review of Balkans policy is long overdue. It won’t be hard to discern why Biden couldn’t get anything more than ammunition for Ukraine from appeasing Serbia. Vucic is not embracing the West and won’t. Russia has infested his security services. His own ambition for a Serbian world is analogous to Putin’s Russian world.
The harder part will be correcting course. The EU and US need to lower ambitions for the Dialogue between Pristina and Belgrade. They need to raise the pressure on Belgrade and counter Russia’s malign influence there and in Montenegro. And Washington and Brussels need to strengthen the sovereignty and territorial integrity of both Bosnia and Kosovo.
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A true conservative would vote Harris
I don’t have a lot of Republican friends. That’s true. But for those Republicans I know identity is the reason for their attachment to that party. One was born into a family in Arizona in which no one had ever voted for a Democrat. Another, an otherwise first-rate political analyst, simply believes what Republicans say and doubts what Democrats say. He puts the burden of proof on his opponents.
Neither of these colleagues has ever before supported across-the-board tariffs or deportation of immigrants. They both pride themselves on not being racists. Yet they will vote for a candidate who wants to impose broad tariffs and deport millions. Trump is also a confirmed white supremacist and has promised to restrict minorities from moving to the suburbs. Republican identity trumps [pun intended] their policy preferences. It shifts the burden of proof, so here are some proofs.
The domestic issues
To be fair, traditional Republicans are in a difficult spot. The Republican party they knew and loved favored lower taxes and high defense expenditures. It has evaporated. Trump’s Republican party favors lower taxes only for the truly wealthy and abandonment of defense obligations.
Presidents Reagan and George W. Bush welcomed immigrants. Trump blames them for crimes they haven’t committed, as he did for the Central Park five. He wanted them executed, which is what he wants for immigrants who kill “Americans.” The five, all Black, were innocent.
Traditional Republicans do have reason to dislike Kamala Harris’ policy proposals. They fear extra spending for her housing, healthcare, education, and other “social” programs would explode the deficit. But they should be aware that the data is clear. Trump did that, even before the COVID-19 epidemic. Her spending proposals will have to pass in Congress. Trump’s promise of tariffs he can levy without Congressional approval
There is a decades-long history of lower percentage debt increases under Democratic than Republican presidents:
This is at least in part due to Republican control of one or both Houses of Congress. That’s a good reason for a Republican debt hawk to vote for some down-ballot Republicans. But it is not a good reason to vote for Trump.
Foreign policy
On foreign policy, the situation is even clearer. Both Trump and Harris are hawkish on China and protective of Israel. But Trump reached a trade agreement with China that Beijing didn’t implement. He did nothing to respond. The trade agreement also cost the US budget a great deal due to related agricultural subsidies. They continue. Trump would back Israel to the hilt. Harris wants to rein it in, provide humanitarian assistance to Palestinians, and prevent a wider war.
Trump has threatened to abandon allies in Europe and to end support for Ukraine. Harris backs the NATO allies and Kyiv. Most NATO members are now fulfilling their 2024 NATO commitment to spend 2% of GNP on defense. The big jumps came under Biden, after the Russian expansion of the Ukraine invasion. They did not come under Trump. Allied solidarity in supplying Ukraine has helped to counter Russia’s expansionist impulse and reduce the threat to other “frontline” states.
Putin’s Russia is an expansionist, imperial power trying to correct what it regards as history’s mistakes. If Moscow wins in Ukraine, it will try again in Moldova and eventually Poland and other former Soviet satellites. It is not exaggerating to say Ukrainians are dying to prevent Americans and Europeans from fighting.
Trump has encouraged South Korea and Japan to think about getting their own nuclear weapons. That he thinks would reduce US commitments in Asia. It is a truly bad idea, as it would leave Asian security at risk of a nuclear confrontation. The US would not control the outcome.
Trump has signaled he would not help defend Taiwan. China will take advantage of that signal. Biden’s expressed willingness to support Taiwan has arguably forestalled a Chinese effort to take it over.
If you are a true Republican, vote Harris
Half of Trump’s former cabinet secretaries are not supporting his re-election bid. Nor is his Vice President, about whose safety during the January 6 riot Trump was unconcerned. Former Vice President Cheney, a staunch conservative, and his also conservative daughter Liz are voting for Harris. So too is Mark Milley, Trump’s Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, along with hundreds of other retired generals. Milley regards Trump as “fascist to the core.”
Preventing Trump from doing what he has pledged to do should outweigh any remaining identity issues. A true Republican would vote Harris.
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Advantage Harris, but the set isn’t over
Those who imagined Kamala Harris lacked charisma and enough time to build the momentum required to run for President have already proven wrong, less than 48 hours after she became the candidate. The campaign has already taken in more than $100 million in smaller donations and even more in large ones. Tiktoks of the dancing Vice President are all over the web. The Democratic Party has united in backing her. She can win.
Republicans are having trouble finding more than her boisterous laugh to criticize. To be sure, Donald Trump is calling her a socialist and extremist. That isn’t finding much traction when applied to a career prosecutor. The contrast with his 34 felony convictions, giant civil judgments against him, and his criminal indictments is dramatic:
What Americans want
What a large slice of American wants is the Biden Administration without Biden. They want the health care provided by Obamacare. They want the access to abortion that Trump’s Supreme Court nominees took away. The pace of inflation is way down and continuing to decline while employment is holding up reasonable well. They like that, even if they complain about price levels. They don’t complain about Biden’s tax policies, which have increased taxes on the rich and reduced them on the middle class. America’s recovery from COVID has outpaced other major countries:
On foreign policy, Americans want support for Ukraine and Israel, while hoping for an early end to their wars. Support for NATO is strong. So too is support for Taiwan and other allies in the Pacific.
They would get none of that from Trump
Trump would disappoint Americans on all those fronts. He has doubted the value of US alliances in both Asia and Europe. He has even suggested that South Korea and Japan should get their own nuclear weapons, rather than sit under the US umbrella. Taiwan would have to defend itself from China.
Trump has repeatedly vowed to end Obamacare, vaunted his Supreme Court nominees, and presided over a confused and ineffective response to COVID-19. His minions have prepared plans to fire tens of thousands of competent civil servants. He intends to reduce taxes on the super rich and increase them on the middle class, via his 10% tariff.
Ad Harris
So Harris is having a good week. Trump is having such a bad one he is reportedly wondering whether he can dump JD Vance as vice presidential candidate. If you don’t get that right, are you qualified to be president?
Harris’ first big decision is likewise choosing a vice president. There is ample talent available. The question is who will help her with the most Electoral Votes. I don’t pretend to know, but I won’t be surprised if it is someone from North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin.
I’ve got friends who suggest it should be a Republican, even Mitt Romney or Liz Cheney. That would be unlikely to please the Democratic base. It’s an idea that will need to await the formation of a cabinet next year.
The long road to November
Sustaining momentum is difficult. Harris will need some future projects to talk about during he campaign. She may focus on the bipartisan immigration legislation that Trump blocked from passing in the House. She will surely push for a clearer path to citizenship for undocumented people, especially those brought to the US as children. Student loan forgiveness is another possibility, as is legislation on national rules for abortion and limits on presidential immunity.
The Democrats are fortunate that their convention is August 19-22, which gives Harris time not only to pick her vice president but also to try to ensure that the convention goes smoothly. I was in Chicago for the 1968 convention that went south. Demonstrations are to be expected. The police need to handle them well. Getting a prominent Republican or two to speak at the convention would be a good idea. Cheney or Kinzinger or fit there well, not because of policy positions. They know who Trump is and are willing to say it plainly.
There is no telling what may happen by fall. Biden and Harris will need to be in sync. She has already demonstrated that she is quick. Now she needs to demonstrate that she can manage a unifying convention, a big campaign, and Trump’s unrestrained attacks.
PS: Here is they guy who wasn’t sharp enough to be president:
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Stevenson’s army, February 16
– CBO says interest on the debt will cost more than defense this year.
– CBO also says immigration will add $7 trillion to GDP
– RAND analyst says DOD needs reform, not more money
–WH briefing on Russian ASAT and Ukraine
– Vox summarizes US space capabilities
– US has new satellite system
– Politico says Sullivan worked with Van Hollen on military aid conditions
– NYT investigates how Iran evades sanctions and how Russia mitigated them
– Politico says nobody knows which political ads work
From Punchbowl: Ten House members (five from each party) have drafted a compromise Ukraine-Taiwan-Israel-border security bill. You can read the text here, and the summary here.
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My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, February 1
– Americans trust nurses the most, members of Congress the least.
– John Bolton doesn’t trust Donald Trump
– Ukraine can trust EU, given aid deal
– Shippers can’t trust freedom of the seas
– Retired 2 star says US learned wrong lessons from recent wars
– Paul Pillar says US is repeating mistakes about Iran
-Journalist interviews Houthis
– Reuters says US uses exercises to prepare for defense of Taiwan
-Politico has story about Sullivan China speech
– Axios lists likely Trump advisers on China
– HFAC considers changes in arms sales rules
—
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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These two look happy, don’t they?
That of course is EU envoy Miroslav Lajcak on the left and Serbian President Vucic on the right. Accompanying this photo, Lajcak wrote:
Arriving in Belgrade this morning, I met with @predsednikrs @avucic. In our discussion, we focused on the strategic outlook for 2024, took stock on the state of play in the Dialogue and spoke about the next steps in the normalisation of relations with Kosovo.
Despite Lajcak’s effort to portray the meeting in neutral terms, there are good reasons for the grim looks.
The tilt is definitively eastward
Vucic is increasingly alienated from the West the Europeans want him to embrace. Just in the last few months, he has
- Sponsored a terrorist attack inside Kosovo intended to spark a response that would allow him to move his military into his neighbor’s north.
- Mobilized the Serbian army for that purpose.
- Conducted a fraudulent election in Belgrade, importing thousands of voters from Bosnia and Herzegovina.
- Aligned Serbia increasingly with the strongmen not only of Russia and China but also Azerbaijan, Belarus, and Hungary.
- Increasingly supported the secessionist ambitions of Milorad Dodik, the strongman of the Serb-majority 49% of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
So far as I am aware, the only tidbits Vucic has offered the West are acceptance of Kosovo documents and license plates in Serbia and steps towards payment by Serbs in Kosovo of their electricity bills. I doubt however many Kosovo Albanians will risking their windshields to drive into Serbia with Kosovo plates. We’ll surely need to wait a while before the bills are paid.
What Lajcak should be saying
So what should Lajcak be saying to Vucic once the cameras are out of the room? @ivanastradner gives us part of the answer with this tweet about the UK specialy envoy for the Balkans:
Special envoy to the Western Balkans sent crystal clear messages: 1. Serbia should impose sanctions on Russia. 2. Serbia should investigate elections irregularities. 3. Republika Srpska cannot be an independent state.
telegram channels are so upset…
But that would not suffice. The Ukraine-related sanctions on Russia will have little impact. I would stop asking for them. Belgrade hardly needs to investigate the election irregularities. It needs to rerun the elections. The EU needs to make it clear that Brussels will suspend accession negotiations with Belgrade in response to any future mobilization of the Serbian Army against Kosovo. Belgrade should surrender the avowed ring leader of the September 24 attack to the Kosovo authorities for trial. Brussels require that Vucic publicly renounce the Russian-sponsored, irredentist “Serbian world” program that has endangered the sovereignty and territoriality of Bosnia, Montenegro, Kosovo, and Macedonia.
https://twitter.com/ivanastradner/status/1751450967504039968/photo/1
The Americans should be chiming in
Washington is in part responsible for the appeasement the EU has undertaken in respone to Belgrade’s defection. It needs to change its tune, in public as well as in private. In addition to pushing on the points above, the US should put its money where its mouth is. There should be no more World Bank money or other multilateral financial assistance for Serbia until it accepts in both word and deed the February and March agreements that both the EU and US claim are legally binding.
The Americans should also revivify their own relations with Pristina and try to bend the EU back into a friendlier relationship with Pristina. The “consequences” Brussels levied on Kosovo last year because of lack of progress in the dialogue with Belgrade were always unjustiably one-sided. Now they look ridiculous. The police the EU wanted withdrawn from Kosovo prevented a disastrous outcome last September 24 when they responded effectively and professionally to the terrorist attack Belgrade sponsored. The non-Serb mayors elected in polls Belgrade got the Serb majorities in the four northern municipalities of Kosovo to boycott have likewise behaved professionally while awaiting a new election.
Smiles all around?
The Balkans are a minor theater of conflict in today’s world. The wars in the Ukraine and the Middle East as well as the Chinese threat against Taiwan are far more important. But even minor instability in the Balkans could greatly complicate those other issues. Irredentism is a major factor in all of them. The Balkan region has a sad history of aggravating larger issues. The US and EU should aim to end any possibility of that happening again. Then maybe Vucic and Lajcak could smile not only at each other but also at Kosovo Prime Minister Kurti.
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