Tag: United States
Nuclear Iran – facts, goals and opportunity
Former IAEA Safeguards Inspector Dr. Pantelis Ikonomou writes:
In May 2018, then President Trump withdrew the US from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Today, Iran is much closer to possible acquisition of nuclear weapons than at that time.
Facts
The fourth round of nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran was recently completed.
Their continuation will convene soon. That is a promising development. The nuclear issue has fueled Middle East confrontations since May 2018.
Goals
Reportedly, Tehran would accept an agreement limiting its uranium enrichment and relevant material inventories. That would be in exchange for relief from economic sanctions. President Trump has also said he is ready for an agreement that would limit Tehran’s enrichment. In addition, he has threatened Iran with massive bombing if Iran does not accept his proposals.
Limiting enrichment could guarantee Iran does not acquire nuclear weapons. Trump did not, however, clarify whether he also aims at other goals. In the past, the US has sought to dismantle Iran’s nuclear capability, ballistic missile program, and strategic influence in the region.
Israel is the third protagonist in Middle East geopolitical theater. It remains irrevocably opposed to any agreement that does not irreversibly destroy Iran’s nuclear capability. The powerful Israel lobby in the US often asserts decisive influence on Washington. It advocates a maximalist policy of unlimited pressure against Tehran.
The opportunity
There are reliable reports of Tehran making a remarkable proposal. Namely, the setting up of a regional nuclear enrichment consortium with Saudi Arabia and UAE, including US investment. This would be an alternative to shutting down its uranium enrichment.
Such multinational cooperation could be realized within the framework of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). It would be the equivalent of the URENCO (Uranium Enrichment Company) plant, which the IAEA monitors. URENCO is a British-German-Dutch uranium enrichment and nuclear fuel consortium that operates facilities in Germany and Netherlands. URENCO uses centrifuge technology, as do the enrichment facilities in Iran.
Such a project would provide the participating States – Saudi Arabia, UAE, and eventually others in the region – with additional confidence in their ability to obtain nuclear fuel for peaceful nuclear programs. At the same time, the scheme would assure the international community that the countries involved are using the sensitive nuclear material exclusively for peaceful purposes. The stringent monitoring and verification regime of the IAEA nuclear Safeguards inspectors would provide that assurance.
History remains a wise teacher
President Trump’s decision to kill in 2018 the 2015 Iran deal was an obvious failure.
Lack of knowledge and planning characterized Trump’s previous negotiations in the similar case of North Korea. He made a series of controversial statements, exchanged letters of admiration with President Kim, and threatened “fire and fury.” After three in-person meetings, Trump left their Hanoi Summit in 2019 unexpectedly without any statement. Since then, North Korea has continued developing its nuclear arsenal completely uncontrolled.
We should by now have learned the lessons.
International anxiety is justified. Will diplomacy or war result?
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Ukraine’s opportunities and threats
Based on proceedings at the Kyiv Security Forum, I’ve already tried to summarize Ukraine’s strengths and weaknesses. Here are some opportunities and threats.
Opportunities still abound
The West still has opportunities to improve Ukraine’s position vis-a-vis Russia, which responds only to actions (not just words):
- Strengthen sanctions, including secondary sanctions against firms doing business with Russia.
- Use Russian assets frozen in Europe and the US to fund Ukrainian defense.
- End European dependence on Russian natural gas, as pledged, by 2027.
- Integrate Ukrainian and European industry to produce more of what Ukraine needs.
- Raise defense spending sharply.
- Exploit any ceasefire to help Ukraine gain against Russia.
- Provide military assets to Ukraine on lend/lease terms.
- Improve Alliance interoperability.
- Deepen relations with Ukraine through the NATO/Ukraine Council.
- Encourage Russian brain drain to the West.
Carpe diem
Europeans, participants in the Forum thought, need to seize the day. Their political will has to match Ukrainian courage. Saturday’s visit of Polish Prime Minister Tusk, French President Macron, UK Prime Minister Starmer, and German Chancellor Merz started that process. The Europeans joined with Ukrainian President Zelensky in issuing an ultimatum for a 30-day ceasefire to begin Monday. So far, Russia has not accepted the proposition.
Having reappropriated the language of peace, the Europeans need now to reach out to the rest of the world. They also need to convince their own right-wing nationalists that Kyiv, not Moscow, merits support. Europe’s position should stay values-based but firm.
The Europeans also need to bring President Trump on board. The Congress is already restraining his worst pro-Putin impulses. The Euros should offer to acquire unique US capabilities and even to pay for deployment of US troops. They should also underline to Trump that peace through strength requires the US to do more for Ukraine. MAGA cannot make America great if it abandons Kyiv.
Russia’s future
The war with Ukraine has degraded the Russian military, compromised its intelligence, and devastated its economy and society. Even while advancing slowly on the ground, Moscow is losing the war. It has achieved none of its objectives. The West has not recognized its annexations or ruled out NATO membership and security guarantees for Ukraine.
While by no means guaranteed, defeat will open the possibility of a democratic transition in Russia. Putin will in any case eventually be gone. Moscow will then have to reconsider its relations with the West. We can hope the Russians will opt for improvement.
The threats are still real
Putin has gone too far to compromise now. His overall objectives have not changed. He wants to eliminate an independent Ukraine. A successful democracy on Russia’s borders is a threat to his regime. If Ukraine loses, Moldova and Lithuania will be next. Appeasement will encourage further aggression. Putin isn’t an idiot or crazy but rather a determined bully. He wants to impose his own rules to make the world safe for kleptocratic autocracy. The closing of Voice of America and Radio Free Europe are precisely what he wants.
NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense guarantee is the only thing that will stop him. But President Trump’s attitude toward NATO, including threats against Greenland, make Europeans doubt that he will do what it requires.
Even if the war ends, the fighting will go on through hybrid warfare. Russia and China will remain allied. Trump’s efforts to separate them will fail. The US should not promote a division of labor that assigns Europe to the Europeans and Asia to the Americans. That would divide the Alliance and limit Europe’s support in Asia.
Putin has effectively used nuclear blackmail to limit US aid to Ukraine. He has also promoted grievances in the West that threaten democratic governance and aim to make autocracy look more attractive. He will continue these successful efforts.
On balance
While the mists of war are still hiding the outcome, Ukraine is far from defeat. Even if Russia could occupy the whole country, which it can’t, many Ukrainians would resist. Putin’s best bet now is a Georgia-style political takeover of Ukraine by forces friendly to Moscow. But that gets less possible with every day of continued conflict. Killing people because of their identity strengthens that identity. Ukrainians are feeling more Ukrainian, not less, due to the war.
Russia is at the point of diminishing returns. Western appeasement would be a serious mistake. Ending Putin’s threat to Ukraine will prevent war elsewhere. That is a worthy cause.
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Failure and disgrace in 100 days
As they Trump Administration approaches its 100th day April 30, the failures are glaring.
Failures
The most obvious failures are in negotiations. Trump himself laid out the agenda. He wanted:
- The Canal back from Panama.
- To buy Greenland from Denmark.
- Canada as the 51st state.
- Gaza voluntarily emptied and redeveloped as a resort.
- The Ukraine war ended.
- A better nuclear deal with Iran.
- Trade deals that would “correct” bilateral imbalances.
None of this is happening. The first three items are fool’s errands hardly worth discussing. The four later ones are more serious propositions.
Even winning would be losing
The Gaza-a-Lago proposition was a green light for war crimes. The Israelis are trying to force Palestinians out of Gaza. They are failing so far, but they will no doubt persist. This is egregious even from a religious perspective: Biblical Jews did not live in Gaza. No religion, certainly not mine, can approve displacing two million people to please a real estate developer.
Trump is proposing to end the Ukraine war on terms favorable to Russia. Why is not clear, but Moscow would keep the territory it has taken, including Crimea. Kyiv would have to recognize Russia’s annexation of the peninsula. Ukraine would get no security guarantee from the US, which would gain privileged access to its minerals. This is a bad deal, one that that will not end the war, even if Kyiv and Moscow sign on. At best, it will pause the hostilities.
The better nuclear deal with Iran is a possibility. That’s because Trump is prepared to lift many if not all the sanctions. Biden refused to do that, because Washington imposed some of them for human rights violations. The Trump Administration doesn’t care about those. So a better nuclear deal for Trump means American endorsement of the Islamic Republic’s oppression. Not sure that is what Americans really want.
The Administration claims to be negotiating tariff deals with 90 countries. Unless they lower tariffs relative to the previous Administration, they will raise costs for American consumers. The most important of the negotiations is with China. That will end with higher tariffs both on Chinese imports to the US and on American exports to China. Yes, the US government will gain some revenue, though nowhere near as much as the Administration claims. And most of that revenue will come from Americans. Inflation will accelerate. Recession looms.
The disgraces
Trump supports Israeli war crimes in Gaza, Russian victory in Ukraine, endorsement of Islamic Republic human rights abuses, and trade deals that raise prices and slow growth for Americans. Add that to attacking American universities, arbitrary arrest, imprisonment, and deportation of immigrants, and canceling of vital scientific research.
The Administration is weakening the United States. That is the only thing at which it is succeeding in its disgraceful first 100 days.
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What US aid will look like after USAID
This is the best I’ve seen justifying USAID on the basis of its benefits to the United States. Certainly its food and health programs were also important to the rest of the world. I think it hard to argue that we were doing too much. It is inexcusable that we are now headed towards doing too little.
Shifting priorities
But that is not all that is going to happen. Trump will want to maintain some of the food programs, which DOGE claims to have restored already. Those all too obviously benefit farm communities that vote Republican.
The Administration will also restore some of the health programs, like bird flu surveillance, that directly benefit the US. But Trump will shift the funding for these programs away from the universities and nongovernmental organizations that used to do most of the work. He’ll want the money to flow to profit-making companies willing to kick back campaign contributions.
At the same time, vaccine programs and programs that support foreign agricultural production will suffer. So too will programs that help foreign governments in the health and agricultural sectors. Not to mention cuts to programs for democracy, rule of law, gender equity, or other liberal ideals. Foreign aid tends to reflect domestic values. That was the main point of Project 2025’s chapter on USAID. It did not propose elimination, just ideological purification in the right-wing direction.
The reform AID isn’t going to get
I am not a diehard defender of AID as it existed before Trump shredded it. It was founded as an economic development agency. It had failed to adapt to a world in which bilateral aid has relatively little economic impact. Multilateral agencies like the World Bank have most of the money, especially when it comes to infrastructure. Not to mention the gigantic international flows of private financing, including remittances.
I thought AID needed thorough reform. I’d have liked to see it refocused on setting up the institutions required to manage a modern market economy. Instead it continued to support relatively small economic development projects that rarely had much impact beyond the immediate beneficiaries.
But Trump isn’t going to want American aid going to health and agriculture ministries, justice sectors, and anti-corruption institutions and campaigns. Never mind education ministries. These are precisely the institutions he is destroying at home. He won’t support them abroad.
What’s next?
What we are headed to is foreign assistance as a feeding trough for Trump’s friends, including right-wing nongovernmental (NGO) religious organizations. The staff required to maintain accountability is already gone. The Administration will aim to defund the UN and mainstream NGOs with experience in health, food, and emergency relief in favor of profit-making organizations. As promised in Project 2025, it will try to withdraw from conflict-affected countries with governments unfriendly to the US, regardless of the humanitarian situation. And it will hire new staff loyal to its right-wing social values.
In short, US aid will be a cash cow for Trump donors, a mainstay of autocratic regimes friendly to the US, and a major funder of rightwing ideology. That will be worse than the unreformed USAID Trump inherited. Everything he touches turns to dross.
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The damage is vast and continuing
I’ve been at a workshop in Boston for these last few chaotic days. On the perhaps mistaken theory that President Trump will stick with the current tariffs, where do things stand?
The ugly
The losses on the stock market still amount to more than 10% of its value and trillions of dollars. If your timing was bad, you sold just before Trump suspended tariffs on most countries yesterday, causing a bump upwards. Odds are Trump, his family, and advisers did not make that mistake. Even if they didn’t use insider information to trade, they no doubt used it to desist from trading.
Trump’s on again, off again tariff decisions have done serious damage not only to the stock market. The bond market fall was a decisive factor in his “off” switch. That suggested strong inflation and rising interest rates, which would kill the Biden expansion Trump inherited. Stagflation is still a serious possibility.
With stocks and bonds collapsing, it would be surprising if Americans were to stay confident in the markets. The same is true for foreigners. The cash flow into the US that enables the trade deficit Trump wants to get rid of is in danger. Among the big buyers of US government bonds are the Chinese. Are they going to continue to buy, or even hold, those?
Markets rely on confidence. Trump has done everything possible since his inauguration to undermine it. Consumer confidence is declining sharply towards the relatively low level it hit during the COVID19 epidemic:
The bad
Trump’s tariffs are still there. The Economist estimates we’ve gone from an average effective tariff level of 3% to 25%. That is a giant increase that will hurt the American economy in many different ways. Because of our dependence on Chinese products, America is going to lose the trade war with China. Tariffs are still raising American costs, and Chinese retaliation is hurting US exports.
The automobile sector will be hard hit. American manufacturers, and foreign producers who manufacture in the US, are going to face sharply high costs. The capacity to ramp up domestic production of parts is limited. While the United Auto Workers union is applauding, few new jobs will result in the near term. Many more will be lost to the impending slowdown in the economy.
The good
If there is a silver lining, it is in national consciousness. Americans are becoming aware of their connections to the rest of the world. No one can ignore the damage that an incompetent and capricious president can do. Trade and alliances count. A Federal government that can think clearly and act sensibly is indispensable.
Some of this consciousness will help people understand the damage that cutting the Federal work force and budget will do. The so-called Department of Government Effectiveness has already demonstrated its vast incompetence. It is also hurting states and cities all over the country. The $2 trillion cut the House is asking for will cut deep into Medicaid and likely Medicare as well. Social Security is also at risk.
The simple fact is we were better off on January 19 than we are today. If Trump keeps this up, he will rank as a disastrous president.
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People are not pleased but it will get worse
Hard to picture a worse reception than President Trump got for his latest tariffs. American consumers are recognizing that they are inflationary, the stock market tanked, and the rest of the world gasped. That presumably includes the penguins on Heard Island, one of at least two places subject to Trump’s tariffs where no people live.
Not good for Americans
Trump’s minions are out trying to convince Americans the tariffs will not increase prices. But they will. Domestic producers will raise their prices, because they can once the competition raises its prices. The tariffs will act as a tax on consumption, reducing disposable income and slowing the economy.
The protection for domestic producers is badly targeted from a labor perspective. Americans don’t want to work in tee shirt factories that can compete with Vietnam’s. Nor do most Americans want to pick peaches. The US is a developed country that has moved up the value chain.
The re-shoring of manufacturing jobs to America will be slow. It takes years to build serious factories. What investor, seeing how capriciously Trump behaves, would lay out a few billion just because he has announced a 10% tariff? That could disappear tomorrow. Under Biden, the American economy had already created a record number of manufacturing jobs. Manufacturing in Trump’s first term lost jobs, partly due to the COVID-19 epidemic he mismanaged.
Eighty per cent of our jobs are in services. Retaliation will hit those hard and fast.
The economy
So inflation will be up, jobs will be down. The odds of a recession are way up. The firing of tens of thousands of government workers will hit communities all across the country, not just in Washington DC.
Wait until those who own stock have a hard look at their portfolios. They will cut back on spending. This “wealth” effect will be particularly pronounced for retired people, who are required to take amounts fixed on December 31 from their retirement accounts. Unless they anticipated the downturn in the market, they’ll have to raise those amounts by selling stock worth much less than it did a few months ago.
Meanwhile the Fed will have to do what it can to moderate prices. Its only real tool is to raise interest rates, which will pinch consumers even more. Trump will rail against the Fed, but it will have to hold the line.
The rest of the world
Trump is telling people the tariffs are not a negotiating ploy. He wants them to stay for years, which is the only way they can boost domestic production. This means America’s trading partners will be retaliating hard and fast, while turning to increased trade with each other. That will give them the competition they need to enhance productivity, while American industry grows fat and lazy behind high tariff walls.
The consequences will be felt in many ways. Innovation will lag. Trump has already done enormous damage to America’s research universities and government research institutions. His erratic enforcement of immigration laws is also actively discouraging foreigners from coming to the US. Young scientists and engineers will be going for advanced education to universities in Europe, Latin America, Australia, India, and China rather than the US. It’s not only the tourism industry that will suffer from their absence. Immigrant entrepreneurs are a far higher percentage of the total than immigrants are in the population.
Is it all purposeful?
It is tempting to suggest that all this is not an accident. Trump has repeatedly shown an inclination to weaken the United States, especially in Europe. Is that the real purpose?
But I’m afraid that would give him too much credit. The tariffs and immigration policy are just dumb. He is a profoundly uneducated mercantilist and racist. But I wouldn’t say the same about the attack on the universities and research institutions. That is an effort to rid the country of people who would dare to challenge him on factual and rational grounds. He wants an America swollen with racial prejudice and isolated from the world. Half the country supported that objective in last November’s election.
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