Tag: United States
A bird? A plane? No, it’s the QDDR!
Human and energy security get elevated. USAID (and within it the Office of Transition Initiatives) gains. Conflict prevention and response get more focus and a dedicated bureau within State (which might in future absorb OTI?) Ambassadors get more authority and responsibility. Planning gets a push.
AID and State both get promises of more staff (but what about those budget constraints?). Innovation, partnerships, outcomes, government officials,and regionalization are all in, contractors and outputs are out.
Bottom line: it’s prettier and easier to read than most government reports, but it is going to be a while before we understand what is really important, if anything, and what isn’t.
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The diploleaks are going to hurt
I’ve only had zippy peaks at wikileaks, via the New York Times, but that’s enough to know that this is going to hurt. The problem is not only what’s in the cables, which will blow the cover even on many redacted sources, but more what will not get reported because sources won’t trust American officials, and the officials won’t trust the system.
I spent 21 years as an American diplomat, talking with people who were trying to acquire the technology they needed to build nuclear weapons, to transfer missile technology to Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, and to buy electronics that were prohibited for export. Maybe they weren’t so smart to be talking with me at all, but they certainly would not have done it if they thought I could not be discreet.
Like it or not, diplomacy as practiced today depends on confidentiality. If you want to be good at it, you’ve got to be able to assure people that what they say will go back to your capital, and nowhere else. The news coverage will of course focus on juicy tidbits in the cables wikileaks puts out, but the greater harm lies in the future: the information diplomats fail to obtain because no one trusts them.
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Where, oh where, is the QDDR?
Announced with fanfare in July 2009 (The Department of State’s Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review) and rumored for many dates since, the Quadrennial Diplomacy and Development Review has now been hyped (http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/66799/hillary-rodham-clinton/leading-through-civilian-power) and applauded (http://www.modernizingforeignassistance.org/blog/2010/10/27/clinton-gives-preview-of-qddr/). But where is it? Best to reserve judgment until we can read the devilish details!
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What does the R-tsunami mean for peace?
Hard to tell of course, but money is going to be tight. Aaron David Miller has already argued on the merits that the President should “go small and stay home” (http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/11/01/go_small_and_stay_home). The Republican House is likely to make limited engagement abroad a financial necessity. The Tea Partiers aren’t likely to align with John McCain on the war in Afghanistan any more than with Hillary Clinton on enhancing American diplomacy and international development. Better duck: this is one more pendulum swinging to the (isolationist) right.
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