Ready or not, here comes independent South Sudan

Michael Abramowitz this morning in the Washington Post suggests that despite ample warning and extensive preparations South Sudan’s independence may not be an entirely peaceful process, especially in the six months following next Sunday’s referendum.  Abyei is a possible locus of problems:  there is still no agreement on holding the separate referendum there provided for in the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement.

Inspired by Michael’s piece, I spent a bit of time today trying to get up to date on Sudan.  Making Sense of Sudan checked out in October.  Sudan Peace Watch is still on vacation, and the much ballyhooed Satellite Sentinel Project seems to be not much more active, despite George Clooney.  The UN Mission in Sudan is only marginally more up to date. The Sudan Times is lacking on-the-ground perspectives.  Even the usually anticipatory Economist has not seen fit to look forward to the referendum and the problems that may ensue.

Of course we can hope that this lack of attention foreshadows a peaceful and uncomplicated process.  But hope is not a policy, much as it substitutes for one when political events follow so quickly on Christmas and New Year’s.  Expectations for quick and positive change in Southern Sudan are high, judging from the few interviews I’ve seen broadcast here (hats off to the PBS Newhour and Bob Loftis, who heads the State Department’s Reconstruction and Stabilization Office–PBS coverage of his listening tour was brief but informative).  Can these expectations be met, even in part?  Are preparations for the referendum adequate?  Will the referendum be orderly?  How are the talks going on post-referendum, pre-independence issues?

I would very much like to hear from those on the ground in Southern Sudan, internationals or Sudanese. Post comments here, or send to daniel@peacefare.net  Or publish elsewhere and let me know where to find the material.