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To the shores of Tripoli

Audio of the Atlantic Council’s session this morning on what Qaddafi’s demise means for Libya, NATO and the Arab Awakening is up.  Here are the speaking notes I used:

1. The immediate requirements are clear:  end the resistance, block revenge killing, stabilize Tripoli, get water and electricity flowing, deal with humanitarian requirements, begin an inclusive political process.
2.  But at the same time we need some focus on long-term goals.  Libyans need to tell us where they are going and begin to discuss what kind of help they will need to get there.  European interests most at risk—they should carry the burden.
3. A safe and secure environment free of large-scale violence is the first requirement.
4. But it is not enough:  Libyans will want rule of law.  This is no simple matter:  retraining and reorganization of the police, judiciary and corrections.  Start now, because it takes a long time.
5. TNC hodge podge is good.  Big tent better, with Islamists in, for writing the rules of the game.
6. Roadmap in the constitutional charter already calls for a new constitution within 6 months and elections within 12.  This may be overly fast, but if so they will postpone.   Municipal elections first.  Democratic culture will not develop this quickly—second elections are the real test.
7. There has been lots of focus on getting the Libyans the financial resources they need, less on the mechanisms of transparency and accountability that will be necessary to avoid new problems.
8. Oil and gas will not flow until companies have reassurance, which Libyans are trying to provide.  But citizens also need to know oil revenue will go transparently and accountably to everyone.   Too much money can be more harmful than too little.
9. The immediate social needs are acute:  to provide food, water, shelter and health care to the most vulnerable, especially displaced people.
10. But in the long-term social needs are much tougher:  documentation and accountability of the past regime for its crimes, and national reconciliation.  Strong civil society.
11. These longer term goals—a united, democratic Libya under the rule of law with resources used for the benefit of all its citizens in a way that is inclusive, accountable and transparent—need to be laid out, preferably in a UNSC resolution follow on to 1973, which is OBE.
12. This kind of Libya will be a model for the region and vindicate—though perhaps not justify—the NATO intervention.