Tune in to state TV
With all the brouhaha this morning about Arab Gulf states agreeing to pay the Free Syria Army, the real news is lost: Syrians in Damascus are continuing to demonstrate nonviolently. This video is from March 30:
Ameer @7__r (“a Syrian guy living in Damascus”) tweets this morning:
Large numbers of Shabiha and security forces arrived to Rukn al-Deen neighborhood of #Damascus to suppress the anti-regime sit-in. #Syria
Nonviolent protests of this sort continue every day in Syria, demonstrating not only the courage of the participants but also the illegitimacy of the regime.
The participants have every right to defend themselves. But if they do so aggressively the resulting violence will discourage others from joining them. It is only by mobilizing many thousands of people, including defectors from the armed forces, that the opposition in Syria will win. If the payments to the Free Syria Army (FSA) get its armed youth to stand by and protect the demonstrators, rather than attacking the Syrian security forces, I suppose they might contribute something. But if the FSA continues to go on the offensive, picking off a soldier or two and maybe even a tank, it will thoroughly discourage not only defections but also the kind of mass participation in the protests that leads to success.
The payments to the FSA will also affect the diplomatic situation. There the impact may be helpful. Moscow has already denounced the Friends of Syria meeting at which the Syrian National Council announced them. But if Moscow wants to avoid further moves in the direction of arming and training the opposition for a military effort against Bashar al Assad, it needs to reconsider its support for him now. The time to switch sides is before he starts to teeter, not afterwards.
There is also some chatter about American “communications” support for the opposition. I’d be amazed, and appalled, if the U.S. government is not already providing cell phones, satellite phones and internet links as well as other equipment.
What the Syrian opposition really needs now from the United States is close coordination with intelligence capabilities, which presumably track the movements of the Syrian security forces. Bashar has had significant military success lately in retaking population centers, blocking the borders and chasing the revolutionaries around Robin Hood’s barn. They need to know where his forces are and where they are headed in order to avoid losing battles that should not happen.
I wish the SNC well, and giving it the money to pay the FSA will hopefully make it stronger and more united (even if I fear it may do the opposite). But there are far more important things to be done in Syria than trying to create an army while fighting a war.
Getting large numbers of coordinated, nonviolent demonstrations of opposition to the regime mounted in Damascus I would put first. These need not be sit ins or street demonstrations. It would work just as well if entire sections of the city shut down on a working day, with everyone staying home and tuning in to state television.
Brevity is the soul of wit, but mockery was what Shakespeare had in mind when he said it.
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