Talking Turkey

There were Turks in town this week.  Well-informed ones who spoke off the record at a meeting that included other luminaries.  Here are some of the conclusions from the discussion.

Zero problems with neighbors, Turkey’s avowed foreign policy based on realpolitik, blew away in the gusts of idealism associated with the Arab spring.  Turkey now has growing problems with neighbors, especially Syria and Iran but also Iraq.

Syria.  Turkey misread Bashar al Assad.  Ankara thought he would step aside, but that reflected a misunderstanding of the nature of the Ba’ath regime and an underestimation of the difficulty of getting Bashar out.  In fact, Turkey generally lacks people who understand the Middle East well, and even experts who speak Arabic.

With the U.S. reluctant to intervene, Turkey is paralyzed, fearing that anything it does will worsen its own problems with the Kurds and increase refugee flows.  Prime Minister Erdogan’s voice is much stronger than his policies.  He lacks domestic political support for any further move against Bashar al Assad.  There is little popular sympathy for the Syrian revolution in Turkey.  Ankara says it supports an inclusive Syrian National Council (SNC), but in practice Turkish support goes mainly to the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, the dominant influence within the Syrian National Council, not to secularists.

Turkey wants the Syrian Kurds to support the revolution, but it isn’t willing to support their desire for decentralization.  Ankara pressured the SNC to deny the Kurds what they want, causing them to withdraw from the SNC entirely.

Iran.  Turkish relations with Iran have deteriorated sharply.  The traditional highly competitive but non-hostile relationship is turning ugly, despite rapidly growing bilateral trade.  The balance is sharply in Iran’s favor.  Iran will not back down on Syria.  Nor will Turkey.  Tensions are bound to escalate.  It is not clear where the breaking point lies, but there is no sign that it can be avoided.

Iraq.  Turkey has improved its relations with the Iraqi Kurds (particularly Kurdistan Regional Government President Barzani) in an effort to influence the Syrian Kurds.  But Ankara’s relationship with Baghdad has taken a turn for the worse.  Turkey is competing for influence in Iraq with Iran.

Bottom lines:  A few years ago, Ankara had hopes for zero problems with neighbors and was knocking on the door to the Europe.  If Assad survives, Turkey will now face increasing Middle East turmoil that it has little capacity to manage and no European prospect.  Ankara has bitten off more than it can chew in Syria and has little idea what to do about it.