Turkey’s role in Syria

The Middle East Institute held its fourth annual conference on Turkey Friday, as Prime Minister Erdogan sought to bring an end to demonstrations against him through a combination of negotiation and crackdown. An impressive group of speakers and regional experts tackled  today’s most pressing issues, including dynamics with Iran and Iraq, the future of Turkish-Kurdish relations, and the ongoing conflict in Syria. Of particular note was a morning panel titled “Crisis in Syria: Can Turkey Rise to the Challenge?”

Prior to the Arab Spring, Turkey favored a “no problems with neighbors policy.” Seeking to avoid costly military entanglements and rivalries, Turkey embraced economic partnerships and pursued mutual interests with regional partners in order to strengthen its geopolitical position. The current protest movement notwithstanding, Turkey is perceived as a model worth emulating that balances democratic institutions with the role of Islam.  Its model has been favored by both the West and moderate forces in the greater Middle East.

The Arab uprisings were “earthquakes” in the region and required a policy reassessment, Turkish parliament member and foreign policy committe chair Volkan Bozkir said.  Ankara began siding with opposition forces.  Refusing to be on the wrong side of history, Turkey was one of the first countries to demand Bashar al Assad’s removal from power in Syria. Turkey is now home to the headquarters of the Syrian opposition, as well as to hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees who have fled to Turkey.

The State Department’s Anne Richards elaborated the extensive humanitarian assistance that has been provided to Syrians, especially in and through Turkey.

Steve Heydemann, a Middle East adviser at the United States Institute of Peace, commended Turkey for these humanitarian and security-related efforts.  But he also echoed a growing concern that the increasingly  sectarian nature of this conflict will have devastating effects on both the Syrian people and the region.

Turkey has chosen its side. Assad must go. While there are hints that Turkey hopes to empower certain elements of the Syrian opposition that most resemble its concept of an Islamic democracy over others, it refuses to offer any legitimacy to the Assad regime.

What happens if Assad’s forces prevail? As unpalatable as that may be,  the ongoing conflict in Syria appears to be heading more in this direction. Assad remains defiant. Iran and Hezbollah have pledged support and their own fighters. Russia continues to send advanced armaments. While the United States and European Union deliberate best responses to the regime’s usage of chemical weapons, the Syrian opposition continues to lose ground.

Heydemann believes that even an Assad victory will reduce Syria’s brashness in the region, but Turkey would hardly be content with such an outcome.  With US arms on their way, Turkey needs to decide whether it will take on a more active role in arming and supporting the opposition. Ankara has a great deal to lose if things go  badly for the Syrian opposition, but it also needs to be cautious about fueling sectarianism or otherwise inflaming its own neighborhood.