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The elections of 2012 could prove to be even more consequential for Egypt than the turbulence of 2011. Various Egyptian factions have spent the last year trying to find their place in the new post-Mubarak order, and for the first time Egyptians have an opportunity to choose their president. It is a critical time to take the pulse of the population.

On May 21, the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings will unveil the results of a new University of Maryland poll. Conducted in the weeks leading up to Egypt’s historic presidential election, the poll gauges which candidate is most favored by the public, what issues are driving public preferences, what Egyptians want their leader and their country to look like, and what role they want religion to play in politics. In addition, the poll explores Egyptian public attitudes toward the Israeli-Egyptian peace treaty, the Iran nuclear issue, the Syria crisis, and the American presidential election. Brookings Nonresident Senior Fellow Shibley Telhami, principal investigator of the poll and the Anwar Sadat professor for Peace and Development at the University of Maryland, will present his latest research and key findings. Steven Cook, the Hasib J. Sabbagh Senior Fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations will provide commentary and offer his insights from his own research. Senior Fellow Daniel Byman, director of research for the Saban Center, will moderate the discussion.

After the program, panelists will take audience questions.

2.  The Dynamics of Iran’s Domestic Policy, WWC, 9-10:30 am May 22

Bernard Hourcade
Public Policy Scholar, Woodrow Wilson Center, and Senior Research Fellow (emeritus) CNRS

Bijan Khajehpour
Managing Partner, Atieh International

On the eve of the Baghdad meeting between Iran and the P5+1, two Iran experts will discuss the role of domestic dynamics—recent parliamentary elections, divisions among the ruling elite, economic difficulties—in Iran’s decision to return to the negotiating table on the nuclear issue.

In recent decades, civil wars have caused more deaths than any other form of organized mass violence. Between 2000 and 2010, an extraordinary 90 percent of civil wars were recurrences of earlier wars, according to the World Bank’s 2011 World Development Report.Why are civil conflicts so difficult to resolve, and why do they have such a high rate of recurrence? Does a return to violence or the success of peace depend on peacekeeping missions, or on whether a peace agreement ended the violence? What are the different roles for external and national actors in helping foster a society that can resolve its conflicts without returning to mass violence? These are some of the major challenges to contemporary peacebuilding.This event will bring together experts on civil war, the success of post-war peace agreements, and deeply divided societies to discuss the key elements that contribute to the success or failure of post-civil war peace, including:

• post-war political agreements, especially the effects of excluding or including parties to the conflict both in governance and in security institutions, such as the military and police;
• the role of international diplomats and mediators;
• economic arrangements in peace agreements;
• the role of peacekeeping missions.

An array of cases will be discussed.

Speakers

• Charles “Chuck” Call, Presenter
  Associate Professor, American University, and former Jennings Randolph Senior Fellow (2008-2009)
• Caroline Hartzell, Presenter
  Professor of Political Science, Gettysburg College and former Jennings Randolph Senior Fellow (2010-2011)
• Lise Howard, Presenter
  Assistant Professor of Government, Georgetown University, and current Jennings Randolph Senior Fellow
• Ambassador Robert Loftis
  former Acting Coordinator for Reconstruction and Stabilization (S/CRS) at U.S. Department of State, current USIP Interagency Professional in Residence;
• Pamela Aall, Moderator
  Provost, USIP’s Academy for International Conflict Management and Peacebuilding

4.  The Day After Baghdad: Assessing the Iran Nuclear Talks, National Iranian American Council, 2-3:30 pm May 24

A panel discussion featuring:

PJ Crowley Former Assistant Secretary of State for Public Affairs		George Perkovich Director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace		Bijan Khajehpour Political and Economic Analyst and Chairman of Atieh International		Aaron David Miller Distinguished Scholar at Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars		Trita Parsi (Moderator) President, National Iranian American Council

 

Thursday, May 24, 2012
2:00 p.m. to 3:30 p.m.
101 Constitution Ave, NW
Capitol View Conference Room, 7th Floor