Where diplomats earn their pinstripes
Hillary Clinton’s visit today to Egypt this weekend is one of those awkward diplomatic moments: she has to convey to all concerned that the United States backs a democratic transition whose fate is contested between the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) and President Morsy, who spent a lifetime as a member of the Muslim Brotherhood. That would be the SCAF’s arch enemy for many decades.
For now, the SCAF seems to have won its tug-of-war with Morsy over the future of the parliament Egypt elected last winter. The President has accepted the court decision to dissolve it. This leaves the democratically elected Morsy with little power, as the self-appointed SCAF has arrogated to itself legislative authority and fenced off the military and its budget from presidential decisions.
But it is the SCAF that is vital to America’s most important interest in Egypt: maintenance of the peace treaty with Israel, which Morsy and the Muslim Brotherhood have criticized for a long time. They are likely to seek changes in its provisions and have threatened to subject it to a referendum, which it could well lose. Morsy can also be expected to be friendlier to Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood affiliate that now controls Gaza, than the Americans or the SCAF will like.
No wonder the Secretary of State waxed eloquent on the need for dialogue as she made it clear that the United States expects the SCAF to give up its governing authority and return to a security role, presumably one subordinated to a democratically elected president. She meets with Field Marshall Tantawi, the SCAF’s chair, tomorrow. Rarely have American values and interests been more obviously in conflict. This is where diplomats earn their pinstripes.
The transition in Egypt is a mess. It is no longer clear how and when the new constitution will be written, or how and when the SCAF will surrender its legislative powers. Morsy is so far president in name only, though he has a good deal of popular legitimacy. It is no doubt awkward for the Americans to be helping a Muslim Brotherhood president to pry the powers of his office from a military establishment they have long supported and funded. But that is the only route to a decent outcome in Egypt.
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