peacefare.net

The proof is in the pudding

Belgrade finally has a new government, formed more than two and a half months after the May 6 election.  It is an unabashedly nationalist government, with Interior Minister Ivica Dačić at the helm.  The governing coalition will include his “socialists,” President Nikolic’s “progressives” as well as Mlađan Dinkić’s United Regions of Serbia.

Initial signals are that this will be a “Serbia first” government that aims for economic revival above all else.  Dačić, who will hold on to the Interior Ministry, told parliament:

The new government’s priority is the economic recovery of the country. All other key goals of this government, such as Serbia’s European future, the solving of the Kosovo issue, regional cooperation, combating crime and corruption, heath care, education, and others, will depend on whether or not we will be able to secure our country’s economic survival.

This is strikingly sensible and responsive to the views of Serbia’s voters.  Dinkić will play the key role as economy and finance minister.  Suzana Grubješić, whom I guess I know as Suzana Mrgic, will be in charge of EU integration and a deputy prime minister.

Kosovo has been demoted from ministerial rank to a mere office.  The new government is pledging to implement agreements already reached with Pristina, which is a good thing and if carried out a big change.  Aleksandar Vučić is a deputy prime minister in charge of defense, security, combat against corruption and crime, and defense minister.  This will make him, in addition to the prime minister, an important player in dealing with the thorny issues arising in northern Kosovo, where Serbian security structures, passionate rejection of Pristina’s authority and illegal trafficking of many different sorts make a combustible mix.

The new Foreign Minister, Ivan Mrkić, is a professional foreign service officer (formerly state secretary) who served the Milosevic regime in the 1990s as ambassador to Cyprus.  Whatever his role in serving Milosevic’s requirements, this should give him a very good idea of why partition of Kosovo is a really bad idea.

So what do I think about all this?  I think it is about as good as could be expected:  a newish government that reflects the election results, which defeated a somewhat less nationalist and more liberal government that also had good economic intentions but found it difficult to deliver.

The proof is in the pudding, which the American way of saying that we have to wait to see the results.  Serbs will be most interested in the economic results.  Internationals like me will be interested in what all this means for peace and stability in the Balkans.  A quick move to establish the integrated boundary/border management foreseen in one of the agreements with Pristina would be a good step in the right direction.  If they don’t like that one, there are several other agreements whose implementation awaits a willing Belgrade government.