Pas de deux
After twenty years and more of objecting to Macedonia calling itself Macedonia and months of avoiding direct contact, even in the presence of the UN mediator, the Greek Foreign Minister sent a friendly message to his counterpart in Skopje at the beginning of October suggesting a memorandum of understanding “outlining the basic parameters of a possible mutually acceptable solution” including “the general principles governing good neighbourly relations.” A month later the Macedonian Foreign Minister responded in an equally friendly tone. What’s going on here? Are we really making progress on this silly but so far insoluble problem?
I doubt it. There are clear hints in the letters exchanged that no agreement is likely any time soon. The Greek letter and MOU fail to mention the Interim Accord of 1995, which the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in December 2011 found Greece had violated. It requires Greece not to block Macedonia’s membership in international, multilateral and regional organizations under the name “Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.”
Athens instead proposes a new MOU that includes the following language:
the name agreed upon [in the future] will be used by all erga omnes and for all purposes.
This means Macedonia would have to change its name throughout its constitution as well as in all its official correspondence, documents and buildings, a condition that Athens knows is unacceptable to Skopje. While one of my Greek readers has suggested that this is negotiable, there is no sign of that in the Athens letter or text.
The response from Skopje is likewise friendly but no more forthcoming. It brushes off the Greek proposal with mention of the Interim Accord, which it clearly prefers to the proposed MOU, and the ICJ decision, which went entirely in Skopje’s favor.
So what’s going on here, if not a move towards resolution of this dreadful dispute? It seems to me likely that both sides are trying to avoid responsibility for what happens in December, when the European Council will meet and likely decide not to offer Skopje a date for the start of EU accession talks, because of a Greek veto. Athens wants to be able to say that it offered a way out that Skopje rejected. Skopje wants to be able to say that it responded positively to the Greek initiative without result.
This is diplomatic ballet, likely coached by high-priced consultants on both sides. It would be fun to watch, if it hadn’t already gone on far too long.
Greece is in blatant violation of an ICJ decision. It is a testimony to European fecklessness that 26 EU members don’t dare tell Athens it needs to back down and settle for a definitive solution farther down the pike, when Macedonia is at the threshold of EU membership. Macedonian politicians of all stripes acknowledge that will be necessary.
Washington deserves no more credit than the 26. It allowed Greece to block NATO membership for Macedonia at the Chicago summit in May, while Macedonian soldiers were guarding NATO headquarters in Kabul.
Those seeking equity must do equity. The music and the pas de deux should stop. In the absence of a resolution of the name issue, Skopje should get a date to start EU accession talks and it should enter NATO as the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, as the Interim Accord requires, at the next NATO summit in 2014. Athens’ greatest leverage will come when Skopje is ready for accession. That is the time to settle the name issue.
Of course if Athens and Skopje decide they can settle the issue now, that’s all right too. I’ll be glad if they prove me wrong, but I doubt that is what is in the cards.
RSS - Posts
