Referendum above all
Yesterday’s confusing moves by Egyptian President Morsi amount to this: he values the approval next Saturday of the illiberal draft constitution he ramrodded through the constituent assembly above all else. He was willing to surrender some of the powers he arrogated to himself last month, as they were no longer needed to protect the constituent assembly (which has completed its work) from a possible court decision on its validity. He is contemplating martial law to ensure the security of the referendum. He is claiming to be open to amendments to the constitution, by procedures that at this point are completely unclear.
What Morsi wants is the democratic validation of the constitution approval in the referendum can provide. This will ensure both an enhanced role for religion in the Egyptian state and preservation of military privileges. It will marginalize women and minorities, for whom the new constitution fails to guarantee equal rights. It will make secularist politics difficult. It will consolidate Morsi’s own hold on power and, he hopes, enable the Muslim Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party to do well in parliamentary elections.
Morsi’s opposition is apoplectic. It is hoping that street demonstrations will cause him to postpone the referendum and reopen the constitutional draft to debate and reconsideration, not just amendment. Some even ask that Morsi resign, something he shows no sign of contemplating. We can expect the next week to be tumultuous, with Morsi and the military trying to keep the referendum on track and the opposition desperately trying to derail it.*
What happens if the referendum on the new constitution is defeated? This is the one real concession in Morsi’s decree yesterday:
If the people vote against the draft constitution in the referendum on Saturday, 15 December 2012, the president is to call for the direct election of a new Constituent Assembly of 100 members within three months.
This means Morsi, who now holds legislative power (and it was the parliament that chose the last constituent assembly), will not appoint a new constituent assembly if one is needed but instead allow it to be elected.
I am still betting Morsi comes out on top. There is precious little time to organize a “no” vote and no reason for him to give in to demands that the referendum be postponed, unless it proves logistically difficult to get it done by Saturday. Many Egyptians are fed up with the street demonstrations. International factors–in particular the United States–are not interested in prolonging the disorder. Egyptian arrest yesterday of an alleged leader of the Benghazi attack on the U.S. consulate will weigh heavily in Morsi’s favor in Washington.
Morsi wants his referendum and his new constitution. He is likely to get them, sooner rather than later.
*The boycott is on.
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I think referendum should be postponed. Even if opposition was to agree with the date for the referendum to be December 15th situation is simply too volatile for referendum to be held and too chaotic for the referendum to have a chance to be properly organized. Morsi should see this, and there are two problems with this. First one is he must not think that postponing the referendum would give his enemy the time to organize (which is true) but that it would give his political adversary the time to organize. If he manages to postpone the referendum and not to look weak in a way that he postponed the referendum give legitimacy to the referendum because opposition would join in on the referendum that would solve the other problem which is how to postpone the referendum and not to look weak. I really think that he is sincerely against the violence on the streets of Egypt up to a certain trigger which exist among all the conservative forces on the planet. As for the constitution and the referendum this is all about the business mostly. Namely most of it is held by the military. I do not think that Egypt can make a modern economy with the model that would be best described as ‘military dictatorship economy model’. Projection on the results of the referendum, assuming organized opposition, chances are close to both sides. If it is to happend now conservatives (let’s call them that) would win. However out of popular vote they hold 43-45%.