Who’s afraid of North Korea?
The North Korean launch of a satellite has spooked the experts. Many thought the rocket wasn’t ready or anticipated its failure. Things seem to have gone quickly and smoothly, a stark contrast to previous attempts.
Lots of countries can launch satellites. All the other current nuclear weapons states can do it. Why so much concern about North Korea? There are two reasons:
- North Korea is North Korea;
- the UN Security Council has prohibited Pyongyang from testing long-range missiles.
Pyongyang has repeatedly shown itself ready and willing to use force, mainly against South Korea, which is pretty much the only enemy it can reach with its current arsenal. Preoccupied with its own survival, the regime is bellicose and provocative towards not only the South but also towards Japan and the United States.
Even paranoids have enemies. Tokyo and Washington are no friends of Pyongyang and would be delighted to see the regime there tumble. Short of that, they would like to see it constrained. They have been successful twice in convincing the Security Council to levy tough requirements on North Korea.
The military threat to the United States from North Korea is not the principal problem. Even with this successful missile launch, it will be decades before Pyongyang is capable of seriously threatening any of its neighbors other than Seoul. The United States is safe from North Korean nuclear weapons for a good while into the future.
But North Korea’s belligerence is destabilizing regionally. Between North Korean belligerence and Chinese nationalism, Tokyo is not wrong to think about how it needs to beef up its defense capabilities. Even the Chinese have objected to the satellite launch, which most experts believe is a thinly veiled missile test.
Also important is the weight and prestige of the UN Security Council. There are many countries that do not stick to the letter of what the UNSC decides. But the (Chapter VII) resolutions on North Korea are unusually explicit and forceful on the ballistic missile issue:
- 1718 (2006) “Demands that the DPRK not conduct any further nuclear test or launch of a ballistic missile”;
- 1874 (2009) “Demands that the DPRK not conduct any further nuclear test or any launch using ballistic missile technology.”
Note that slight shift in language, obviously intended to include something like a satellite launch, which uses ballistic missile technology even if some might say a launch vehicle is not a “missile.” North Korean defiance, which extends also to many other aspects of these two resolutions, risks convincing others that the UNSC is a paper tiger.
So now it is up to the Security Council to respond. I imagine it will find a way to tighten sanctions or other measures against Pyongyang, an approach that has not worked overly well in the past but still checks the “we did something” box. It is in fact hard to think of anything else to do. No one should today be afraid of North Korea except South and North Koreans, who suffer mightily under the Kim regime. They may have to suffer more now that the regime boasts longer-range missiles with which to frighten its neighbors.
PS: For the Korean speakers among you (translations welcome), here is the official announcement (via @shanghaiist):
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