Day: April 15, 2013

Peace Picks: April 15-April 19

Abundant interesting events in a busy week:

1. Tribal Societies & Counterterrorism in Pakistan, Monday April 15/ 11:00am-12:30pm, US Institute of Peace

Venue: Us Institute of Peace 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, D.C.

Speakers: Ambassador Akbar Ahmed, Peter Bergen, Hamid Khan

In recent months discussions around drone strikes have grown increasingly heated with claims and counter-claims around their legality, morality, and/or effectiveness as a counterterrorism weapon. Amid the heated disputes between diplomats, politicians, lawyers, and civil society activists, the views of those most directly affected by the drone strikes – those living in tribal communities in border regions – have yet to be heard.

Register for the event here:
(http://www.usip.org/events/tribal-societies-counterterrorism-in-pakistan)

2. Takedown: Inside the Hunt for Al Qaeda, Monday April 15/ 1:00-2:30pm, New America Foundation

Venue: New America Foundation, 1899 L St., N.W., Suite 400, Washington, D.C. 20036

Speakers: Philip Mudd, Peter Bergen

On September 11, 2001, as Central Intelligence Agency analyst Philip Mudd rushed out of the Eisenhower Executive Office Building next to the White House, he could not anticipate how the terror unleashed that day would change the world of intelligence and his life as a CIA officer. Mudd, now a fellow with the New America Foundation’s National Security Studies Program, would later serve as deputy director of the CIA’s rapidly expanding Counterterrorist Center and then as senior intelligence adviser at the FBI.

Please join the New America Foundation’s National Security Studies for a conversation with Philip Mudd and Peter Bergen about Mudd’s new book, Takedown: Inside the Hunt for Al Qaeda, which provides a first-person account of his role in two organizations that changed dramatically after 9/11. The book also sheds light on the inner workings of the intelligence community during the global counterterror campaign.
Copies of the book will be available for purchase.

Register for the event here:
(http://www.newamerica.net/events/2013/takedown_the_hunt_for_al_qaeda)

3. Afghanistan’s Economic Transition, Monday April 15/ 2:00-3:30pm, US Institute for Peace

Venue: US Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, D.C.

Speakers: William Byrd, Borany Pehn, Fatema Sumar, Robert Saum

Afghanistan’s current transition – involving drawdown of international combat troops and hand-over of security responsibilities to Afghan security forces as well as reductions in international aid – is now well into its second year. Along with the security and political dimensions (including the next cycle of presidential and parliamentary elections in 2014 and 2015, respectively), the economic transition is an important factor influencing the success of the overall transition process. The recent publication of the World Bank’s study ‘Transition in Afghanistan: Looking Beyond 2014′ provides an opportunity to review progress, consider key issues, and assess prospects. This event, after a brief presentation and discussants’ comments, is intended to generate an open and frank discussion on economic transition issues and policy options.

Register for the event here:
(http://www.usip.org/events/afghanistans-economic-transition)

4. Author Event: Shadow Lives: The Forgotten Women of the War on Terror, Monday, April 15/ 6:30-8:00pm, Institute for Policy Studies

Venue: Busboys & Poets @ 14th & V, 2021 14th St, NW, Washington, D.C. 20009

Come to a compelling discussion about the unseen side of the ‘9/11 wars,’ as IPS Fellow Phyllis Bennis interviews author Victoria Brittain about her new book, Shadow Lives: The Forgotten Women of the War on Terror. The book reveals the impact the ‘9/11 wars’ has had on the wives and families of men incarcerated in Guantanamo, or in prison or under house arrest in Britain and the US. Brittain shows how these families have been made socially invisible and a convenient scapegoat for the state in order to exercise arbitrary powers under the cover of the ‘War on Terror.’

Her book reveals how a culture of intolerance and cruelty have left individuals at the mercy of the security services’ unverifiable accusations and punitive punishments. Both a ‘j’accuse’ and a testament to the strength and humanity of the families, Shadow Lives shows the methods of incarceration and social control being used by the British state and gives a voice to the families whose lives have been turned upside down. In doing so it raises urgent questions about civil liberties which no one can afford to ignore.

After the discussion there will be the customary book signing by Brittain.

Register for the event here:
(http://www.ips-dc.org/events/author_event_shadow_lives_the_forgotten_women_of_the_war_on_terror)

5. Iran’s Nuclear Program: Assessing the Current State & Debating the Future, Monday April 15 6:30-8:00pm, US-Middle East Youth Network

Venue: Georgetown University, 3700 O St NW, Washington DC, White-Gravenor Hall, Room 208

Speakers: Matthew Kroenig, Colin Kahl, Michael Eisenstadt

As negotiations between Iran and the international community continue, progress towards reaching a resolution regarding Iran’s disputed nuclear program has all but stalled. What are the current prospects for the success of diplomacy? Is a military option viable, sustainable, and/or worse than the alternative, political track? Can the US prevent a preemptive strike by Israel? What ramifications might this have for regional stability and nonproliferation efforts? What might the coming months hold for the conflict surrounding Iran’s nuclear program? Explore these questions and more with Professors Colin Kahl, Matthew Kroenig, and Mr. Michael Eisenstadt from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy this Monday at 6:30pm in WGR208!

For more information see:
(http://usmeyouthnetwork.org/)

6. The Future of Egypt’s Economy, Tuesday April 16 11:30am-1:30pm, Aspen Institute

Venue: Aspen Institute, One Dupont Circle, NW Suite 700

Speakers: Heidi Crebo-Rediker, Hisham Fahmy, Daniel Kurtzer

Surrounded by political uncertainty, the Egyptian economy has experienced a sharp decline over the past two years. While the Egyptian government struggles to maintain macroeconomic stability and international confidence, it faces significant challenges; unemployment continues to increase, and the country’s key sectors have seen a sluggish recovery.

Partners for a New Beginning is organizing a roundtable discussion to address economic challenges as well as opportunities to overcome them. Panelists will address the role of the private sector and international community in driving economic growth in Egypt.

Register for the event here:
(http://www.aspeninstitute.org/events/2013/04/16/future-egypts-economy)

7. Domestic Drivers of Turkey’s Democratic Transformation, Tuesday, April 16 / 12:00pm – 1:30pm, SETA Foundation at Washington DC

Venue: SETA Foundation at Washington, DC, 1025 Connecticut Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036

Speakers: Sener Akturk, Kadir Ustun

Turkey’s democratization process over the past decade has been the subject of much debate. Many studies identify external dynamics such as Turkey’s EU membership negotiations as main drivers of democratic progress. Internal dynamics that made possible various democratic initiatives, such as the reforms allowing for much broader ethnic, linguistic, and religious minority rights, however, remain underappreciated. As the country seeks to consolidate its democracy through a new civilian constitution, lessons from the past decade will be critical to identify contours of democratic change in Turkey.

On April 16, 2013, the Young Scholars on Turkey (YSOT) Program will host a discussion on the domestic drivers of Turkey’s democratic transformation. The panel will feature Sener Akturk, Assistant Professor at Koc University in Istanbul, author of a new book, Regimes of Ethnicity and Nationhood in Germany, Russia, and Turkey, recently published by Cambridge University Press. Kadir Ustun, Research Director at SETA DC, will moderate the discussion.

Register for the event:
http://setadc.org/events/50-upcoming-events/465-domestic-drivers-of-turkeys-democratic-transformation

8. Innovation and Peacebuilding: Breaking Down Silos and Engaging Civil Society, Tuesday, April 16 / 1:00pm – 4:00pm, US Institute of Peace                 

Venue: US Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, D.C.

Speakers: Jan Eliasson, Melanie Greenberg, Jessica Berns, Al Maamoun Baba Lamine Keita, John Agoglia, Paula Gaviria Betancur and more

The U.S. Institute of Peace in partnership with the Alliance for Peacebuilding is pleased to co-sponsor an afternoon of events that will explore innovation in peacebuilding, and provide examples of working across silos to achieve more stable and durable peace.

Jan Eliasson, deputy secretary-general of the United Nations, will open the afternoon with a discussion on the challenges facing the United Nations in Conflict Resolution and Peacebuilding. During his career as one of the world’s top diplomats, Ambassador Eliasson also served as the special envoy of the U.N. Secretary-General for Darfur from 2007-2008. Preceding his work in Darfur, he was foreign minister of Sweden, after serving as Sweden’s ambassador to the U.S. from 2000-2005. His work has focused on mediation missions in the Middle East and Europe, as well as on broader topics such as landmines, humanitarian action, and conflict prevention. Ambassador Eliasson was appointed as the first U.N. undersecretary-general for humanitarian affairs in 1992. He was also a senior visiting scholar at USIP in 2009.

Following the conversation with Ambassador Eliasson and to launch the Alliance for Peacebuilding’s new semi-annual, online publication, Building Peace: A Forum for Peace and Security in the 21st Century, a select group of Building Peace authors will frame a discussion on peacebuilding approaches to the complex conflict in Mali. Drawing on the perspectives shared in their Building Peace articles, these authors will lead a discussion about how peacebuilders can work with local citizens and international actors to address root causes of conflict, and bring security to war-torn societies.

To register for the event click here:
(http://www.eventbrite.com/event/6128655975#)

9. Mobilizing the Diaspora: Opportunities for Engagement in N. Africa, Tuesday, April 16 / 2:00pm – 5:00pm, Aspen Institute

Venue: Aspen Institute, One Dupont Circle, NW, Suite 700, Washington, D.C. 20036

Speakers: Walter Isaacson

This event will feature two roundtable discussions focused on supporting entrepreneur mentorship and education as well as building out access to finance and investment. There will also be an opportunity for networking to allow for diaspora and other US stakeholders interested in the region to connect.

To register for the event click here:
(http://www.aspeninstitute.org/events/2013/04/16/mobilizing-diaspora-opportunities-engagement-n-africa)

10. The Second Arab Awakening: Revolution, Democracy and the Islamist Challenge from Tunis to Damascus, Wednesday, April 17 / 12:00pm – 1:00pm, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20004

Speaker: Adeed Dawisha

When, in early 2011, people poured onto the streets of Arab cities to demand freedom, it was not for the first time. An earlier spate of revolutions swept the Arab world in the 1950s and 1960s. Those revolutions that had promised so much bequeathed the recent crop of Arab despots. Dawisha puts the recent Arab awakening into historical context, then traces the progress and fates so far of revolutions from Tunis to Damascus, examining the overthrow of tyrants in some cases and the more brutal repression in others. Finally, he explores the threats and opportunities facing the victorious revolutionaries, the prospects for democratic transformations, and the meaning and consequences of Islamist victories at the polls.

Register for the event here:
(http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/rsvp?eid=26660&pid=112)

11. Strategic Options for Iran: Balancing Pressure with Diplomacy, Wednesday, April 17 / 12:15pm – 2:00pm, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20004

Speakers: William Luers, Ambassador James Dobbins, Thomas Pickering, James Walsh, Carla Hills

This event is held in collaboration with The Iran Project.
Former senior national security officials, military officers and experts with decades of Middle East experience have joined to present a balanced report on the strategic options for dealing with Iran. Moving the debate past politics and unexamined assumptions they argue that the time has come for Washington to strengthen the diplomatic track in the two track policy of pressure and diplomacy that has characterized current U.S. policy.

Register for the event here:
(http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/rsvp?eid=26908)

12. Heaven on Earth: A Journey Through Sharia Law, Wednesday, April 17 / 3:00pm – 4:30pm, Elliott School of International Affairs

Venue: Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20052, Lindner Family Commons

Speaker: Sadakat Kadri

Legal historian and human rights attorney Sadakat Kadri argues that many people in the West harbor hazy or wrong ideas about Islamic law. Searching for the facts behind the myths, he traces the turbulent journey of Islam’s foundation and expansion and shows how the Prophet’s teachings evolved gradually into concepts of justice.

Sadakat Kadri is a legal historian and English barrister at the Doughty Street Chambers. In addition to his latest book, he regularly contributes to various publications including The Guardian and the London Review of Books, and is the author of The Trial: A History from Socrates to O.J. Simpson (2005).

A limited number of books will be available for GW students.
The Middle East Policy Forum is presented with the generous support of ExxonMobil.

Register for the event here:
(https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1_PQdoubx4EZmIKR6iED6KwTF-rOLbsJeNGxJwEzqqHM/viewform)

13. Iran: Are We Out of Options?, Wednesday, April 17 / 5:00pm – 7:00pm McCain Institute for International Leadership                  

Venue: U.S. Navy Memorial Burke Theater, 701 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington, DC 20004

Speakers: Hon. Robert Wexler, Amb. James Dobbins, Danielle Pletka, Amb. Thomas R. Pickering

With the clock ticking and renewed negotiations underway, there is no better time than the present to stop Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. But if diplomatic attempts fail, what then? Analysts give Iran less than 18 months before its nuclear weapons capacity is assured. Successive U.S. Administrations have insisted that the use of military force to disrupt Iran’s nuclear program remains an option. As the clock winds down, are we out of options? Would military force even succeed in stopping Iran? Or would the consequences of military force be worse than a nuclear capable Iran? Hear leading American experts debate U.S. policy on Iran: Are we out of Options? — the third debate in a series at the McCain Institute.

To register for the event click here:
(http://mccaininstitute.org/events/upcoming/mccain-debate-and-decision-series)

14. Balanced Growth and Financial Stability in Turkey’ Thursday, April 18 / 9:00am – 11:00am, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies

Venue: Johns Hopkins SAIS – Nitze Building, 1740 Massachusetts Ave., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036, Kenney Auditorium

Speakers: John Lipsky, Erdem Basi

John Lipsky, SAIS distinguished visiting scholar of International Economics and former first managing director of the International Monetary Fund, and Erdem Basi, governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, will discuss this topic. Note: Breakfast will be served at 8:30 a.m. SAIS will also host a live webcast available here at the time of the event.

Register for the event here:
(http://lipsky-basci.eventbrite.com/)

15. Drone Warfare in 2030: Examining the Future of Expanding Drone Use, the Precedent that May be Set, and Constitutional Implications Here and Abroad, Thursday, April 18 / 12:00pm – 1:30pm, AU Washington College of Law

Venue: AU Washington College of Law, 4801 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, D.C. 20016, Room602

Speakers: Joshua Foust, Nathan Sales, Stephen Vladeck, Benjamin Wittes

The United States’ expanding use of armed drones has sparked numerous discussions on the legality and ethical desirability of their use. Yet the discussions seem to be merely focusing on the nation’s current practice and less on other states that will surely be deploying the warfare technology in the near future. This panel will aim to shift the current debate on the use of drones by the US to the question of how increased use will impact the laws of war and our constitutional ideals. To what extent can the US serve as a positive example for the international community with regard to using drones or has a precedent already been set?

Register for the event here: (https://www.wcl.american.edu/secle/registration.cfm)

16. Towards an Islamic Enlightenment: The Gulen Movement, Thursday, April 18 / 6:30pm – 8:30pm, Rumi Forum

Venue: Rumi Forum, 1150 17th St. N.W., Suite 408, Washington, D.C. 20036

Speaker: M. Hakan Yavuz

M. Hakan Yavuz offers an insightful and wide-ranging study of the Gulen Movement, one of the most imaginative developments in contemporary Islam. Founded in Turkey by the Muslim thinker Fethullah Gulen, the Gulen Movement aims to disseminate a ”moderate” interpretation of Islam through faith-based education. Its activities have fundamentally altered religious and political discourse in Turkey in recent decades, and its schools and other institutions have been established throughout Central Asia and the Balkans, as well as western Europe and North America. Consequently, its goals and modus operandi have come under increasing scrutiny around the world.

Yavuz introduces readers to the movement, its leader, its philosophies, and its practical applications. After recounting Gulen’s personal history, he analyzes Gulen’s theological outlook, the structure of the movement, its educational premise and promise, its financial structure, and its contributions (particularly to debates in the Turkish public sphere), its scientific outlook, and its role in interfaith dialogue. Towards an Islamic Enlightenment shows the many facets of the movement, arguing that it is marked by an identity paradox: despite its tremendous contribution to the introduction of a moderate, peaceful, and modern Islamic outlook-so different from the Iranian or Saudi forms of radical and political Islam-the Gulen Movement is at once liberal and communitarian, provoking both hope and fear in its works and influence.

Register for the event here:
(http://www.rumiforum.org/component/option,com_dtregister/Itemid,135/eventId,144/task,event_register/type,reg_individual/)

17. On the Ashes of Sykes-Picot: Turkish Foreign Policy and the Making of a New Middle East Order, Friday, April 19 / 10:00am – 11:30am, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies

Venue: Johns Hopkins SAIS – Nitze Building, 1740 Massachusetts Ave., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036, Room 417

Speaker: Soli Ozel

Soli Ozel, professor of international relations at Istanbul Kadir Has University and Miller Family Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School, and Emirhan Yorulmazlar (moderator), fellow at the SAIS Foreign Policy Institute, will discuss this topic.

To RSVP for the event, email: ckunkel@jhu.edu

 

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Anyone anywhere anytime

There is a tone of desperation creeping into Belgrade’s remarks on the failure of the dialogue with Pristina.  Serbia will meet anyone anywhere anytime under any chairmanship.

The trouble is that the EU isn’t going to want to continue to meet without real results.  Catherine Ashton, who will be traveling in the Balkans this week, has invested a lot in the Pristina/Belgrade dialogue.  She has more important things on her plate, including a difficult nuclear negotiation with Iran.  We are approaching the drop-dead date for her report to the EU on April 22.  Missing that opportunity will result in a delay in giving Serbia a date to start its EU accession talks at least until after the German elections (September 22) and likely much longer.  Belgrade needs to do something to get Ashton to modify her itinerary and stop off in Serbia (and I’d hope Kosovo as well).

For all the dazzling complexity of the issues in northern Kosovo, the vital question for Belgrade should come down to this:  will Serbs be better off accepting reintegration of the north with the rest of Kosovo, or will they not?

My answer to this question is unequivocal:  the Serbs south of the Ibar river are clearly better off having more or less accepted that they live in an independent Kosovo where they can govern themselves at the municipal level while enjoying a good deal of positive discrimination at the national level.  They unquestionably have complaints.  Rada Trajkovic famously complained that she wasn’t allowed to park her car with Serbian license plates in the Kosovo government parking lot.  There are also far more serious complaints of discrimination, intimidation and violence.  But the bottom line is clear:  the Serbs south of the Ibar are staying and participating in Pristina’s institutions even while flying Serbian flags and painting big signs that say “Kosovo is Serbia.”

I believe the Serbs north of the Ibar would also be better off accepting the reality of Kosovo’s independence and exploiting their rights and privileges under the Ahtisaari agreement, which is more than generous in providing for local self-governance while allowing them to maintain their Serbian (as well as Kosovo) citizenship and to receive education and health services provided by Serbia.  But doing that requires that Serbia abandon its efforts to maintain sovereignty over the north, even if it continues to have a lot of sway there.

To put no gloss on it:  the police and courts in the north cannot be Serbia’s police and courts.  They must be Kosovo’s, acceptable to northerners but under Pristina’s authority.  Less than this endangers Kosovo’s claim to sovereignty.

This is what Belgrade is still resisting.  Continuing to do so will make the EU wonder whether it can ever establish a clear border between Serbia and Kosovo.  It will not make northern Kosovo Serbs any better off than they are now.  Tax-free smuggling, their major enterprise, may make a few of them well off, but economic development in the north has basically stood still since 1999.  Nor will continuation of the present situation help the Serbs who live south of the Ibar, where Serb domination of the north has fed growing Albanian nationalism, especially among those who have been prevented from returning to the north for more than a decade.

For both Serbia and Kosovo, solving the problem of the north is vital to getting on with much more important business:  creating jobs, improving economic performance, fighting corruption and organized crime, governing well, preparing for EU accession.  Neither government would be wise to continue the current situation.  Both would be wise to reach an accommodation.  If there is a serious agreement, six months from now no one will remember what the row was about.  If there is none, they’ll be stuck in this rut for years.

 

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