Alas, poor Egypt

The big issue on everyone’s mind today is the crackdown in Egypt.  Here is how I’ve answered a few of the press’s good questions:

Q:  What’s your take on the crackdown against the Muslim Brotherhood? What might result from this confrontation?

A:  The unnecessary and ill-advised crackdown will make it far more difficult for Egypt to heal the rift between Islamists and secularists and move towards an inclusive and democratic government.  The military will now be quite clearly in charge, as the resignation of El Baradei confirms.  Washington will have to decide whether to suspend assistance.  It will be difficult not to do so, though suspension is unlikely to make things better.

Q:  What might be the international implication of the crisis – for other Arab countries prospects of democracy there?

A:  This unhappy outcome certainly will not enhance the prospects for democracy in other Arab uprising countries.  Islamists will say it confirms democracy has nothing to offer and will not tolerate Islamist victories.  Would-be autocrats, including Bashar al Assad, will be encouraged to do their worst.  Minorities will be even more frightened of clashes with Islamists.  Things are in a downward spiral.  

Q:  How it might impact the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (and maybe the current talks)?

A:  Hard to tell.  It may not make a big difference.  The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood and Egyptian army both want a Palestinian state but both have also been willing to deal with Israel in a pragmatic, if not particularly friendly, way.  The Brotherhood helped negotiate the ceasefire after last November’s flare-up between Israel and Hamas  The Egyptian military was already destroying the tunnels that supply Hamas in Gaza.  The crackdown will not help Hamas and may give a bit of a boost to Fatah, but I doubt it will much affect the talks Israel/Palestine talks that started today.