Peace picks, October 21-25
With a sense of normalcy returned to the city after the reopening of the government, some timely events coming up this week:
1. Will India’s Economics be a Victim of its Politics?
Monday, October 21 | 2:00pm – 3:30pm
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW
The Indian economy has entered a difficult period over the past eighteen months with the rate of GDP growth having halved, inflation still stubbornly high, and deficits remaining substantial. Economists are asking whether India’s rapid growth of the last decade was more a credit-fueled aberration than a result of structural reforms. To complicate matters, economic concerns are increasingly secondary to political debate as India prepares for critical state elections this winter and parliamentary elections in spring 2014.
Jahangir Aziz and Ila Patnaik will assess the state of India’s economy in the context of India’s growing election fervor. Edward Luce will moderate.
JAHANGIR AZIZ
Jahangir Aziz is senior Asia economist and India chief economist at JP Morgan. He was previously principal economic adviser to the Indian Ministry of Finance and head of the China Division at the International Monetary Fund.
ILA PATNAIK
Ila Patnaik is a nonresident senior associate in Carnegie’s South Asia Program and a professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy in New Delhi. She writes regular columns in the Indian Express and the Financial Express and recently co-led the research team for India’s Ministry of Finance Financial Sector Legislative Reforms Commission.
EDWARD LUCE
Edward Luce is the Washington columnist and former Washington bureau chief of the Financial Times. Earlier he was their South Asia bureau chief based in New Delhi. He is the author of In Spite of the Gods: The Strange Rise of Modern India (2006) and Time to Start Thinking: America and the Spectre of Decline (2012).
2. 22nd Annual Arab-U.S. Policymakers Conference
Tuesday, October 22 – Wednesday, October 23 | 9:00am – 6:00pm
Ronald Reagan Building, Atrium Hall, 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
The National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations is pleased to announce that its 22nd Annual Arab-U.S. Policymakers Conference, “Navigating Arab-U.S. Relations: Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities,” is scheduled for October 22-23, 2013, at the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center in Washington, DC. Over two days, Arab and American leaders from government, the military, business, and academe will share privileged information, insight, and recommendations that are vitally important to the definition of issues, the ordering of priorities, and the direction of policy formulation and implementation in American and Arab governments alike. Featured speakers at this year’s conference include HRH Prince Turki Al Faisal Al Sa’ud, CENTCOM Commander General Lloyd J. Austin III, Dr. David Lesch, Ms. Sarah Ladislaw, Dr. Bassam Haddad, Dr. Herman Franssen, H.E. Mohamed Bin Abdulla Al-Rumaihi, and many more internationally renowned specialists. The 2013 Arab-U.S. Policymakers Conference will provide attendees with two days of shared ideas, intense discussions and debate, and extensive networking.
3. Will America Lead?
Tuesday, October 22 | 9:00am – 4:00pm
Andrew W. Mellon Auditorium, 1301 Constitution Avenue NW
9:45am: What Defense Does America Need?
Rudy deLeon, Center for American Progress and former U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense
Amb. Eric Edelman, FPI Board Director and former U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy
Dr. Dov S. Zakheim, Center for Naval Analyses and former U.S. Under Secretary of Defense (Comptroller/Chief Financial Officer)
Moderator: Bradley Peniston, Editor, Armed Forces Journal
10:45am: Coffee Break
11:00am: The Crisis in Syria
Rep. Eliot Engel (D-NY), Ranking Member, House Committee on Foreign Affairs
Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI), Chairman, House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence
Moderator: David Ignatius, Associate Editor and Columnist, Washington Post
12:00pm: Lunch
All Forum Attendees Invited
1:00pm: Afghanistan 2014: What are the Stakes?
General John R. Allen, USMC (Ret.)
Dr. Seth G. Jones, Associate Director, International Security and Defense Policy Center, RAND Corporation
Dr. Frederick W. Kagan, Director, American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project
Dr. Ashley J. Tellis, Senior Associate, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Moderator: Lara Logan, Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent, CBS News
2:00pm: Assessing the Asia Rebalance
H.E. Kim Beazley, Australian Ambassador to the United States
Rep. J. Randy Forbes (R-VA), Chairman, House Armed Services Subcommittee on Seapower and Projection Forces
Mr. Shigeo Yamada, Political Minister, Embassy of Japan
Moderator: Josh Rogin, Senior Correspondent for National Security and Politics, The Daily Beast
4. Securing the Nuclear Enterprise: What Nuclear Crises Teach us About Future Nuclear Threats
Tuesday, October 22 | 11:30am – 1:00pm
Stimson Center, 1111 19th Street NW, 12th Floor
Next spring, the U.S will join other world governments and organizations in The Hague for the 2014 Nuclear Security Summit. Like previous gatherings in 2010 and 2012, the upcoming summit will include debate about the steps the global community must take to prevent nuclear materials from falling into the hands of non-state actors. Central to this objective is the ability of nuclear armed states to maintain control over their weapons and sensitive materials. One way the U.S. can identify existing gaps in the control regime and prepare for the summit is by carefully studying previous nuclear weapons crises.
During its Cultural Revolution, China nearly lost control of its nuclear arsenal. This history – little known in the U.S. – is both chilling and critical to understanding Chinese attitudes towards nuclear security. In the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center’s (NPEC) new study, Nuclear Weapons Security Crises: What Does History Teach?, Chinese nuclear weapons management expert and Executive Director of Project 2049 Institute Mark Stokes tells the story of China’s near-nuclear crisis and the lessons that can be learned from it.
Come join us to celebrate the release of NPEC’s latest book and learn more about this important history. Lunch will be served and free copies of Nuclear Weapons Security Crises: What Does History Teach? will be available.
Speakers:
Matt Stokes, Executive Director, Project 2049 Institute
Henry Sokolski, Executive Director, Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Brian Finlay, Managing Director, Stimson’s Managing Across Boundaries Initiative
5. A Conversation with Sergii Bondarchuk — Ukraine and its Future in the World
Tuesday, October 22 | 12:30pm – 1:30pm
American Security Project, 1100 New York Avenue NW, Suite 710W
Ukraine is at a turning point. It has now been over 20 years since Ukraine became a fully independent state; now it faces huge choices and opportunities. The discovery of what could be vast amounts of natural gas; its geo-political relationships; and, its recent move to deepen relations with the EU – are all are coming to a head.
Sergii Bondarchuck will discuss these issues and many more, giving a uniquire insight into what is happening on the ground in Ukraine, and what the future will hold for US-Ukraininan relations.
Mr. Bondarchuk is a Ukrainian civic leader, farmer and businessman. He represents a new generation of Ukrainian leaders who are committed to good governance, European values and national development.
We hope you can join us.
6. A Discussion with the Ambassador of Russia: Russian-US Bilateral Relations — The View from Moscow
Tuesday, October 22 | 5:00pm – 6:30pm
The Russian Embassy, 2560 Wisconsin Avenue NW
REGISTER TO ATTEND: Email keickholt@globalinterests.org
The Center on Global Interests will host a discussion with His Excellency Sergey I. Kislyak, Ambassador of the Russian Federation to the United States and Ambassador Steven Pifer, director of the Brookings Arms Control Initiative.
Speaking on the latest developments in the Russia-U.S. relationship, Ambassadors Kislyak and Pifer will provide their perspectives on current bilateral relations and the most pressing global issues. An introduction by Dr. Nikolai Zlobin and a moderated conversation between the speakers will be followed by an open discussion with the audience.
Space limited, RSVP required
Please respond with name and organizational affiliation to keickholt@globalinterests.org
7. Foreign Fighters in Syria and Beyond
Wednesday, October 23 | 1:45pm – 4:00pm
Hosted by the Foreign Policy Research Institute at the Reserve Officers Association, 1 Constitution Avenue NE
REGISTER TO ATTEND: Email events@fpri.org
As the pyre that is Syria continues to burn there is an increasing amount of attention being paid to its proxy war nature. In particular, attention is increasingly being paid to the foreign volunteers that have come to fight either on the side of the rebels or for the government of Bashar al-Assad. What impact are these third party nationals having in the conflict in Syria? What impact will they have when they return to their home countries with advanced training and skills acquired while fighting abroad? Will they be more or less destabilizing to their home country or other countries than the previous foreign fighters that fought in Afghanistan in the 1980s, in Bosnia or Chechnya in the 1990s, or those that fought in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan in the 2000s?
Building on the work of two previous conferences dealing with the problem posed by so-called “foreign fighters,” FPRI’s Program on National Security brings together an excellent panel of relevant subject matter expertise to discuss the questions posed above and more. Clint Watts is an FPRI Senior Fellow and a former Army officer and FBI Special Agent who has written extensively and provided instruction on dealing with the spread and countering of violent extremism. Barak Mendelsohn is also an FPRI Senior Fellow and an associate professor of political science at Haverford College where his research focuses on al-Qaeda and its affiliated movements in international politics. Last, Will McCants is a fellow in the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution and director of their Project on U.S. Relations with the Islamic World.
Reservations are required. RSVP (attendance in person):events@fpri.org; Registration for the webcast:webcast@fpri.org
8. The Chemicals, the Conflict, and the Challenges in Syria
Wednesday, October 23 | 5:00pm – 6:30pm
American Association for the Advancement of Science, 1200 New York Avenue NW, 2nd Floor
The use of chemical weapons by any nation constitutes a significant threat to international peace and security. Nevertheless, in 2013 chemical weapons were used in Syria, sparking international outrage and condemnation. With pressure from the U.S. and Russia, Syria acceded to the Chemical Weapons Convention in September 2013 and agreed to participate in an accelerated process to destroy the chemical weapons. While this has been received as an unexpected yet positive development, the implementation of such a process raises significant science and security issues.
On October 23, the American Association for the Advancement of Science’s Center for Science, Technology and Security Policy and the Federation of American Scientists are convening a panel to discuss the science and security involved in the implementation of the Chemical Weapons Convention and U.N. Security Council Resolution 2118 in Syria.
The speakers will explore the technical, political, and regional issues surrounding chemical weapons in Syria, including: the technical solutions and expertise required to ensure accelerated destruction of chemical weapons; the broader regional impact of Syria’s accession to the Chemical Weapons Convention; and the challenges involved in carrying out destruction in a civil war environment.
Speakers:
Dr. Paul Walker, Green Cross International
Michael Moodie, International CBW Commentator
Dr. Chen Kane, Center for Nonproliferation Studies
9. Gulf Diplomacy in a Shifting Middle East: Continuity, Change, and Implications for the United States
Thursday, October 24 | 12:00pm – 1:45pm
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW
Recent and dramatic developments in the Middle East have presented new challenges to the foreign policies of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Arab states. The Egyptian military’s ejection of the Morsi government, the United Nations resolution on Syria’s chemical weapons, and burgeoning U.S.-Iranian dialogue have exposed sharp differences between the United States and the Gulf states over the regional order.
Gulf commentators, particularly in Saudi Arabia, are calling for more muscular and independent foreign policies to balance what they see as America’s unreliability, retreat from the region, and even betrayal. Some observers forecast a new trend of Gulf unilateralism that may undercut U.S. objectives. Others see greater continuity, with only slight divergences as a form of hedging.
A panel of Gulf scholars and analysts will explore current trends and likely future trajectories in the foreign policies of this strategic group of states.
GREGORY GAUSE
Gregory Gause is professor and department chair of political science at the University of Vermont. He focuses on international relations and Middle Eastern politics. He is the author of a number of articles and three books: The International Relations of the Persian Gulf (Cambridge University Press, 2010); Oil Monarchies: Domestic and Security Challenges in the Arab Gulf States (Council on Foreign Relations Press, 1994); and Saudi-Yemini Relations: Domestic Structures and Foreign Influence (Columbia University Press, 1990). He is a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Doha Center.
MEHRAN KAMRAVA
Mehran Kamrava is professor and director of the Center for International and Regional Studies at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service in Qatar. He is the author of a number of journal articles and books, including: Qatar: Small State, Big Politics (Cornell University Press, 2013); The Modern Middle East: A Political History since the First World War (University of California Press, 2005); and Iran’s Intellectual Revolution (Cambridge University Press, 2008).
FAHAD NAZER
Fahad Nazer is a political analyst at JTG Inc. He was previously a political analyst at the Embassy of Saudi Arabia in Washington, DC. His writing has appeared in theNew York Times, International Herald Tribune, Foreign Policy, YaleGlobal Online Magazine, and Al-Monitor, among others. His writing has also been featured by the Council on Foreign Relations and CNN, and was included in The Kingdom: Saudi Arabia and the Challenge of the 21st Century (Columbia University Press, 2009).
FREDERIC WEHREY
Frederic Wehrey is a senior associate in the Carnegie Middle East Program focusing on the Persian Gulf. He is the author of Sectarian Politics in the Gulf: From the Iraq War to the Arab Uprisings (Columbia University Press, forthcoming January 2014).
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