Day: June 6, 2014
Responses to Al Qaeda 3.0
The American Security Project Tuesday discussed “Al Qaeda 3.0: Three Responses to the Changing Nature of Al Qaeda” on the current terrorist threats in the Middle East and North Africa and how several countries have responded to these concerns. Speakers Said Temsamani, Zack Gold and Timothy Fairbank detailed the principal terrorist threats in Morocco, Egypt, and Yemen, and whether each country’s approach has been successful in combatting these threats in recent years.
The previous Senior Political Advisor of the US Embassy in Rabat, Said Temsamani, said the primary terrorist threat in Morocco is the rising number of Moroccans participating in the Syrian civil war. Approximately 3,000 have voluntarily left to fight in Syria over the past several years, largely due to the ideological appeal of participating in the war. It has become logistically easy and inexpensive for these young Moroccan men to get to Syria—a visa is not required and they receive immediate combat training upon arrival.
While many combatants have been drawn to organizations such as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Sham (ISIS), it is now an increasing concern to the government that young Moroccans have established their own group, known as Harakat Sham, to engage in this ideological–and some would even say jihadist–war.
The foremost issue lies in the reentry of these fighters who are now choosing to return to Morocco after participating in the Syrian civil war. In response to this influx of combatants, Morocco has focused on an approach centered on “spiritual diplomacy,” specifically providing training to both men and women to become scholars and imams. This counter Salafist-jihadist strategy centers on a revival of Moroccan Islam and has largely been successful—so much so that other countries throughout the region, such as Libya and Tunisia, have begun to request this teaching for their own religious leaders and scholars.
Zack Gold, researcher and writer on US-Middle East policy, analyzed the major terrorist threats in Egypt after the revolution in January 2011. Terrorist activity over the past several years has risen both in the Sinai and along the Libyan border due to the disappearance of security forces from these areas. As a result of past crackdowns and repression in the Sinai, the tribal Bedouin population responded to this void in authority by destroying police stations and producing weapons intended for Gaza. The Egyptian government has responded to these threats with brute force and repression. While somewhat effective in deterring the Sinai threats, it is merely a short-term measure.
Timothy Fairbank examined the current terrorist activity in Yemen and the challenges the government faces. He highlighted the weaknesses of the Yemeni cabinet in combatting the significant threats of Al Qaeda of the Arab Peninsula (AQAP), specifically due to the lack of elected officials with a true mandate. AQAP has become the number one terrorist challenge in the country over the past several years. It has continued to gain supporters both from Yemen as well as Saudi Arabia.
While AQAP is always in a state of flux, Fairbank emphasized that the increase in counterterrorism and drone strikes has in fact coincided with an increase in the size and presence of AQAP in Yemen. A state is weakened when the people do not support local government leaders and suffer from violence and poverty. In the case of Yemen, he concluded, “the weaker the state, the greater the chance for AQAP to infiltrate.”
Morocco is doing better than Egypt and Yemen, where revolution and war have sapped the strength of the state.
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Keep it clean
It’s unusual that I post three days in a row on the Balkans, but on reflection yesterday I did not emphasize enough how important it is that Kosovo’s elections be transparently clean. The 2010 parliamentary election had serious problems. There were fewer problems in last November’s municipal elections, but they were not perfect. I am told the issues often arise within political parties, with candidates trying to falsify preference votes. I have no way of independently judging that.
But I do know that it is vital to Kosovo’s most important ambitions–NATO and eventual EU membership–that this election go well. A democratic state has to be able to conduct an election well. It isn’t easy–we’ve still got problems in parts of the US more than 220 years after independence.
I am told the EU is sending some observers, and the Kosovo government is recruiting some in the US. But international observers are not nearly as important to a good election as local people, who can much more readily detect fraud and abuse, both at polling stations and away from them. I am told there will be a nongovernment telephone hotline for citizens to call to report problems. That strikes me as a fine idea.
What really counts in the end is the attitude of those who might try to abuse the electoral system. If they are convinced that not only the country’s best interests but also their own will be served by a good election, they will align their behavior accordingly. If they think their competitors will be able to cheat, they will respond in kind. Potential malefactors need to fear the consequences. A big turnout helps to ensure that polilticians know they are being watched, but it also strains the electoral mechanism.
The country’s best interests are clear. If this election goes badly, Pristina will have a harder time convincing Brussels that it merits goodies like the visa waiver program and a Stabilization and Association Agreement, which I am told should be ready for signature in January. A bad election would also give Serbs and other non-Albanians pause, raising once again the archetypal Balkans question: why should I live as a minority in your country when you can live as a minority in mine?
If the election goes well, whoever gains the largest share of seats will have a much easier road ahead. As always in Kosovo, gaining a majority will require a coalition, one that includes Serb and other non-Albanian participation. The capacity to form the government depends in part on everyone accepting the validity of the election results. If I think you may have cheated your way to victory, I’m far less likely to want to negotiate a pact with you to govern.
So yes, the Kosovo election may be dull. But it is important to those who live there. The good functioning of the electoral mechanism would itself be a key result.
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