Day: January 29, 2016

The good news from Tikrit

I have been curious about the situation in Tikrit, liberated from the Islamic State nine months ago. This morning’s NPR report is the best I’ve seen/heard on the subject. Sounds like a solid B grade to me, which under the circumstances is pretty good. And the first year isn’t over yet. Whatever grievances persist, returns and startup of construction are excellent signs.  It is post-liberation conditions that will decide the eventual outcome of the fight against the Islamic State, not merely military prowess. 

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Worsening

On Wednesday, Human Rights First hosted ‘How to Navigate Egypt’s Enduring Human Rights Crisis: Blueprint for U.S. Government Policy.’ Neil Hicks, Director of Human Rights Promotion at Human Rights First, moderated. Panelists included Brian Dooley, Director of the Human Rights Defenders Program at Human Rights First, Amy Hawthorne, Deputy Director for Research at the Project on Middle East Democracy, and Nancy Okail, Executive Director at the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy.

Dooley explained how difficult it is for human rights activists to operate in Egypt. He gave specific examples on human rights violations in the past few weeks. Arrests have spiked. Anyone related to activists, or who has the potential to become an activist, is suspicious to the Egyptian government. The crackdown on the media worsens, and Egypt now has the second highest rate of journalist imprisonment.

Focusing on the deterioration of human rights since the Arab Spring, Okail said the Egyptian government’s response has always been quick, cosmetic fixes, rather than long-term solutions. The government is addressing symptoms, rather than causes, leading to no real positive impact in the long run. The unrest in Egypt happens because of the problems that were not properly addressed. These problems existed prior to the Arab Spring, which did not cause them

Okail also said the current regime uses control instead of power: control happens in the absence of power, and violence occurs as a result. When a leader has real power, s/he does not have to force constituents to act accordingly. Using intelligence agencies, heightening security, implementing force, and controlling the media are all approaches the current government employs in order to maintain its authority.

Hawthorne said the scale of violence by the state is troubling and tears at the social fabric. Today’s rate of disappearances did not happen under Mubarak, who targeted Islamist groups. This government targets anyone viewed as a threat to security and stability. Over 5,000 apartments were searched near Tahrir Square. Why is the government cracking down so hard on potential activists? Hawthorne suggested people within the regime are worried about what dissent will do to stability. President Sisi bears most of the responsibility for what is happening, even if he does not have complete control over the whole government.

Addressing the American role, Hawthorne said US influence in Egypt is at a low point, limiting Washington’s credibility, political capital and ability to affect change. Relationships with the Egyptian government are difficult. Relationships with human rights activists is are complicated. The root of the challenging relationships is the distrust of the US. The United States does not embrace Sisi, but still gives aid to Egypt. Hawthorne recommended that the US should  investigate where its aid ends up, but this is difficult to do, as the Egyptian government is not transparent.

The U.S. should focus on four things moving forward:

  1. Listening to Egyptian partners. What these people prioritize, the US should also prioritize. These priorities may change, and the US should observe why they change.
  2. Paying attention to human rights defenders and civil society organizations. They are trying to hold the Egyptian government accountable for human rights abuses.
  3. Consistency when speaking on Egyptian human rights issues. Inconsistency breeds to skepticism.
  4. Honestly assessing government officials. A normal relationship should not be maintained as long as human rights violations are occurring.

Overall, the human rights situation in Egypt seems to be worsening. Verbal condemnation of human rights abuses simply is not enough. Perhaps taking away a significant amount of aid would be a way to put real pressure on the Egyptian government to change its approach towards journalists and activists.

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