Day: June 8, 2018

The 7 – 1 reality sitcom

That’s what is meeting in Quebec today. The odd one out at the G7 is the United States, which has managed to unite Canada, the UK, Germany, France, Italy and Japan in a display of pique against President Trump’s trade policy. That’s what you get for using spurious national security arguments to raise tariffs on steel and aluminum rather than pursuing your complaints through the World Trade Organization (WTO) and withdrawing from a nuclear deal with Iran that the other 6 view as vital to their security.

The vodka will be flowing in Moscow, which will be delighted to hear its Shanghai Cooperation Organization (that’s China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan) compared favorably with the more venerable, more powerful, and in the past more effective G7. President Putin is getting his money’s worth: Trump is dismantling Washington’s relationship with its friends and allies in both the Atlantic and the Pacific, dramatically weakening the West and providing openings for Moscow and Beijing to fill the vacuums. Trump has even called for Russia to be invited back into the G7 (which for a time was the G8). If you find that hard to believe, watch it:

Trump is also claiming this morning that Iran has moderated its behavior due to his withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal:

They’re no longer looking so much to what’s going on in Syria, what’s going on in Yemen and lots of other places. They’re a much different country over the last three months.

This is completely untrue. Iran has done nothing to withdraw or lessen its involvement in Syria, Yemen, and other places. It is not only the same country over the last three months, it is getting ready to start up a plant to produce advanced centrifuges for uranium enrichment.

And the President is vaunting his meeting next week with Kim Jong-un:

Obama, Schumer and Pelosi did NOTHING about North Korea, and now weak on Crime, High Tax Schumer is telling me what to do at the Summit the Dems could never set up. Schumer failed with North Korea and Iran, we don’t need his advice!

No Democratic president ever wanted to concede a summit with the North Korean dictator without getting something in return up front. Trump has done so, to no noticeable benefit to the US so far. Nor is there any sign he will get anything tangible in Singapore, though you can bet on his vaunting a fantastic triumph.

The simple fact is that Trump is finding it a lot easier to offend America’s friends and allies than to get anything from our adversaries, who recognize that he is a bullshitter who flogs flim-flam. It would all be laughable–a kind of reality sit-com–if it weren’t real. The G7-1 is however unified and represents an economy larger than that of the US. Trump may prefer a light-on-substance summit with Kim Jong-un, and he may want to falsely claim that Iran has moderated its behavior, but neither our friends nor our adversaries will be fooled. The only fool in this reality sit-com resides in the White House.

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Shaping a New Middle East Balance of Power

The Conflict Management Program and the Aljazeera Centre for Studies

 are pleased to invite you to

Shaping a New Balance of Power in the Middle East:

Regional Actors, Global Powers, and Middle East Strategy

Tuesday June 12, 2018 9:00 AM – 3:00 PM

1740 Massachusetts Ave., NW

Washington, DC 20036

Kenney Auditorium

Register

The Gulf and the Middle East are suffering a paroxysm of conflict involving virtually all the regional states as well as the US and Russia and many different non-state actors. What dynamics are driving this chaos? What can be done to contain or reverse the damage? How might a new balance of power emerge?

9-9:30: Registration

9:30-9:45: Opening Remarks

Ø  Ezzedine AbdelmoulaManager of Research, Aljazeera Centre for Studies, Aljazeera Media Network 

9:30-11:00: Dynamics of Political Geography in the Middle East

Ø  Chair:   Daniel SerwerDirector, SAIS Conflict Management Program

Ø  Ross HarrisonNon-resident Senior Fellow Middle East Institute

Ø  Kadir UstunExecutive Director, SETA Foundation

Ø  Khalid al JaberGulf International Forum

Ø  Suzanne MaloneyDeputy Director, Foreign Policy Program and Senior Fellow, Center for Middle East Policy and Energy Security and Climate Initiative, Brookings Institution

11:00-11:15: Coffee Break

11:15-12:45: Non-State Actors and Shadow Politics

Ø  Chair:   Paul SalemSenior Vice President for Policy Research & Programs, Middle East Institute

Ø  Randa SlimDirector of Conflict Resolution and Track II Dialogues Program, Middle East Institute;  Fellow, SAIS Foreign Policy Institute

Ø  Fatima Abo AlasrarSenior Analyst, Arabia Foundation

Ø Crispin Smith, Harvard Law School

Ø Anouar Boukhars, Non-Resident Scholar, Middle East Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Associate Professor of International Relations, McDaniel College

12:45-1:30: Lunch

1:30-3:00: New Balance of Power

Ø  Chair:   Mohammed CherkaouiAljazeera Centre for Studies, and George Mason University 

Ø  Jamal Khashoggi, independent writer

Ø  P. Terrence HopmannProfessor of International Relations, SAIS, Conflict Management Program

Ø  Camille PecastaingSAIS, Middle East Studies 

Ø  Hussein Ibish, Senior Resident Scholar, Arab Gulf States Institution in Washington 

 

Tuesday June 12, 2018 9:00 AM – 3:00 PM

1740 Massachusetts Ave., NW

Washington, DC 20036

Kenney Auditorium

photo ID will be checked at the door

For disability accommodations, please contact saisevents@jhu.edu  or 202-999-3332 at least one week prior to the event.

Have questions about Shaping a New Balance of Power in the Middle East: Regional Actors, Global Powers, and Middle East Strategy? Contact SAIS Conflict Management Program

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