peacefare.net

Dear Albin,

First and foremost: congratulations on your election win and your successful efforts to form a coalition! While I still haven’t seen your government program, I would like to offer some thoughts on the problems you face and how to deal with them.

You now face the daunting challenges of leading a country that is less than two decades from a devastating war and only 12 years from independence. Kosovo lacks universal recognition and struggles to get treated fairly by the European Union, which has withheld the visa waiver, includes five non-recognizing countries, and blames Kosovo more than Serbia for the current stagnation of talks between Belgrade and Pristina. While Kosovo’s economy has grown pretty well, it is still plagued by poverty, corruption, political favoritism, and nepotism. Its politics are rough, its state less than mature, and some of its Serb minority as well as Belgrade still unreconciled.

There will be no instant solutions, but there are some things you can do that will set the right course.

My understanding is that the EU was prepared to fulfill its visa waiver promise if Kosovo would suspend its tariffs on Serbian goods in exchange for Serbia ending its de-recognition campaign and allowing Kosovo into international organizations like Interpol and UNESCO. This was a good deal that your predecessor rejected for domestic political reasons. The start of your mandate is the ideal time to suspend the tariffs, in exchange not only for the visa waiver and an end to the de-recognition campaign but also Serbian implementation of the several Pristina/Belgrade agreements, especially the one on energy.

Nothing you do will work well unless Kosovo’s economy continues to grow, preferably even faster than it has to date. I understand that your political movement Vetevendosje opposes privatization and is keen on state intervention in the economy and perhaps even a sovereign wealth fund. Some think the Trepca mining complex will be manna from heaven.

I doubt those are the directions in which you will find economic salvation. I’ve never seen a serious report on Trepca that was positive. The investments required to modernize the complex are big. Zinc and lead, its primary mineral deposits, are just not worth much on the market today. Kosovo’s growth in the future will depend far more on its business environment, which has not been improving as it should, and on its small and medium enterprises than on Trepca. You need entrepreneurs more than magnates, who too often turn into oligarchs.

You also need the state, by which I mean institutions that can guarantee continuity under the rule of law even as politics sweeps one government out and another one in. Kosovo has done pretty well in forming and developing some of those institutions. I would cite the Constitutional Court, the Kosovo Police, the Defense Ministry, the nascent Army, and the Foreign Ministry as good examples, but partly because I am more familiar with them than many of the other institutions. All however need more professionalism and parliamentary oversight if they are to meet European Union standards. Statebuilding is unglamorous, but vital.

Accession to NATO and the EU will, I trust, remain your strategic objective. You have some advantages over other aspiring states in the EU regatta. Kosovo’s press has been relatively free and its courts relatively independent, at least at the upper level. Your legislation has been EU-compliant since independence. Your main shortcoming is in implementation. You need to get much more serious about applying all the legislation you pass.

I am an enthusiast for EU membership and skeptical of propositions like the “mini-Schengen” proposal to eliminate borders among Serbia, Albania, and Macedonia as well as the recent agreement to open air service to Belgrade, which reiterates Serbia’s sovereignty claims and ignores far more important issues concerning control over air operations above Kosovo. Kosovo’s limited state capacity would have to be diverted from implementing the acquis communautaire in order to participate in mini-Schengen, which is one more regional effort to achieve many of the things that should have been achieved in the Regional Cooperation Council, the Belgrade/Pristina dialogue, the Central Europe Free Trade Area (CEFTA), and other fora.

Far more important is that you take the offensive in proposing things that would really matter to your country and shift the onus of refusing to Belgrade. Your Defense Minister and Army Chief of Staff should make themselves available to talk with their Serbian counterparts. You could propose that the Kosovo/Serbia border be demarcated as a technical exercise (which it is) even without Serbian recognition. I would like to see the Serbian Church’s property rights recognized, consistent with Kosovo’s constitution, on a unilateral basis: the Constitutional Court’s decision on church property in Decan/Decani needs to be implemented. It is vital that Serbs in Kosovo see and feel that the Kosovo state is prepared to treat them fairly.

The Europeans and Americans may pressure you to re-enter the dialogue with Belgrade sooner rather than later. I see no advantage to Kosovo in doing that before Serbia’s parliamentary election in April, as the internationals will want to get something for President Vucic that he can use to his advantage in his electoral campaign. Best to play hard to get, insist on a good deal, and be prepared to wait for the period immediately after the election, when Vucic will be at the peak of his power and able to deliver on things that will be well forgotten before the next Serbian election.

Albin: when we met 21 years ago, I was with the United States Institute of Peace on my first visit to Pristina and you were the right hand to the Kosovo thinker and undaunted activist, Adem Demaci, who has continued to be an inspiration to you in seeking to contribute to your country’s freedom and welfare. I did not imagine when we first met that you would become the prime minister of an independent Kosovo with aspirations to join NATO and the EU. That is an enormous privilege, which you have won with skill and determination. I wish you success. As my grandmother would say about anything new, even if it couldn’t be worn: “wear it in good health.” (trog gezunterheit).