Month: February 2020

Stephenson’s army, February 5

– The tropes of reality television dominated the presidential address aspects of SOTU, as noted in Atlantic and Politico.
– The budget comes out next Monday. Already, those who want more or were given less are leaking. FP notes complaints about F15 funding.

– The SecDef’s office leaked their own talking points.

– The speech and debate clause of the Constitution lets members break laws — like the whistleblower protection act — with impunity, as Sen. Paul [R-KY] did yesterday in revealing a name said to be the Ukraine whistleblower.
– Axios reportrs that Israel and UAE  had a secret White House meeting.
– You can’t escape the internet. GOP nominee withdraws.
– Fred Kaplan [whose new book on nuclear weapons is excellent] fact checks Trump on foreign policy.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, February 4

– New Yorker details evolution of US targeted killing policy and has more details of decision process on killing Suleimani.
– Lawfare writer looks at civil-military relations and constitutional issues during the war with Mexico. More on the war fighting and peace making than just starting the war.
HASC group looks to the future in hearing tomorrow.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Dear Albin,

First and foremost: congratulations on your election win and your successful efforts to form a coalition! While I still haven’t seen your government program, I would like to offer some thoughts on the problems you face and how to deal with them.

You now face the daunting challenges of leading a country that is less than two decades from a devastating war and only 12 years from independence. Kosovo lacks universal recognition and struggles to get treated fairly by the European Union, which has withheld the visa waiver, includes five non-recognizing countries, and blames Kosovo more than Serbia for the current stagnation of talks between Belgrade and Pristina. While Kosovo’s economy has grown pretty well, it is still plagued by poverty, corruption, political favoritism, and nepotism. Its politics are rough, its state less than mature, and some of its Serb minority as well as Belgrade still unreconciled.

There will be no instant solutions, but there are some things you can do that will set the right course.

My understanding is that the EU was prepared to fulfill its visa waiver promise if Kosovo would suspend its tariffs on Serbian goods in exchange for Serbia ending its de-recognition campaign and allowing Kosovo into international organizations like Interpol and UNESCO. This was a good deal that your predecessor rejected for domestic political reasons. The start of your mandate is the ideal time to suspend the tariffs, in exchange not only for the visa waiver and an end to the de-recognition campaign but also Serbian implementation of the several Pristina/Belgrade agreements, especially the one on energy.

Nothing you do will work well unless Kosovo’s economy continues to grow, preferably even faster than it has to date. I understand that your political movement Vetevendosje opposes privatization and is keen on state intervention in the economy and perhaps even a sovereign wealth fund. Some think the Trepca mining complex will be manna from heaven.

I doubt those are the directions in which you will find economic salvation. I’ve never seen a serious report on Trepca that was positive. The investments required to modernize the complex are big. Zinc and lead, its primary mineral deposits, are just not worth much on the market today. Kosovo’s growth in the future will depend far more on its business environment, which has not been improving as it should, and on its small and medium enterprises than on Trepca. You need entrepreneurs more than magnates, who too often turn into oligarchs.

You also need the state, by which I mean institutions that can guarantee continuity under the rule of law even as politics sweeps one government out and another one in. Kosovo has done pretty well in forming and developing some of those institutions. I would cite the Constitutional Court, the Kosovo Police, the Defense Ministry, the nascent Army, and the Foreign Ministry as good examples, but partly because I am more familiar with them than many of the other institutions. All however need more professionalism and parliamentary oversight if they are to meet European Union standards. Statebuilding is unglamorous, but vital.

Accession to NATO and the EU will, I trust, remain your strategic objective. You have some advantages over other aspiring states in the EU regatta. Kosovo’s press has been relatively free and its courts relatively independent, at least at the upper level. Your legislation has been EU-compliant since independence. Your main shortcoming is in implementation. You need to get much more serious about applying all the legislation you pass.

I am an enthusiast for EU membership and skeptical of propositions like the “mini-Schengen” proposal to eliminate borders among Serbia, Albania, and Macedonia as well as the recent agreement to open air service to Belgrade, which reiterates Serbia’s sovereignty claims and ignores far more important issues concerning control over air operations above Kosovo. Kosovo’s limited state capacity would have to be diverted from implementing the acquis communautaire in order to participate in mini-Schengen, which is one more regional effort to achieve many of the things that should have been achieved in the Regional Cooperation Council, the Belgrade/Pristina dialogue, the Central Europe Free Trade Area (CEFTA), and other fora.

Far more important is that you take the offensive in proposing things that would really matter to your country and shift the onus of refusing to Belgrade. Your Defense Minister and Army Chief of Staff should make themselves available to talk with their Serbian counterparts. You could propose that the Kosovo/Serbia border be demarcated as a technical exercise (which it is) even without Serbian recognition. I would like to see the Serbian Church’s property rights recognized, consistent with Kosovo’s constitution, on a unilateral basis: the Constitutional Court’s decision on church property in Decan/Decani needs to be implemented. It is vital that Serbs in Kosovo see and feel that the Kosovo state is prepared to treat them fairly.

The Europeans and Americans may pressure you to re-enter the dialogue with Belgrade sooner rather than later. I see no advantage to Kosovo in doing that before Serbia’s parliamentary election in April, as the internationals will want to get something for President Vucic that he can use to his advantage in his electoral campaign. Best to play hard to get, insist on a good deal, and be prepared to wait for the period immediately after the election, when Vucic will be at the peak of his power and able to deliver on things that will be well forgotten before the next Serbian election.

Albin: when we met 21 years ago, I was with the United States Institute of Peace on my first visit to Pristina and you were the right hand to the Kosovo thinker and undaunted activist, Adem Demaci, who has continued to be an inspiration to you in seeking to contribute to your country’s freedom and welfare. I did not imagine when we first met that you would become the prime minister of an independent Kosovo with aspirations to join NATO and the EU. That is an enormous privilege, which you have won with skill and determination. I wish you success. As my grandmother would say about anything new, even if it couldn’t be worn: “wear it in good health.” (trog gezunterheit).

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What is fueling MENA fires

“Saudi Arabia and its coalition partners have transferred American-made weapons to al Qaeda-linked fighters, hardline Salafi militias, and other factions waging war in the Middle East, putting US national security interests in jeopardy.”

On January 27, the New York Center for Foreign Policy Affairs hosted a panel discussion on the topic of “Betrayed by an Ally: U.S. National Security in the Middle East” at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. The discussion included three speakers: Bassima Alghussein, the CEO of Alghussein Global Strategies and a former White House Appointed Congressional Advisor, Jeff Stacey, a national security and global development consultant, contributor to the New York Times, and former State Department official, and Edward P. Joseph, a broadcast and print commentator, US foreign policy professional, and veteran. The discussion was moderated by Joel Rubin, a national security, foreign policy, and congressional expert, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Legislative Affairs, and the current Jewish Outreach Director for the Bernie Sanders Presidential Campaign.

Saudi Arabia

Alghussein claims that $8 billion in US arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the UAE have exposed three facts:

  • The weapons fell into the wrong hands because they were captured by the Houthis in Yemen.
  • Saudi Arabia conducts human rights violations with US weapons in Yemen.
  • US arms sales to Saudi Arabia fuel an arms race between the Saudis and the Iranians.

Alghussein believes that arm sales without restriction may threaten US interests. When the Trump administration enabled Riyadh’s blockade against Qatar, Doha moved closer to Tehran without fulfilling any Saudi demands.

Iran

Joseph is more concerned with Iran’s behavior. Its nuclear program is based more on internal motives than external fears. The Saudis have shown restraint. They didn’t retaliate when the Iranians attacked oil facilities in September. If Iran can develop a nuclear program based on fears of Israeli strikes, why can’t Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Jordan develop their own nuclear programs? Joseph believes it is Iran that creates its own security risks by taking a provocative position.

Stacey reminded that Iran favored the JCPOA, which brought it with economic and diplomatic benefits. He suggested that the US should remove sanctions against Iran, which constrain moderates in the parliament. The assassination of Soleimani was unwise and unjustified because it strengthened Iranian political hardliners. He noted different reactions to the assassinations of Soleimani and al Muhandis between Iraq and Iran. Things are still under control in Iraq, which has maintained strategic relations with the US. In Iran, the killing of Soleimani and the downing of a Ukrainian airliner have aroused anti-regime protests and galvanized cries of “death to the dictators.”

Libya

Joseph emphasized the complexity of the conflict in Libya, which includes regional, ideological, identity, and tribal factors as well as external drivers. Russia and Turkey intended to establish an agreement similar to the Astana process for Syria by gathering domestic and external oppositions in Moscow earlier this month. That failed, because the Government of National Accord sought a ceasefire, but General Haftar did not.

The Libya summit January 19 in Berlin succeeded in bringing outside actors and Libyan rivals together. Joseph points out that the Berlin Summit was subsequent to previous Italy-Libya and France-Libya meetings. While Italy aims to maintain control over its former colony and ensure Libya’s security, France has competing economic interests. Italy and France will continue to compete in Libya.

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Stevenson’s army, February 3

– Is Iran active in Afghanistan? Centcom head says yes.
– Is there US gunboat diplomacy in Venezuela ?Looks like it
– Why didn’t Israeli cabinet vote to annex more of West Bank?  Looks like US pressure worked.
– Who made State Dept dysfunctional? Kori Schake says Pompeo is only partly to blame.
-Is the political center folding? A GOP consultant was quoted over the weekend as saying, “The only thing in the center of the road is dead possums and yellow lines.” GOP message guru Frank Luntz has more in this WaPo story:

By now, Frank Luntz figured that emotionally exhausted Americans would be hungry for unity, eager to embrace moderate messages and candidates who promised to find and claim common ground.

But Luntz, a longtime Republican consultant who conducts focus groups for news organizations, has been taking the temperatures of voters in Iowa, New Hampshire and other states, and he has found that “people are desperate to vote, but the center has collapsed.”

“They want the pitchfork message, not the unity message — on both sides,” he said.

“I wish I was wrong, but that fear of losing the country is deep and very emotional, on both sides,” Luntz added. “The Trump side believes the left is trying to overturn democracy, and they will fight like hell to prevent it. And the Democrats have a disdain for Donald Trump that I’ve never seen. This isn’t as bad as 1968, but it’s pretty damn bad.”

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, February 2

– RollCall found an anonymous staffer who writes about daily life on the Hill.
– A foreigner living in Beijing describes life under the coronavirus quarantine.
– FP says Trump has dismantled the interagency system to deal with pandemics.
– WSJ has a tick-tock on the development of the administration’s Mideast plan.
– CNAS says Congress needs to revise its oversight of cybersecurity issues.

I missed Friday’s “miscellany” I think:

– Pompeo calls Chinese Communist Party “central threat of our times.”
– WH says new budget will keep Ukraine aid at current levels.
House passes measures repealing 2002 AUMF and requiring authorization for war with Iran. Will be vetoed if Senate also approves.

– Lawfare writer says Trump is crippling NSC staff.

– UPenn has released its annual ranking of global thinktanks.
– Afghan Special IG has more bad news about Taliban strength.

– FAS has new paper on low yield nukes.

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