Day: April 10, 2020
Taiwan has met the Covid-19 challenge
Despite a 24 million population, Taiwan’s share in the global caseload remains low with 300 cases and 5 fatalities. How did Taiwan respond to COVID-19? What are the implications of its response? On April 9, the Hudson Institute hosted a panel discussion on “Taiwan’s Strong COVID-19 Response: Remarks by Foreign Minister Joseph Wu.” The discussion featured four speakers:
Vincent Chao: Director of the Political Division, Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in the United States
Patrick Cronin: Senior Fellow and Asia-Pacific Security Chair, Hudson Institute
Rob Spalding: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Joseph Wu: Foreign Minister of Taiwan
Seth Cropsey: Senior Fellow and Director of the Center for American Seapower, Hudson Institute, moderated
The Taiwan model
Wu stated that Taiwan is vulnerable due to its proximity to China, lack of access to the WHO, thousands of Taiwanese living and working in Wuhan, and three million visitors from China annually. The pandemic, however, has had only a minor impact on Taiwan. Wu listed steps that Taiwan has done in this crisis taken:
- Quick response: Taiwan’s first response to this pandemic was as early as December 31.
- Early deployment: When the first case showed up on January 21, Taiwan set up CECC (the Central Epidemic Command Center) to authorize border control, body temperature testing, quarantine, and a tracking program.
- Transparency: CECC hosts daily press conference to brief the public domestic and international information.
- Export ban, rationing, and rapid increase of production on critical supplies: Taiwan issued an export ban when the government detected a wave of Chinese procurement.
- Whole-of-government approach: Ministries cooperated to make joint decisions under CECC’s command.
- Rearrangement of the medical institutions to meet the emergency requirements: Taiwan has designated over 160 testing facilities.
- Preventive measures against in-hospital outbreaks
- Contact tracing: Identifying potential cases by tracing contacts.
Wu thinks that Beijing is misleading the public by using conspiracy theories about the origins of the coronavirus and fabricated government proclamations. Taiwan attempts to show that authoritarian regimes are not the only ones that possess resources and capabilities to combat the crisis. A free and open, democratic Taiwan can deal with the problem as well. Taiwan is seeking participation in the WHO since its absence leaves a gap in the global health system and undermines WHO.
Implications
Cronin indicated that the world cannot exclude Taiwan in fighting this pandemic crisis. China should not politicize public health. Taiwan needs a higher status on the global stage to close down flights, tackle the economic crisis, ensure maritime safety, and protect intellectual property.
Chao believes that precaution and overreactions are necessary in this crisis. Taiwan’s national health insurance plays an important role in integrating and visualizing medical records, which gives medical authorities more data about the situation. Chao pointed that the passing of Taipei Act in 2019 was good timing as China was engaging in an aggressive campaign in the South China Sea against Taiwan’s diplomatic allies. This law gives Taiwan a signal that the US can counterbalance pressure that China exerts around the world.
Troops
Cronin emphasized that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) might have suffered some readiness problems. It is impossible for the PLA to remain unaffected in this pandemic crisis since it was deployed in the epicenter of the COVID-19. China, nevertheless, might have covered this up because it doesn’t want to undermine the PLA’s deterrence nor tarnish its reputation.
Spalding demonstrated that US Department of Defense has ensured that troops on mission duties are sequestered and kept safe from the pandemic. COVID-19 could be a chance for China, which was pressuring Taiwan, the East China Sea and the South China Sea even before the COVID-19 crisis, to make gains in the Indo-Pacific region. The Defense Department, he said, is ready to deter China’s activities in Western Pacific and defend US allies.
Here’s the video for this panel discussion:
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Stevenson’s army, April 10
– Two Brookings scholars praise the initiation of paper hearings by Congress, just as the SASC postpones its second because of perceived problems.
–DOD has delayed its budget development schedule because of so many people working from home.
– NYT says vote by mail doesn’t always benefit Democrats, cites GOP states that like it.
– CNAS has several good papers on the national security workforce.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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He can’t talk himself out of it
Anthony Fauci is trolling Donald Trump. The President is ordering up plans to reopen businesses next month. Fauci is saying the virus will make that decision. Who is right?
Fauci is. Any decision to send people back to work before the virus is under good control will generate a giant second wave of infection and extend in both time and space the economic damage due to Covid-19. While there are some indications that infection may be beginning to peak in New York City and other hot spots, much of the country has yet to see its first wave of infection. All the states that have hesitated and resisted social distancing measures are bound to suffer next.
The one thing that could accelerate the reopening of the economy is testing. If I can be sure everyone I am working close to has been tested and found negative for the virus, then of course I’d be happy to go back to work, to movie theaters, and to school. But the Federal government has failed from the first to make enough testing available. Are you really going to go to a restaurant where someone who has not been tested is coughing at the next table? Are you going to sit in a movie theater or classroom with people who have not been tested?
A premature return to work will vastly increase the economic damage, not decrease it. Trump should be worried about that, since his prospects in the November 3 election depend heavily on the state of the economy. But this is a president who thinks he can talk himself out of trouble. The opposite is more the case. His daily press briefings are hurting his popularity, even while attracting lots of viewers. They are reminders that he and his Administration are supposed to be in charge and are therefore responsible for the disastrous impact of the epidemic in the United States.
Trump’s mendacity, ignorance and egotism are the culprits. He tried for weeks to play down the threat, then shifted to placing blame on Obama, the Chinese, WHO, and Democratic governors. His minions have followed wherever he goes, echoing his latest efforts to shirk responsibility. Fox News tries to portray him as having been right all along, despite the obvious change in his line from it’s-not-worse-than-the-flu to no-one-has-ever-seen-anything-like-this. Read David Frum’s account if have doubts.
At this point, maybe we can hope to get to the far side of this epidemic by July, but it will leave a wake of devastation that will last much longer. Lots of businesses in the US will go under. Growth may perk up before the end of 2020, but it will take years to recover fully and decades to pay off the vast increase in the public debt. The United States will lose ground economically and politically relative to other countries that have dealt more effectively with the virus, including China and Germany. Who would want to follow the leadership of a country that reacted so ineffectively to the virus as the US?
Outside the US, the big impact will be on poorer countries, where testing and treatment will be in even shorter supply. Many countries in Africa and the Middle East were already facing giant youth bulges before the virus hit. If their older and poorer populations are culled, which is what we should expect, they will be left with slowed growth and an even greater youth bulge. The consequences for stability in already unstable areas will be disastrous. Trump, who has ignored this international dimension of Covid-19’s impact, will find again that he can’t talk himself out of it.
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