Day: March 3, 2022
One more Trump first
I know we are all focused on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but in the meanwhile the Congressional committee investigating January 6 is considering referring Donald Trump for prosecution:
This is good news, as it both nails the January 6 assault on the Capitol as criminal and also assigns accountability to the then President. That’s a first for the US Congress and a past President. Now let’s see what the Department of Justice will do with it.
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Stevenson’s army, March 3
– NYT details Western help to Ukraine.
– WSJ notes pro-Russia sentiment in Middle East
– FP China Brief notes how China is censoring Ukraine news.
– Defense News assesses chances for Ukrainian resistance.
– Atlantic assesses Russian economic vulnerabilities.
– Changing mood on Capitol Hill. Concerns over Sen. Rubio’s tweets of war info.
Policy process: All cables going from the State Dept go under the name of the SecState, though few have actually been seen by him. Axios has the story of a cable to 50 countries urging US diplomats to say India and UAE were “in Russia’s camp.” Oops. Cable recalled. The recall of the strongly worded cable indicates either a process error with a fabled and vital work product — or a policy dispute inside the U.S. government involving two key allies.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
Share this, I'll really appreciate it:
Putin has failed, but that’s little comfort
Russians are going to be a lot better off if their army fails in Ukraine than if it succeeds. Ukrainians as well. President Putin by contrast thinks he cannot survive failure. He is likely right. The invasion he thought would enable absorption of Ukraine and Belarus into an enlarged Russian Federation is a strategic failure. Most Ukrainians and Russians don’t want it. Putin may declare it, but reality will deny it.
The situation on the ground
That however makes little difference right now. The Russian army has overtaken, if not entirely taken, Kherson, near Ukraine’s southern coast. Kharkiv is under bombardment, as is Kyiv. The Russians are planning to surround both and demand surrender. Failing that, they will obliterate parts of these two largest cities in Ukraine. The picture is not good:
Ukrainian military and civilian resistance is still strong but faces overwhelming force. My guess is Putin will have to use it, making an eventual occupation even more difficult than it might otherwise have been.
The situation in the world
The international effort in support of Ukraine is going far better than the war. Sanctions have already begun to bite. The ruble is down. Interest rates are up. Russian hard currency reserves are mostly frozen. International companies are moving out. Russians may not yet have understood the consequences, but their standard of living is going to collapse.
Almost a million Ukrainians have fled, mostly to neighboring countries. The EU so far is welcoming them. The logistics of handling the crowds at the border are however daunting. Housing, feeding, and providing education and healthcare for the mainly women and children refugees will be more than daunting.
The situation in Russia
Russians have demonstrated against the war. Opposition leader Alexey Navalny has appealed on Twitter from his prison cell for more protests. How Russians react will be pivotal. If they blame Putin for their economic troubles and turn out by the millions in peaceful demonstrations, Ukraine might be saved sooner rather than later from Moscow’s designs. If the Russians blame the West and fail to demand withdrawal from Ukraine, Putin will be able to survive, at least for now.
Things will get harder
The West has proven remarkably unified and forceful in its reaction to Russian aggression. It won’t be easy to keep it that way. Europe is solid, because the threat is clear and immediate. The Americans so far are solid too, but higher gasoline prices and a slowed recovery could put Biden in a bind before the November election. The coordinated drawdown of petroleum reserves , in which 31 countries participated, was the right thing to do. But it did not have the immediate effect desired. Oil everywhere and natural gas prices in Europe are still spiking.
None of that changes the strategic picture. Putin has lost. The ambition to absorb Ukraine into a new Russian empire is unachievable. But the Ukrainians are also losing. Their country faces destruction, occupation, and repression. Putin has failed, but that’s little comfort.
RSS - Posts
