Month: July 2022

Stevenson’s army, July 30

– Politico wonders whether Russia was behind the collapse of the Italian government

– NYT says Blinken resists Hill calls for Russia to be designated a terrorist supporting state.

[I agree. It causes more diplomatic problems than it adds to Russian punishment. But, of course, it sounds beautifully tough.]

– Here’s CRS background on the law.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, July 28 and 29

-WaPo sees brighter Ukraine prospects.-

Wagner forces said to be in front lines for Russia.

– US poll sees economic problems affecting support for Ukraine.

– WSJ quotes Ukraine complaints about not being able to attack in Russia.

– CHIPs bill now awaits Biden signature. Here are the details.

– NYT says China has made big advances in chips.

I missed this yesterday from Charlie:

– NYT’s Peter Baker suggests Xi is using foreign policy issues to distract from domestic problems.-

– Politico notes that Nancy Pelosi has always been a China hawk.

– WSJ sees Europe ready for long standoff with Russia.

– Politico & others see large neo-Nazi network in Europe & US

– Politico explains why Democrats agreed to big defense increases.

– RollCall reports threats to Hill interns.

Big CHIPS bill passes Senate.

Author rebuts critics of his argument that social media have weakened US democracy.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, July 26

– Russia has significantly cut natural gas supplies to Europe. Carnegie has good background.

– CNN says Huawei equipment could endanger US nuclear forces.

-Techie explains why Russia hasn’t jammed GPS more.

– Politico tells how Saudis manipulate the US press

– NYT details Chinese strategy in Africa.

– NYT carries clear signal administration doesn’t want Pelosi to go to Taiwan now.

– Lawyers answer complaints about Electoral Count Act.

– The Hill sees a “GOP civil war” over Ukraine.

Organizational culture differences are even causing problems at a major military hospital.

Orban opposes race-mixing.-

– Jake Sullivan gives long interview.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Wake up: in the Balkans bad ideas never die

Six years ago I published a piece criticizing electoral reform proposals for the Federation 51% of Bosnia and Herzegovina. It was clear then and even clearer now that this reform would

  1. Disempower people who happen to live in parts of the Federation where their particular ethnicity doesn’t amount to more than 3% of their total in the country;
  2. Empower ethnically nationalist political parties, some of which oppose the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country.

The High Representative (responsible for interpreting the Dayton accords and making sure the country stays on target implementing them) is considering imposing these so-called “reforms.” The only justification for them is the ambition of European and American diplomats. They want to be able to say they’ve done something.

But what they want to do would be inimical not only to the peace agreement but also to US and European interests. It’s a bad idea promoted by local politicians determined to make it virtually impossible to remove themselves from power. It would also guarantee that Bosnia would remain dysfunctional and vulnerable to Russian mischief-making. Sooner or later, it would lead to secession of both a Croat and a Serb entity, undermining the Western position on Ukraine and creating a new radicalized Muslim state.

Politicians who want to choose their voters

The main proponent of these ideas is a Croat nationalist political party (HDZ) that aims to create a third, ethnically defined “entity” inside Bosnia, splitting the Federation. The HDZ wants to remove the representatives of Croats living in relatively small numbers in some cantons. That would shift the Croat electorate entirely to cantons in which the HDZ holds an overwhelming majority.

This “reform” would be a classic case of politicians choosing their voters rather than voters choosing their representatives. Getting rid of votes from Croats who coexist with their fellow-citizens would boost the nationalist monopoly. With enhanced representation it has been unable to win at the ballot box, the HDZ would be able to cooperate with one or another Serb nationalist party to ensure no real electoral reform in the Federation or any constitutional reform in the state.

Secession on the horizon

The HDZ would likely even go further. It could encourage the 49% of the country that is Republika Srpska to follow through on its many threats to secede. That would prompt the secession of the HDZ-dominated parts of the Federation, leaving one or two non-viable, rump Islamic states in central Bosnia. Avoiding this scenario was a major reason for NATO intervention in Bosnia during the 1990s. It is no more attractive now than it was then. Only radical Islamists would rejoice if it were realized. Most Bosniaks would feel abandoned and resentful, though some of their nationalists would also benefit.

The Russians would love it

A dysfuntional or partitioned Bosnia serves Russia’s interests well. Either makes NATO or EU membership impossible. Moscow has long supported secessionist rhetoric on the part of Republika Srpska. It also supports the Croat ambition for a third entity. The situation is in many ways analogous to that in Ukraine. Moscow opposes effective government in Kiev by supporting secessionists in Donbas as well as in Crimea (which Russia has annexed). “Reform” along the lines the High Representative is considering would bring glee to President Putin, who will quickly use it to justify the dismemberment of Ukraine.

Why would Washington and Brussels support this?

Politicians who want to choose their voters. Ethnonationalist separation the Russians would love. Stalling NATO and EU enlargement. Justifying the dismemberment of Ukraine. Why are the US and the EU, in principle opposed to all these things, allowing (perhaps even encouraging) such “reform.” In the Balkans bad ideas never die. The adults in Washington and Brussels need to wake up.

Stevenson’s army, July 25

– Yale prof says Russian economy is hurting.

– Politico details fights over size of the Navy.

– Politico has more on AIPAC-related campaign involvement.

– Task & Purpose tells of new documentary with Afghan vets.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, July 23

So what’s been happening? Russia and Ukraine agreed to a grain shipment deal. Good.

But I still share Andrew Sullivan’s concerns that Putin can outlast the fragmenting West.

WSJ says the administration is still resisting sending long distance armed drones.

SASC finally released its NDAA materials.

Max Boot defends the USMC reform plans.

A bunch of retired generals and admirals call Trump’s behavior dereliction of duty.

DOD doesn’t want Pelosi to visit Taiwan.

Poliitco explains why Huawei sanctions are limited.

I came across an earlier WaPo article on changing cyber rules.

Here’s a summary of the new bill to reform the electoral count law.

Peter Beinart has details on AIPAC-linked funding of congressional races.

CNA analyst skewers Colby’s China strategy.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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