Month: July 2022
Stevenson’s army, July 12
– The House takes up the NDAA this week, with over 1200 amendments filed.
– GOP resists Democratic proposals for increased aid to UN to counter China.
– Big LDP win foreshadows revisions to Japan’s constitution.
– US says Iran is shipping drones to Russia.
– Putin goes to Tehran for meetings including Turkey.
– WSJ says US is working to reform WTO.
– WaPo says ISIS planned attacks in Western Europe.
– NYT sees Ukraine war turning into test of stamina.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, July 11
So I’m back home for a few days and have scanned the papers. What’s still significant?
-President Biden put his Mideast policy into a WaPo op-ed just before his Wednesday trip to the region.
– Reuters says US likely to resume arms sales to Saudis.
– Heads of MI5 and FBI put out joint statement on threats from Chinese Communist Party
– NYT says US will tighten export controls as part of plan to counter Chinese tech.
– Defense News says NATO will do country-pairings to strengthen eastern flank.
-Politico has good background article on CODELS.
– Hill staff survey finds hopeful signs.
– Report notes that Hill office budgets can be spent on non-election TV ads.
– Hill article summarizes research on sources of political outrage.
– And Dana Milbank says Gingrich and McConnell deserve significant blame for fueling distrust in government.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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The time to remember has come
My esteemed Middle East Institute colleagues Paul Salem and Brian Katulis have set a low bar for President Biden’s trip to the Middle East this week. They want him to send a signal of renewed diplomatic commitment to the region.
There’s a hitch
It’s an important objective, but there is a hitch. It is the signs of reduced US commitment that have incentivized many improvements in relations among Middle Eastern countries. This is clear in Yemen. The current ceasefire came about in part because of US reluctance to continue supporting Saudi efforts to counter the Houthis. Iraq’s current role mediating between Iran and Saudi Arabia would be inconceivable if the Americans hadn’t withdrawn most of their forces. The wars in Syria are calming partly because the Americans have mostly withdrawn. The remainder are limiting action exclusively to the Islamic State and Al Qaeda.
Israel’s newfound ambition to help guard Arab Gulf security is also a consequence of reduced American commitment. The Ibrahim/Abraham accords that President Trump initiated essentially trade Arab recognition for Israeli security assistance. The Arab Gulf monarchies regard that as better than American help. The Israelis don’t demand respect for human rights. Spyware and air defense have proven attractive propositions. Diplomatic recognition hasn’t proven costly to the Arab states that have done it so far (UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco), but the Saudis have hesitated.
And a fly in the Saudi ointment
That’s because of the fly in the ointment. Israel is refusing not only to make peace with the Palestinians but even to accept two states as the basis for a future peace. Israel’s current ambitions are clear: to keep the Golan Heights and all of Jerusalem as well as many of the settlements on the West Bank. The Palestinians would then get only a “state-minus.” That would lack not only an army but sovereign control over its very limited territory. Israel’s attitude is unlikely to change, even after its next election. Prime Minister Netanyahu is gone, but not his singular accomplishment: killing the spirit of Oslo.
Plus an elephant in the room
The elephant in the room is Iran. Negotiations for re-entry into the Iran nuclear deal (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) are faltering. If they fail, Iran will have the option within a year of producing enough enriched uranium to make several atomic bombs. Attacks on its nuclear facilities and personnel would only delay the inevitable, perhaps by years but more likely by months. They would also give Tehran reason to attack the Gulf states, either directly or through proxies.
The situation will improve only marginally if the JCPOA is revived. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will then use sanctions relief to reinvigorate their proxy military interventions in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. That is precisely what the Gulf states don’t want.
Diplomacy>military
Paul and Brian rightly underline the good things American diplomacy could try to do: improve governance, encourage regional de-escalation and integration, and build civilian ties to the United States, both with citizens and institutions. But Washington has proven inept so far at beefing up diplomatic efforts once the troops are gone. Witness Iraq, where a mostly civilian-focused strategic framework agreement has languished after the military withdrawal. As Chas Freeman pointed out years ago, our diplomats have forgotten diplomacy without force. The time to remember has come.
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No sword dancing on treacherous terrain
President Biden’s op/ed in the Washington Post previews his visit next week to the Middle East. He will stop in Jerusalem, the West Bank, Jeddah (for a regional Arab meeting), and Riyadh. The piece has two audiences: the domestic one and the international one, especially in the Middle East but also in Europe and the Far East.
What the Americans want
There are four salient issues for Biden’s domestic audience: the Iran nuclear deal, support for Israel, oil prices, and human rights. America is split on the Iran nuclear deal. Half support Biden’s desire to re-enter it. The other half want to continue the so far unsuccessful effort to sanction Iran into submission, with the possibility of military action if that fails. On support for Israel’s security, there is overwhelming support. But Americans increasingly want accountability for Israeli abuses against Palestinians. Biden avoids that subject in the op/ed.
Most Americans want lower oil prices. Saudi Arabia has been reluctant to increase production, partly in retaliation for Biden’s criticism of human rights practices in the Kingdom, particularly the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. That is not a dinnertime conversation topic in the US. But there are many informed voices calling for accountability beyond the minimum the Saudis have so far done.
What the world wants: nuclear deal and Iran’s regional power projection
The rest of the world has a somewhat different set of priorities: not only Iran’s nuclear program but also its regional power projection as well as oil prices. Beyond the US, there is little concern for Israel’s security or human rights, apart from the plight of the Palestinians.
Most of the world would like to see the Iran nuclear deal operating once again. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have not, despite the risks to them of war if Israel or the US seeks to destroy the Iranian nuclear facilities. Biden should be aiming to understand their perspective better. My guess is they would be fine with re-entry into nuclear deal provided the US pushes back harder on Iran’s regional power projection.
That could mean doing more to weaken the Houthis in Yemen. It could also mean reducing Iran’s presence in Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq, where the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its proxies are major players. Strengthening the nascent regional air defense system (see video above) or even Saudi entry into the Ibrahimic accords are other possibilities.
What the world wants: oil prices and Palestinians
On oil prices, the Saudis may seek some assurances on the downside while the Americans push for increased production. Europe and the Far East will wish the Americans success. Russia, Iran, Iraq, and other major producers will want prices to remain above $100 per barrel. That is what they all need to balance their budgets. No American president can promise sustained high oil prices. But the US is now a net oil and gas exporter. A nod to stability in the oil market is not out of the question.
While Biden will visit the West Bank, he has so far done little more than restore aid to the Palestinians President Trump had zeroed out. The op/ed fails to mention the two-state solution or Israeli responsibility for human rights abuses against Palestinians. It doesn’t even mention the rumored intention to re-open the US consulate in Jerusalem. That had acted for decades before Trump as a de facto embassy to Palestine. We can only hope Biden will be more forthcoming on those issues during his trip.
Treacherous terrain
The Middle East is treacherous terrain for any American president. Trump blundered by sword dancing with the Saudis, both literally and figuratively. He also wrote the Israelis a blank check (including for their territorial ambitions) and ended support for the Palestinians. Biden won’t commit those mistakes. He will try to build on the Ibrahimic accords that Trump initiated, strengthen and unify Arab defenses against Iran, and reach some sort of accommodation on oil production and prices. Odds are the trip will not be a brilliant success, but the ambitions are at least more realistic than his predecessor’s.
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Some advice is right, some wrong
Emirati academic Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a well-known figure in Washington, has offered some advice to President Biden (I used Googletranslate into English and apologize for any confusion that may cause):
- Confronting Iran should be top priority.
- Stronger and more confident in the 21st century, the Gulf Arab states have their own interests with China and Russia that the US should respect.
- Oil and gas are more important than ever.
- Forget about democracy and human rights.
- Don’t serve Israeli interests.
Iran, Russia, and China
The first two items I can agree with. Iran’s nuclear threshold status and its regional activities are serious problems for the Arab Gulf states and for the United States. The former makes the latter even more perilous. Yet somehow Abdulkhaleq concludes that Washington is wrong to want to re-enter the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA aka Iran nuclear deal). Does he really think the push-back in the region will be easier once Tehran has nuclear weapons? Is he willing to risk a missile attack on Abu Dhabi or Dubai if the US and/or Israel attacks Iranian nuclear facilities?
The Gulf Arab states certainly have their own interests to pursue with Russia and China. OPEC+, that is the traditional oil cartel plus Moscow, is taking advantage of the Ukraine war to maintain high oil prices. Gulf oil and gas flow predominantly to the Far East, where China is a major consumer. That is bound to affect thinking in Abu Dhabi and Riyadh as well as Doha. Beijing is for now enjoying the benefits of sanctioned and discounted Russian oil but will no doubt have more to say about oil and gas prices than Washington, which may not always sound like it but is enjoying America’s role as an oil and gas exporter.
Energy
Oil and gas are not more important than ever to the world’s economy, even if they remain crucial to Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Russia. We are in the last decades of oil dominance of energy markets. Gas is a different question. Europe and the U.S. may be suffering from high prices for the moment due to the Ukraine war, but that won’t last forever. In their latest rise, oil prices have not reached their previous peak in real terms and are now declining. Saudi Arabia and Russia both need more than $100/barrel to make their budgets balance. They are at about that mark today.
Democracy and human rights
Abdulkhaleq is frank in asking us to forget about democracy and human rights. Mostly we do, but the Arab Gulf states make it difficult. I might hope a professor who was once arrested for an errant tweet would be more supportive of Western concern about human rights. I might even suppose this paragraph is intended as personal protection. But it ill-behooves someone willing to harshly criticize American democracy, which he does, to suggest that Americans not speak up about state-sanctioned murder of a Saudi journalist and mistreatment of women that even the Kingdom is now reforming.
Israel
I imagine that fifth point is also about self-protection, though more from the Arab intellectual milieu than from the UAE government. Abu Dhabi is second to no other Gulf Arab state in seeking to improve relations with Israel, with which the UAE shares its position on the JCPOA. I don’t object to the former, even if I dislike the latter. The real question is whether the UAE will use the influence it has gained from the Ibrahimic accords to benefit the Palestinians, who have so far found themselves marginalized by the newfound friendship between Israel and the Arab Gulf.
My score
So I give the Professor a score of 2 out of 5, with extra credit for being frank and communicating clearly and concisely. Some of his advice is right, some wrong. But there is virtue in frankness.
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Stevenson’s army, July 1
FYI, I [Charlie Stevenson] have grandparent duty for much of the next few weeks and won’t be able to read and report on the news as often as usual.
Meanwhile. note that the Army has paused its rule allowing enlistment of kids without a high school degree.
Sen. Leahy’s hip surgery really complicates Democratic plans in the 50/50 Senate.
Sen. McConnell threatens to block action on the popular bipartisan America Competes Act if Democrats push a reconciliation bill.
Commerce plans to increase limits on technology exports.
Yesterday, Charlie posted this, while I was traveling, under the heading NATO and more:
– WaPo summarizes the meeting. Here’s the official communique and the new NATO Strategic Concept.
– Reuters says there’s a deal on Kaliningrad.
– Norway suffered a cyber attack.
-Former SASC staffer wants more for Pacific Deterrence Initiative.
– VA reform blocked by parochial Senators, WaPo says.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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