Ukraine: Putin 3, Trump 0

Putin knows what he doing. Trump doesn’t. Sock puppet would be a compliment.

Russian President Putin scored three goals Friday in his meeting with Donald Trump in Alaska. Putin broke through the isolation the West had imposed due to the Ukraine war. He convinced Trump to advocate the Russian proposal for an end to the Ukraine war based on territorial swaps. This is instead of the ceasefire Ukrainian President Zelensky wants and Trump had promised the Europeans he would pursue. And Trump abandoned his threat of severe secondary sanctions on Russia’s trading partners.

Trump intends to push Zelensky for territorial swaps when they meet, along with European leaders, Monday. There is little sign Trump got anything in return. Some are mumbling about Putin accepting European peacekeepers in Ukraine. But this proposition protects Russia as much as protects Ukraine. And the Europeans are not yet ready to take it on.

TACO

This ignominious outcome is unusual top-level meetings between Moscow and Washington. Both generally prepare well and are willing to walk if need be. That is what Trump had said he would do if he didn’t get the ceasefire. But he really does always chicken out when it comes to Putin.

I can think of a lot of reasons for this:

1. Trump’s obvious admiration for Putin and his autocratic powers.
2. Over-estimation of Russian power.
3. His avowed goal of allying with Russia.
4. Past dependence on Russian financing.
5. Current business ambitions, in particular for a hotel in Moscow.
6. KGB recruitment many years ago.
7. Distaste for Ukraine and Zelensky.
8. Disdain for European interests.
9. Profound ignorance of European history.
10. Trump’s desire for a Nobel Prize.

We don’t know which of these or others is decisive. But we do know that Trump is a pushover when it comes to Russia.

Putin’s weakness and strength

While Moscow’s forces have been advancing slowly in Ukraine, Russia’s economy is in trouble. Putting it on a wartime footing has reduced the availability of labor, accelerated inflation, increased interest rates as well as the government deficit and company debts, and slowed growth. While none of this ensures an imminent crisis, it would not be hard for the US to send the Russian economy into a tailspin. Trump knows this but refuses to do it.

Politically, Putin is still very much in charge and apparently popular with the public. While his ridiculously high polling numbers are likely due in part to fear, there is little sign of resistance to him or the war. He has succeeded in selling the lie that Ukraine started the war he initiated not just in 2022 but also in 2014.

Europe’s vital role

Trump’s loss to Putin in Alaska makes Europe even more important. Some of its major players will be accompanying Zelensky to Washington Monday for his conversation with Trump. UK Prime Minister Starmer, German Chancellor Merz, French President Macron, Italian Prime Minister Meloni, EU Commission President von der Leyen, and NATO Secretary General Rutte are all expected to accompany Zelensky.* They intend this extraordinary showing to bolster Zelensky and his proposal for a ceasefire in place without territorial changes.

In order to rebalance Trump’s lean toward Putin, the Europeans need to make clear that they intend to continue to support the Ukrainian war effort. European weapons, training, and sanctions could tilt the playing field in Zelensky’s direction. They will need to be unequivocal in opposing territorial changes, which would threaten to set a precedent that would put the Russian-occupied territories in Georgia and Moldova at risk. Any concession to Russian territorial ambitions will also call into question NATO’s security guarantees for the Baltics and Poland.

The home front leans toward Ukraine but doesn’t act against Russia

In the US, popular sentiment is turning in Ukraine’s direction. Even before the Alaska meeting, more than half of Americans were not confident in Trump’s handling of the war. Many more think he is favoring Russia too much, not Ukraine. While right-wing media will muffle news of Trump’s loss in Alaska, editorial sentiment in the mainstream media is unequivocal. None believe Trump did well. All believe Putin did.

Sentiment in Congress is also tilting towards Ukraine, though the Graham/Blumenthal sanctions bill still seems stalled. Senator Graham has repeatedly threatened Putin, but the Republican leadership in both Houses won’t want to stiff Putin unless Trump signals his approval. That is unlikely. Graham himself often caves to whatever Trump prefers.

Ending the war

Trump claims he wants to end the war. But he consistently refuses to supply the Ukrainians with the weapons or impose the sanctions that would incentivize Russia to negotiate. The Alaska meeting would convince any recent American president to abandon hope that Russia will negotiate seriously absent those incentives. It is high time that Republicans tell Trump they will impose the needed sanctions and arms sales if he is unwilling to do so.

*I missed Finland’s President Stubb.