Ljudmila Cvetković of RFE/RL asked some questions. I answered. I don’t like the headline on the published Serbian version, but of course neither she nor I wrote it. Here is the original English version, with some subheadings inserted.
Q: How do you view the protests in Serbia? How would you describe what is currently happening in the country?
A: I view the protests as a genuine sign of of popular dissatisfaction with government performance, especially corruption and environmental protection.
Q: When it comes to the international community’s response, officials seem much more reserved than the media. Why is that?
A: No one cares much. Washington and Brussels have other priorities.
Q: Does Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic still enjoy support from the West and EU?
A: Not as much as in the past. He has all too obviously turned to Moscow and Beijing.
Q: How do you interpret Vucic’s rhetoric, as he shifts between labeling the protests as “terrorism” and a “color revolution”?
A: He is desperate and reverting to his autocratic origins.
Q: Vucic is saying that protest are somehow organized from outside. Is there any sense in this accusations, who could potentially be that outside factor given that he has relatively good relations with European Commission, major powers from EU, Trump administration, and also with Russia and China?
Q: The US has dismantled its democracy-promotion institutions. The Europeans are doing little for democracy in the Balkans outside the accession process. Vucic has no one to blame but himself.
Q: How do you read the statement from Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which claims that certain forces in Serbia, under the guise of seeking justice and democracy, are resorting to open aggression, barbarism, and violence?
A: That’s nonsense. There is no aggression or barbarism and little violence other than by the government security forces.
Q: Can Russia influence the direction of events in Serbia, and if so, how?
A: Sure. Moscow will pressure Vucic to crack down and even use its infiltration of the security forces to create as instability.
Q: Do you think that Washington is interested in developments in Serbia?
A: Not much. The forging of a document seems even to have cooled Trump interest in its Belgrade construction project.
Q: Is there a risk that the protests in Serbia are being used as a platform for geopolitical games?
A: Of course geopolitical forces, especially Russia, may try to exploit the situation, but the discontent is real and based on poor government performance.
Q: Is there a risk of further escalation, and how could that affect regional stability?
A: With Vucic and the Russians there is always a risk of escalation, or distraction by another destabilizing incident in Kosovo.
Q: Do the protests in Serbia have the potential to lead to political change, and do you see a possible successor to Vucic?
A: The protesters don’t seem to have generated a clear political alternative. That is a problem if Vucic calls new elections, which the will need to win by a large margin because he cheats, by dominating the media in the pre-electoral period, using patronage to buy votes, and bussing voters to wherever he needs them. Serbia is a semi-autocratic state these days. Winning an election will not be easy for the opposition.
Ludmila asked for some clarifications:
Q: Among citizens who are demanding change, there is a perception of silence—except for a few exceptions—primarily from the EU. Could this lead to a further decline in support for Serbia’s EU membership?
A: Honestly, I don’t know. It seems to me that most of what the demonstrators want is consonant with EU membership.
Q: Still, the West and the EU have neither distanced themselves from Vucic nor expressed support for the civic protests, as was the case in some other European countries. Why is that?
A: Partly they are distracted. Partly they fear the alternatives. Partly they think the protesters will fail. And I suppose some of them are hoping to protect their interests in lithium or other investments as well as ammunition for Ukraine.
Q: Is the EU afraid that by putting pressure on Vucic, it risks pushing him entirely toward Russia—similar to the Georgian government, which cut ties with Brussels after facing criticism and EU support for anti-government protesters in that country?
A: Sure. But there is no weaning Vucic any longer from Moscow and Beijing. He has made his preferences clear.
Q: Is there a danger that the protests will give birth to a more right-wing option and is the EU afraid of that?
A: Yes, I think that is a possibility and the EU is afraid of it.
Q: Why does Vucic persistently insist on the narrative of a “color revolution” and foreign orchestration? Is this rhetoric aimed at his voter base?
A: Yes, and in addition he is parroting Russian talking points. He is a master of propagandist.
Q: Could parallels be drawn with Belarus, in the sense that Alexander Lukashenko gradually intensified repression, culminating after the 2020 presidential elections? Could Vucic reach a point of no return—where a peaceful transfer of power following eventual electoral defeat is no longer possible?
A: Are you sure we are not already at the point of no return?
Q: The protests in Serbia have entered their tenth month. Are they unique in any way and can they be compared to any previous period or country?
A: Serbia has experienced lots of protests: the antibureaucratic revolution, the Zajedno protests, the protests that brought down Milosevic, anti-LGBTQ protests, more recent anti-violence and environmental protests. Each episode is unique and the outcomes quite different. But none have succeeded in putting Serbia on an irreversible path towards liberal democracy and EU membership. I wish the protesters well, but they are up against a formidable opponent and a lot of history.
The Israelis are the victors for now. With authority comes responsibility. They need to make…
Only people can force the P5 leaders to undertake the way out of the catastrophic…
A lot of people could get killed in a peace operation of this difficulty. The…
Trump's America is a place where freedom of speech is in doubt, right-wing violence is…
The Trump Administration's 20-point peace plan for Gaza calls for the unconditional surrender, disarmament and…
They can and sometimes do, provided they organize well and rely on expertise to develop…