At last Trump hits Putin where it hurts

President Trump has levied sanctions on two Russian oil companies and lifted his restrictions on strikes inside Russia with NATO-origin missiles. He has also canceled (or postponed) a proposed meeting with President Putin in Hungary. These are the first indications he has begun to understand what is needed to end the Ukraine war. The European Union has also passed new sanctions, including against additional ships in the “ghost fleet” that transports Russia’s oil.

The Russian economy is in trouble

Both moves will hit a Russian economy that is already listing. Inflation, labor costs, and interests rates are up, growth and government revenue are down. The vital oil sector is already weakened due to Ukrainian missile strikes on Russia’s refineries. Gasoline shortages are rife:

None of this has yet reached crisis proportions for Putin, but you don’t need a weatherman to tell how the wind blows.

No vacillation

Still there is no sign of hesitation in Moscow:

Putin continues to want at the negotiating table what he has been incapable of getting on the battlefield. In exchange for a ceasefire, he wants the parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts that he doesn’t already control. And his ultimate war aims go far beyond that. He wants a Ukraine that is not free to exercise its sovereignty. Belarus would be an acceptable exemplar.

There is no real hesitation in Kyiv either. But President Trump might manage to pressure President Zelensky into a temporary ceasefire along the existing confrontation line. It is always easier to pressure those who depend on your good graces than those who don’t.

No end in sight

Even if a ceasefire is instituted, the Ukraine war will not be over. It is existential for both Ukraine and for Putin. My time in Kyiv in May taught me that Ukrainians will not yield to Russian rule. Putin will not yield to an independent Ukraine. Only a successor of a different sort will do that. There is no end in sight.