Journalists have already said what should be said about Tuesday’s election results. In state-wide elections in Virginia, New Jersey, and Georgia voters shifted definitively to the Democrats. A “democratic socialist” won in New York City’s mayoral contest. The day delivered a massive repudiation of the Trump Administration’s effort to convince Americans that all is well. He of course is blaming everyone but himself.
What are the foreign policy implications, especially in the Balkans, Ukraine, and the Middle East?
The first thing to say is we don’t know. It is a long way from (the US state of) Georgia’s blue shift the Mediterranean and the Black Sea.
Trump had already scheduled a meeting with Syria’s President al-Sharaa on Monday. That normalization will continue. So too will the Administration’s pressure on Israel to back off annexing the West Bank or part of Gaza. Those moves would alienate Trump’s Gulf friends. Efforts to cobble together a Muslim force to stabilize Gaza don’t seem to be going well. But I suppose Trump might double down in a quixotic effort to win his Nobel Peace Prize. The Norwegians are way too smart to ever give him that satisfaction, but he is oblivious.
For the Balkans, it’s hard to imagine much near-term change. Trump just wants Bosnia to take care of itself. That risks putting the country back in the hands of the ethnic nationalists without constraints. He seems uninterested in doing anything more to help Serbia and Kosovo resolve their differences. He already claims to have stopped a nonexistent war between them. Why should he do more? But stricter enforcement of sanctions on Russia is having an unintended effect in Serbia. That’s not a bad thing. Let it continue.
In Ukraine, the election results may make more of a difference. Many Congressional Republicans already leaned further in Ukraine’s direction than the Putin-friendly Trump. Maybe, just maybe, they will now speak more loudly about the need to support Ukraine wholeheartedly. Kyiv needs more long-range missiles, better air defenses, and a hard sanctions squeeze on Moscow. That is the quickest way to end the war.
The election has damaged Trump’s brand, which relies on winning for credibility. As a result, he will redouble his efforts to restrict voting by Democrats at home. That betokens even less support to democracy abroad.
Trump has already surrendered in the trade war to China, even if most Americans don’t understand that’s what he did. We can hope for fewer tariffs, especially if the Supreme Court limits his power to impose taxes without Congressional approval.
The Democrats’ odds of winning at least one house of Congress next November have risen sharply. That would give them power to investigate and issue subpoenas. Trump would then have to go into a more defensive posture. Or face serious consequences.
If they gain both houses, the Democrats would be able to level the playing field. The Congress as presently constituted vastly over-represents Republican voters. Trump thinks if they get both Houses the Democrats will admit Puerto Rico and DC as states.
That is precisely what the Democrats should do. Puerto Rico would get five Congressmen and two Senators. DC would get one Congressman and two Senators. In Puerto Rico, the electoral contest would be competitive. In DC it would not be. But overall, statehood for both would begin to eliminate the inherent bias in the Congress and in the Electoral College.
A Democratic President in 2029 would not be able or willing to restore the status quo ante. But she/he would be able to return America to a more consistent, less idiosyncratic, role abroad. We wouldn’t be threatening Greenland or Panama with invasion or Venezuela with war. The US Navy would not be murdering fishermen in the Gulf of Mexico. Almost any Democrat would be a better partner to allies in Canada and Europe and less corrupt in dealing with the Middle East. We would be consistent in resisting Russian imperialism and Chinese efforts to claim the entire South China Sea and economic domination over East Asia.
But there is a long way from Tuesday’s victories to that happy scenario. Best not to try to hold your breath.
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