Saying “no” to Trump is vital

The 28-point Russian “peace” plan the Americans are flogging is so bad I hesitate to comment on it. Others have demolished it. Trump wants to give Moscow everything it could hope for. Those who hoped Trump had reversed directions on Ukraine were wrong. It is difficult to believe anyone would imagine that President Zelensky would want to accept. The proposal would give Ukrainian territory to Russia, limit Ukraine’s armed forces and choice of allies, and provide empty security assurances. It would also mandate an election Zelensky would be sure to lose. Not to mention that the the American (Russian) plan violates many international laws and norms (see Eerik N. Kross for a full treatment).

What’s his BATNA?

But Zelensky will have to play along. Trump is consistent in few things, but his vindictiveness is guaranteed. A flat “no” will risk retribution. The critical question for Zelensky is this: what is his best alternative to a negotiated agreement? That’s what provides leverage in a negotiation.

Trump has halted US military and economic assistance to Ukraine. The Europeans are making up for the economic gap, but the military part is harder. They don’t produce Patriot missiles. And even for their own products the Europeans have limited production capacity. It could take a long time to get supplies.

More important I suspect is the intelligence piece. Trump is threatening that too. The US has been providing information on Russian troop locations and movements as well as infrastructure inside Russia. Without that, Kyiv’s strikes on oil and gas infrastructure are hindered, if not crippled. I hope the Europeans can step up to Ukraine’s intel needs.

Timing matters

Kyiv’s theory of victory depends heavily on destroying infrastructure to inflict economic pain, which is definitely increasing. The Russian proposal, bad as it is, is a sign that Moscow is hurting. Kyiv needs to hold on until the Russian economy breaks.

BATNA is partly a timing issue. Zelensky has proven he is a master at rope-a-dope. He appears to be accepting a losing proposition but turns it into something acceptable. That’s what he did with Trump’s egregiously exploitative first proposal for a minerals agreement. But rope-a-dope requires time. Trump is trying to deprive Zelensky of the rope-a-dope option by insisting on a reply by next Thursday.

Zelensky may agree to meet with President Putin to discuss the proposition. That has worked repeatedly in the past, because Putin has always backed out. He prefers the war, in which his troops are inching forward. But the current proposal is so close his objectives Putin may agree to meet and pin any failure on Zelensky. If Putin succeeds, he can be confident Trump will punish Ukraine for any perceived failure.

America’s friend gets more pressure

Ukraine wants to be America’s friend, to help shore up its own democracy. But being America’s friend means it is easier for Washington to pressure you into bad outcomes. Zelensky needs to do everything he can with Ukraine’s other friends in Europe and Asia to improve his BATNA. Saying “no” to Trump is vital to Ukraine’s survival.