Serbia is not on the fast track to Europe

Jelena Diković confirmed to me yesterday the Daily DANAS has published this interview:

1. How do you see the student protests over the past year? Can they lead to a change of government in Serbia?

A: Sure they can, but I don’t know that they will. President Vučić is a master at manipulating popular protest: firing a minister here or there, scheduling new elections, stuffing ballot boxes or voters into swing districts, without however putting his own hold on power at serious risk. He is not likely to make the mistake Milosevic made of thinking he would win in a relatively free and fair election. Vučić will be even more careful to ensure the outcome. 

2. Aleksandar Vučić is doing absolutely everything to stay in power. How do you see his moves – from Ćaciland to the detention of those who publicly criticize him?

A: It’s all part of his ensuring zero risk to his own hold on power. 

3. It seems that the EU still does not understand the scale of corruption and crime in Serbia and does not criticize Vučić’s regime as much. In your opinion, why does the EU not side with the students?

A: I don’t think anyone should expect the EU to “side with the students.” The EU should side with its own values, which are antithetical to the growing autocracy in Serbia. Hunger for lithium, dependence on “stability,” and even countering Russian influence are all secondary to restoring the rule of law and democracy in Serbia. That is what European values and interests dictate. 

4. Vučić tried to sell “Generaštab” building to Trump’s son-in-law. He is clearly trying to win Trump over. How do you see the fact that Trump’s son-in-law withdrew from the purchase of the that building?

A: I’m not privy to Kushner’s thinking. But Vučić seems to have offended the Trump Administration in some fashion, which in my view is a good thing. It means Belgrade and Washington can’t, at least for the moment, sell out rule of law and democracy in the way Washington has already done in much of the rest of the world. 

5. What do you think about the creation of a “Serbian world”? Many media outlets write about how Serbia is interfering in the politics of Montenegro, in the politics of Bosnia and Herzegovina through Republika Srpska…

A: The Serbian world is just a modernized form of Greater Serbia. It will mean death and destruction in much of the Balkans today, as it did in the 1990s. It will also end Serbia’s EU hopes. Belgrade is putting the prosperity and security of its own citizens at risk in order to extend its influence into neighboring countries. That is not an ambition that will end well. 

6. How do you see the region in 2026 and Serbia’s role in these relations?

A: I find it hard to expect anything but further stagnation of regional relations. The best hope for progress is in EU accession for Montenegro, Albania, and North Macedonia. Serbia has opted for the slow road. 

7. What do you think marked 2025 when it comes to foreign policy?

A: For me, the key development was the Trump Administration’s decision to side with Russia against Ukraine and to stop speaking out in support of democracy and rule of law worldwide. The US is now governed by a profoundly corrupt Administration that requires payoffs, including into the pockets of the President and his family. None of us have quite come to terms with this dramatic change. 

8. Is the end of the war in Ukraine in sight?

A: No. There may be a ceasefire and even an agreement, but I expect Ukrainians to continue to resist continued Russian occupation and aggression. The only quick end to this war would be a Ukrainian victory in Donbas and Crimea. That isn’t likely with American support missing.