Trump’s imperial ambitions won’t end well

As 2026 begins, we are in well-charted waters. Russia is continuing its 200-year assault on Ukraine. The US is trying to reassert the Monroe Doctrine in the Western Hemisphere, including not only Venezuela but also Greenland. China is threatening Taiwan. These are not spheres of influence but rather imperial ambitions.

Ukraine will not end well for the aggressor

Russia’s aggression is already destroying its economy and society. Growth is slowing, debt is increasing, and non-military production is declining. Casualties are approaching one million.

The regions, while benefitting economically, are also supplying most of the military manpower and suffering most of the casualties. Many are ethnically majority minority, some with independence aspirations.

President Putin knows that. He has reimposed authoritarianism and reduced civil liberties. Many liberal Russians have left. But Trump is indulging Putin’s imperial ambitions, hoping to benefit from the post-war exigencies of the Russian economy.

Nor will Venezuela

The initial American success in capturing Venezuelan President Maduro belies the enormous challenge ahead. While President Trump boasts about bringing their oil to the US, the Venezuelans have not agreed. He is apparently planning to divert embargoed oil tankers and force them to unload in the US. That is piracy.

The Maduro regime is still in place. Its hardliners may agree to allow some oil to go to the US to placate Trump. But they will also cooperate with their Cuban, Iranian, and Russian partners to keep the Maduro regime in power.

Trump isn’t even pretending to want a democratic transition anytime soon. He has backed Vice President Delcy Rodrigues, who Maduro appointed. But that will not satisfy the democratic opposition, led by María Corina Machado.

Sooner or later internal conflict will engulf Venezuela, to the detriment of US interests. The question is how violent the conflict will get. The US, with no troops on the ground, will have little influence on that parameter. A date for elections might help calm things, but Rodrigues isn’t likely to want that.

The Venezuela “success” has emboldened the Trump administration to hope it can take Greenland from Denmark. They aren’t hiding it. Secretary of State Rubio also hopes Venezuela will stop helping the Cuban dictatorship to survive. There, too, a peaceful transition is unlikely. Cuba’s collapse could bring a new flood of immigrants to the US. Never mind the other interventions Trump has threatened against Colombia and Panama.

China may do better with Taiwan, but there is no guarantee

China’s threat to Taiwan could bring even worse consequences for the US. Even without its military resources preoccupied in the Western Hemisphere, the US would have a hard time defending Taiwan from either an embargo or an invasion. President Trump has mostly backed down on his high tariffs for China and denial of chips. President Xi knows he is winning the trade war. It would not be surprising if he were emboldened within the next few years to invade Taiwan.

Success in that effort would certainly cost China a great deal, both in resources and in its relations with neighbors. And pacifying Taiwan, where democracy has taken root, will not be easy. But the analogous effort in Hong Kong is mostly succeeding. Beijing may well feel it knows how to retake territory and govern it while denying the population a voice. And even if it doesn’t invade, it has other options.

Meanwhile

Elsewhere, Trump is failing to get anything beyond a ceasefire in Gaza. No country wants to send peacekeepers until Hamas is disarmed. He has failed to get the Israelis to stop settler attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank. Iranian recalcitrance on nuclear issues has motivated him to threaten renewed bombing. His threats will convince many countries, including Iran, that they are better off with nuclear weapons than without them.

Headlines do not solve problems. But they are all Trump really knows how to make. Solutions are not his thing. He prefers attention, no matter the cost.