Trump is hurting US security in the Arctic

Rasmus Jarlov is chair of the defense committee in the Danish parliament. He writes on Twitter: “I can assure you that your fantasies about a big threat from China and Russia against Greenland are delusional. You are the threat, not them.” All five political parties in the Greenlandic parliament oppose Trump’s effort to make them Americans.

This doesn’t mean there isn’t a threat from China or Russia in the Arctic. Russia has a long border in the Artic. China does not. While it has declared itself a “near Arctic” state, it mostly partners with Russia in the Arctic. That is not reassuring.

Trump is increasing the Arctic threat to the US

The question is how best and economically to protect the US from any Arctic threats. The main approach has long included partnership with American allies like Canada, Norway, Finland, Sweden, Iceland, and of course Denmark.

They all have territory either in the Arctic or close to it. America also relies on cooperation and consultation with them and others (most importantly Russia) in the intergovernmental Arctic Council. But the Trump has weakened America’s relationship with all the Arctic allies. He has targeted Canada as an adversary, undermined the NATO Alliance (Norway, Finland, Iceland, Sweden, and Denmark are all members), and denied Denmark’s long-established sovereignty over Greenland.

Trump has also cancelled most of America’s contribution to preventing global climate change. That will ensure more rapid melting of Arctic ice and increase the mobility of Russian and Chinese ships and submarines in the Arctic. Not smart.

None of this matters

None of this really matters to President Trump. He is not trying to protect the US from real or even imagined threats. He is trying to exercise American dominance throughout the Western Hemisphere and weaken Europe.

If the US manages to somehow get Greenland from Denmark, it will enable nothing more than what the US could do simply by asking Denmark for permission. The Danes appreciate the existing US military presence and want mineral exploitation. They would be prepared to cooperate in expanding both. Trump’s performative hostility is making it harder for Copenhagen to agree with the US, not easier. His goal is to frighten the rest of the world, not to enhance US security.

The real risk

Trump’s performance has (intentionally?) signaled to Beijing and Moscow that they should do something to threaten Greenland. Would anyone be surprised if they now sent warships into Greenland’s territorial waters? That would give Trump’s bluster some justification. They can do it legally, expand their presence in the Arctic, and encourage a strategic split between the US and Europe, including even an end to the NATO Alliance.

From Trump’s perspective, a Russian and Chinese move would achieve key objectives. It could end an Alliance he has never liked. It would confirm his “might makes right” foreign policy. In the subsequent escalation with China and Russia, he would presumably buy Greenland, take it by force, or encourage Greenlanders to declare their independence. That would leave Greenland in need of a protector other than Denmark. Washington wouldn’t allow it any other option.

Trump is uneducated and malicious, not stupid or even cognitively impaired

Reports of Trump’s cognitive impairment are rife. But that is not the problem in the Arctic. He and his cohort know what they are doing. It isn’t three-dimensional chess, but it is purposeful. They intend to get control of Greenland one way or the other to show the world that they can do whatever they want. EU members and other democratic states should get their act together to pre-empt Trump’s next moves in Greenland. He is their adversary, not their friend.

From unsplash.com, Ittoqqortoormiit, Greenland