Yesterday the Trump Administration Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, announced the transition to “Phase 2” of the 20-point Gaza peace plan. Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey have named a 15-member Palestinian National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG). Each has a ministerial portfolio with Ali Shaath, a former Palestinian Authority (PA) deputy transportation minister, in the chair.
This marks the end of Phase 1. That included the October ceasefire and the exchange of hostages and prisoners between Hamas and Israel. The ceasefire has reduced violence, but Israel has killed 400 Palestinians since it went into effect. The body of only one Israeli hostage remains in Gaza.
Humanitarian assistance has greatly improved, due in part to an effective international Civilian Military Coordination Center (CMCC). But access to the needy in a mostly destroyed and rubble-strewn Gaza during a brutal winter is still problematic. Israel has withdrawn to 53% of Gaza that contains 15% of the population. The rest, demarcated by the “yellow line,” is still in Hamas control.
Phase 2 entails governing and eventually rebuilding Gaza. It is a long way off still. Missing pieces include:
These shortcomings are not necessarily fatal, but they are daunting.
The key issue is Hamas disarmament. Israel failed to succeed at that through two years of war. Hamas will give up its governing role, but not its arms. The trouble with that is obvious. Without a countervailing security force, Hamas will still be dominant. NCAG will not be able to govern effectively and independently. That is unacceptable to Israel, which can use its control of the entry of goods and materiel into Gaza to scupper reconstruction.
None of the states that might provide cadres for the ISF is prepared to do the hard work of disarmament. Israel’s opposition to the PA in Gaza complicates this issue. At least some of the thousands of disbanded PA police could be re-activated. Egypt and Jordan are training more PA cadres. But Netanyahu cannot agree to PA police because of opposition from extremists in his government.
Where might the ISF come from? Azerbaijan has declined. Israel rules out Turkey. Egypt refuses. The Gulf monarchies will not want to put their armies at risk. Israel will not withdraw further without a deployed ISF in which it has confidence.
NCAG needs financing. Rebuilding will require hundreds of millions of dollars. The US, which has dismantled its foreign aid program, and Europe, which is hard-pressed by military expenditures, will have to step up. The Gulf will provide some funding, but not without reasserting Palestinian rights to their own state. That will displease Israel.
The United States will need to push hard if the process is to continue. But it has many other pots boiling, including Venezuela, Greenland, Ukraine, Taiwan. Jared Kushner has become the de facto change maker in Gaza, but he has giant investments to manage on behalf of the Gulf monarchs. Europe may be far less willing to help a Trump plan in the Middle East given his behavior on Greenland and Ukraine.
The US is presumably still elaborating its $112 billion Project Sunrise. That would eventually turn Gaza into a hi-tech metropolis. It appears to have supplanted Trump’s original idea of displacing the entire Palestinian population to redevelop the Strip as a Mar-a-Gaza resort. Trump branded no doubt. While not quite as ridiculous, Project Sunrise is unlikely to proceed far beyond the Powerpoint stage.
The Israelis meanwhile appear to be thinking of using their 53% of Gaza to create a territory free of Hamas, “New Gaza.” They hope it will eventually attract Palestinians willing to live under draconian Israeli rule from the current seaside tents.
The Arab countries are still hoping to see a Palestinian state that incorporates all of Gaza and the West Bank. That objective appears as remote as Project Sunrise or New Gaza.
The ceasefire is a definite improvement over war. But the likely long-term outcome is concentration of most Gaza Palestinians in less than half the Strip’s territory. Israeli occupied Gaza, with a smaller percentage, will act as a buffer insulating more or less Hamas-controlled Gaza from the Jewish State.
Humanitarian assistance will feed, shelter, and cloth most of the Palestinians who remain in Gaza. Project Sunrise will evaporate. So too will aspirations for a Palestinian state. A one-state outcome, with dramatically unequal rights, will prevail. Frustration will increase and eventually boil over, again with tragic consequences for both Israelis and Palestinians.
I’ll be glad if I am wrong. Color me skeptical but surprise me, please.
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