Trump is desperate, the Iranians are winning

Today President Trump is threatening to kill a whole civilization. That is prima facie evidence of his intent to commit genocide. That speaks for itself. The man is a self-declared war criminal.

Yesterday, he spent an hour glorying the rescue of an American airman, which I also celebrate. I even understand Trump’s glee. As Charge’ d’affaires at US Embassy Rome in 1993, I visited a search and rescue team in Bari. They were there because the Americans were flying patrols over the “no-fly” zone in the Balkans.

It was impressive. I flew in a C-130 while it refueled a helicopter. I enjoyed a winding ride among Italy’s Apennines, well below the peaks. And I observed a rescue crew rappelling from a helicopter and airlifting a dummy. Technically they call that Helicopter Rope Suspension Technique (HRST), the internet tells me. I understand why the uninitiated would marvel at such feats. And I have no doubt that the President, like me, was really thrilled.

Trump is hiding failure

But the reason he did an hour on TV has nothing to do with the rescuers’ skill.

It was obvious Trump would like some of the bravery of the rescued “second seater” to rub off on him. And he repeatedly implied that this operation, which is standard procedure, was creditable to him and his Department of War.

But the real purpose was to obscure the fact that this operation was ridiculously expensive and a partial failure. He claimed it involved 150 aircraft for days. That costs tens of millions. And it ended in the destruction of two specially equipped C-130s and the helicopters they carried. They alone were worth upwards of $150 million. Many more successes like this one and we’ll reach a limit of the search and rescue capabilities quickly.

The bigger failure

Like the flim-flam man he is, Trump is hiding a big failure. This entire war was a catastrophic mistake. He is now begging the Iranians to negotiate. They’ve rejected his proposal for a 45-day ceasefire. What they want is to continue to control the strait of Hormuz. They already have that and don’t need to negotiate. It will give them ample revenue as well as influence over the Gulf states. Trump has threatened to bomb Iran back to the stone age if they don’t open the strait. That is a threat that reflects his own desperation.

He has already backed off, twice, from threats to expand the war if Tehran does reopen the strait. He has also tried to frighten Iran into submission by gathering in the region somewhere south of 10,000 ground troops. That’s a feint. I trust he won’t deploy them into Iran, as that will precipitate a blood bath for both Iranians and Americans.

He may still back off this evening’s ultimatum. But since it is unclear what he really threatened I suppose he can also claim to have done it. He’s done that with regime change. He moved the goal posts when the Iranians chose a more militant leader, whom he claims is more moderate.

Don’t be fooled

Trump has also tried to sell an Iranian promise not to develop nuclear weapons as a big achievement. Don’t be fooled. It isn’t. The Iranians have done that many times. First when they signed and ratified the Non-proliferation Treaty. Notably later when Obama’s Iran Nuclear Deal came into effect. Its preface includes the commitment:

Iran reaffirms that under no circumstances will Iran ever seek, develop or acquire any nuclear weapons.

The Supreme Leader’s fatwa was also clear on this subject. But all those commitments are reversible, they need verification. That is what Trump abandoned when he left the nuclear deal in 2018.

The Iranians won’t let him off easy

Trump is now desperate to end the war before it causes more damage to the world economy. He can’t credibly claim victory if the strait of Hormuz is still in Iranian hands. Or maybe he’ll even try that.

But the Iranians won’t let him off easy. Trump has military dominance. Tehran has the strait. They win.