The good news is that the ceasefire between the US and Iran is holding. So is the ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Israel and Lebanon less so, but that is not the main American concern.
The bad news is that the US is now stuck in a Middle East conflict it has already lost. The strait of Hormuz is in Tehran’s control. So long as that persists, Washington is the biggest loser.
Instead of active shooting, the US and Iran have now imposed mutual blockades. The US is blocking ships from going to or from Iranian ports worldwide. Iran is blocking most traffic out of the Gulf. The US is seizing ships that try to violate the embargo. Iran is replying in kind and also firing on ships that try to run its blockade.
The result is a mutual standoff. That is far better than a shooting war.
The question now will be how to turn the mutual embargo into something better, before it turns into something worse.
The tit-for-tat seizure of ships should stop. Instead, the US and Iran should start a tit-for-tat de-escalation. Maybe start with five ships per day allowed through the strait for each of the belligerents. Then move up from there.
But to get started in that direction, the US will need to end its worldwide embargo enforcement. Maybe trade that off for an Iranian commitment to end the charging of tolls? Anything that will end that is worth considering, as tolls on the strait of Hormuz will lead to tolls on other straits worldwide. Trump will have done to freedom of navigation what he has already done to free trade: shredded it.
President Trump has unilaterally extended the air war ceasefire without specifying a terminal date. That is unlikely to hold forever. The Americans are spending a fortune on the military deployment. The Iranians are hurting badly for revenue. Unless de-escalation starts, one or the other is likely to try to end the attritional standoff by escalating.
Or it could happen unintentionally, precipitated by a ship collision or a trigger happy commander on either side.
Renewal of open warfare would have devastating consequences for all concerned. Oil, gas, and fertilizer prices would soar again, from already high levels. Already getting them down will at best take months, not weeks. The world economy will crater. American finances and credibility will do likewise.
Trump has already blown five deadlines he posed for Iran. Tehran has faced him down each time, despite the pain of continuing the war and now the embargo. Trump has said for weeks that Iran is begging for a deal:
That isn’t true. The Iranian refusal to come to Islamabad for negotiations this week tells you what you need to know. The Americans want to talk more than the Iranians do.
Trump is stuck in a war he should never have even thought about starting. The prospects for getting out of it are dim. De-escalation is the way to go.
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