Stuck in a long war with nowhere to hide

President Trump’s efforts to get Iran to yield have yielded nothing. Tehran isn’t even willing to talk.

The problem seems to be the agenda. Trump wants to talk about Iran surrendering its highly enriched uranium and agreeing not to enrich more, presumably in exchange for sanctions relief. The Islamic Republic wants to talk about opening the strait of Hormuz to more ships and ending the US embargo. But there is no indication Iran is willing to give up control of the strait and the collection of tolls from ships that cross it.

The implications are not good

If the stalemate continues, the US will need to maintain a substantial force in the Middle East indefinitely to enforce the embargo. It will also need to maintain a credible threat of offensive military action. At more or less $1 billion per day, that is a big financial burden.

World prices for oil, natural gas, and fertilizer will continue to climb. That will hit Asia, Europe, and the global South harder than the US. But Americans are already souring on Trump. He is well under water in the approval sweepstakes. Five or six dollar gasoline is not going to make him more popular. Nor will increasing food prices.

Trump doesn’t care

Already a lame duck, Trump isn’t worrying about his approval ratings or higher prices. He is much more interested in building the White House ballroom and his triumphal arch. He thinks they will do more to glorify his memory than the Iran war.

Nor does Trump show much sign of carrying about the impact on Republican electoral prospects. That’s because he is busy trying to block Democrats from voting. He’ll aim to limit or eliminate mail-in voting and require difficult to produce identification. If all else fails, the Administration will deploy ICE agents to polling places in districts with lots of naturalized citizen voters. That will discourage them from turning out, if not to protect themselves then to protect family members who are not citizens.

The clock is ticking

Untangling the knot with Iran is going to take time. The Iranians will find ways of sneaking their oil out. The tolls will also give them cash. The near total US embargo of Cuba dates from 1962. While talks are now happening, Havana still hasn’t yielded.

In the meanwhile, Trump is politically exposed. May 1 will mark 60 days since the beginning of the war. Congress at that point is supposed to vote approval. Trump, like other presidents, may blow past that requirement. Republicans are not going to want to be forced to vote for a war that American heartily disapprove.

Foreign policy rarely impinges heavily on American domestic politics. Its those consumer prices that really count. The November election is six months off. Even if the strait were to open tomorrow, it could take that long or longer to restore oil, gas, and fertilizer markets to a more normal equilibrium. In the meanwhile, prices will remain elevated. From that, there is nowhere to hide.