Category: Colin Tait
Turkey sandwich: between NATO and Russia
On Wednesday December 4, the Middle East Institute and the Friedrich Ebert Foundation held their 10th Annual Conference on Turkey. The conference brought together policymakers and experts to discuss the challenges Turkey faces domestically and its relations with the Middle East and the West. The conference consisted of three panel discussions. The third panel was entitled Turkey between NATO and Russia. The panelists consisted of Ivan Safranchuk, Associate Research Scholar & Lecturer, MacMillan Center for International and Area Studies, Yale University, Aydin Selcen, Columnist, GazeteDuvar & DuvarEnglish, General (ret.) Joseph Votel, Distinguished Senior Fellow on National Security, MEI, and Jim Zanotti, Specialist, Middle Eastern Affairs, Congressional Research Service. The panel was moderated by Barbara Slavin, Director of Future of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council. Here are the key takeaways from the panel.
- Turkey’s Future in NATO
Recent actions by Turkey in Syria against the Kurds and the purchase of S400 anti-aircraft batteries from Russia exemplify how far formally shared values and interests between Turkey and NATO have diverged. Votel said he is unsure if the West can look at Turkey as a reliable NATO ally anymore. They are working against the coalition’s efforts in Syria and their overall military and political support in NATO has waned in recent years.
As for the purchase of S400s, Votel argued the Turks are looking to free of themselves of dependence on the West for weaponry. Russia wants to sell the air defense system to Turkey in order to drive a wedge between NATO allies. If they are successful, Russia could slowly undermine the Alliance and decrease its capabilities and global reach. Turkey is slowly shifting from a friend to a “frenemy.”
The US has historically led the Alliance too address problems, but Washington is no longer playing that role. NATO needs to discuss the options for future Turkish involvement in the organization. However, Selcen stated that NATO does not have set mechanisms to kick a member out. Additionally, he argued that Turkey’s geographic strategic importance raises its value to remain a part of the organization. NATO will have to pursue other measures.
- Turkish – Russian Relations
The developing relationship between Turkey and Russia is not a recent phenomenon. It started in the 1990s. Anger towards the US is a partial explanation for increased relations between the two countries, but it does not fully explain it.
Safranchuk argued that before the explosion of globalization, Russia and Turkey had to sacrifice part of traditions and culture in order to develop their economies via modernization, which depended on their relationships with Europe. In order to become more powerful, Moscow and Ankara had to become more Western. Otherwise they faced stagnant growth but could maintain their cultural traditions. Now Russia and Turkey can be powerful without Europe and they, along with China, would like to help each other to be successful.
Selcen agreed and stated that Erdogan is emulating Putin’s style of governing by shifting to more authoritarian rule. Despite historical and current grievances, Turkey and Russia continue to grow closer. On the purchase of the S400s, Selcen explained that the Turkish air defense was based on the strength of its air force to deter attacks, but now it has grown weaker and they must pursue a proper air defense system. However, the S400 batteries can only offer certain protective bubbles around Ankara or the presidential palace.
- Turkey’s Objectives in Syria
Turkey is in its consolidation phase in Syria. Votel notes it may not have gotten everything it wanted, but Ankara continues to fortify the territory in Syria it gained during the past several years. There continues to be violence between the Turkish military and Turkish-backed armed groups, and the one hand, and the Kurds on the other, but the expansion of Turkish control in northeast Syria has stopped for now.
Selcen said that Turkey has had a feeling of encirclement since the end of World War I. Ankara is pursuing an assertive foreign policy in Syria to establish its position there, but Selcen thinks there are better and cheaper ways to pursue foreign policy goals and secure border security. There is increasing friction between Russia and Turkey in Syria because of their divergent goals, but Safranchuk stated that Russia is not opposed to Erdogan securing Kurdish areas. Moscow sees the necessity to secure national borders and national security.
- Washington and Ankara
Congress and the White House have differing opinions on Turkey, particularly following the October offensive against Syrian Kurds. Zanotti said that it is too early to tell if Congress has definitively turned away from Turkey. There is still fence sitting by a number of Republican Senators on legislation to impose CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) sanctions in response to the S400 arms deal with Russia. It took Congress 8 months to pass CAATSA against China after they purchased Russian military platforms and it has only been 4 months since Turkey began receiving the defense batteries. The arms deal is set to finalize in March 2020, so the Republican majority Senate may be allowing things to play out as other strategies are attempted to dissuade Ankara from mobilizing the Russian defense system.
Anti-American sentiments have increased throughout Turkey and cut across the entire political spectrum. US-Turkey relations are arguably at their nadir and a desire to push away from the West is evident throughout the population. Selcen stated that traditional diplomacy does not exist between Washington and Ankara anymore. Relations rely on President Trump’s and President Erdogan’s interactions. A phase of “diplomacy without diplomats” has begun. According to Selcen, the Turkish Foreign Ministry has been sidelined in important decision making. He thinks this approach is working for now but is unsure if it will continue to do so in the future.
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Peace Picks | December 9 – December 13
The Problem of Nationalism | December 9, 2019 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM | The Heritage Foundation, Lehrman Auditorium, 214 Massachusetts Ave NE, Washington DC | Register Here
When politicians, academics, and commentators today talk about “nationalism” in the American context, what do they mean? Nationalism has a long history that must be fully understood before it is adopted as a banner around which to rally the American cause. The idea of nationalism, especially in the 20th century, has been associated with causes diametrically opposed to the civic, cultural and creedal patriotism of Americanism. That American creed stressed the bottoms-up sovereignty of the people, not of a top-heavy nation-state. Although surely advocates of a new nationalism for America do not wish to embrace the worst aspects of the historical nationalism, why would they wish to embark on a path that forces Americans to explain the differences? Why would they wish to diminish the universal claims of natural liberty that made America exceptional and different from all other countries?
Please join our panel of experts for a discussion on this important trend in public discourse, how to think about the use of the term “nationalism”, and why it matters.
Vice President, Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute
Senior Fellow, Center for Foreign Policy
Vice President, the Institute for Economic Freedom
Executive Vice President
7th Annual Release of the Global Terrorism Index | December 10, 2019 | 9:30 AM – 12:00 PM | US Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington DC| Register Here
The past year saw a decrease in the overall deaths from terrorism despite new countries experiencing attacks. It saw ISIS lose its territory while far-right terrorism rose substantially—particularly in Europe. Detailed analysis on how terrorism is changing continues to be invaluable for policymakers, practitioners, researchers, and citizens. The seventh annual edition of the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) provides these vital insights, which allow the counterterrorism community to adapt its strategies to reflect current realities in preventing terrorism and promoting peace.
Produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace, the GTI provides a comprehensive summary of key global trends on terrorism from 1970 to the end of 2018, with a focus from 2014 onwards, which captures the formation and decline of ISIS. This critical information assists those looking to understand the complex dynamics of terrorism—especially how it changes over time—and helps governments to design policies and programs that best mitigate violent extremism, as well as dispel myths about terrorism and highlight real global threats.
Join USIP and Institute for Economics and Peace for a discussion on the seventh annual GTI, including a discussion on how data can help shape counterterrorism policy. Speakers will address key findings from the report, explore specific trends in terrorism research, and discuss the impact of this data on the decision-making process for policy, practice, and research. Take part in the conversation on Twitter with #GlobalTerrorismIndex.
Participants
Aleksandra Dier
Gender Coordinator, United Nations Counter-Terrorism Committee Executive Directorate (CTED)
Ryan Greer
Director, Program Assessment and Strategy at the Anti-Defamation League
Erin Miller
Principal Investigator, Global Terrorism Database, National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism
Serge Stroobants
Director of Operations, Europe & MENA, Institute for Economics and Peace
Leanne Erdberg, moderator
Director of Countering Violent Extremism, USIP
A Candle in the Dark: US National Security Strategy for Artificial Intelligence | December 10, 2019 | 3:30 PM | 1030 15th St. NW, 12th Floor, West Tower Elevators, Washington DC | Register Here
There is an intense and high-stakes competition being waged by the United States and its near-peer adversaries across the spectrum of emerging technologies, including AI. As the significance of AI to every facet of US national security increases and the competition with China and Russia intensifies, the need for a whole-of-government approach to leveraging AI and its enabling capabilities is crucial. What are policy options the US can pursue and what are the implications for security strategy? How can the US continue its leadership of the rules-based international system, at a critical time for science and technological development? Can the US compete with China and other adversaries, while also governing the budding AI space?
Join us on December 10, from 3:30 – 5 p.m., at the Atlantic
Council Headquarters, as the Scowcroft Center seeks to answer these pressing
questions and provide an integrated strategy to respond to key global
technological developments. The event will serve as a launch for a new Atlantic
Council Strategy Paper, A Candle in the Dark: US National Security Strategy for
Artificial Intelligence, co-authored by Tate Nurkin and Stephen Rodriguez,
Atlantic Council Fellows.
PONI 2019 Winter Conference | December 11, 2019 | 9:00 AM – 5:00 PM | CSIS Headquarters, 2nd Floor, 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington, DC | Register Here
The PONI Conference Series is unique in its emphasis on featuring rising experts and young professionals in the nuclear field. The Conference Series draws emerging thought leaders from across the nuclear enterprise and policy community and provides them with a visible platform for sharing their new thinking on a range of nuclear issues. The conference will open with a keynote by Rose Gottemoeller, Former Deputy Secretary General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Ms. Gottemoeller served as Deputy Secretary General of NATO from October 2016 to October 2019; where she was the first woman in NATO’s seventy-year history to hold the post. Prior to her position at NATO, she served as the Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security at the U.S. Department of State.
The Hon. Ellen Lord, Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment, will join us for our lunch keynote.
Under Secretary Ellen Lord
Under Secretary Lord is responsible for all matters pertaining to acquisition; developmental testing; contract administration; logistics and material readiness; installations and environment; operational energy; chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons; the acquisition workforce; and the defense industrial base.
We look forward to having both keynotes share their experiences and insight on issues pertaining to the nuclear enterprise.
All comments made at the conference are off-the-record and not for attribution.
Conference Agenda*
*Please note this is not a final and some items are subject to change
8:30 am Conference Check- In
9:00 am Conference Welcome
Rebecca Hersman, Director, Project on Nuclear Issues and Senior Adviser, International Security Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies
9:10 am Opening Keynote
Rose Gottemoeller, Former Deputy Secretary General of NATO
10:00 am Panel 1: Brave New World – Emerging Technologies and Strategic Goals
Moderator: TBD
Artificial Intelligence and Strategic Stability: Implications for Nuclear Security, Deterrence, and Escalation in Future Warfare
Dr. James Johnson, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, The James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Artificial Intelligence and Nuclear Crisis Stability
Marshall Foster, Cadet, United States Air Force Academy
Applying Lessons Learned from Nuclear Material Management to Dual-Use Emerging Technologies
Matthew Keskula, Master’s Candidate, The University of Maryland, College Park
Lindsay Rand, PhD Student, University of Maryland School of Public Policy
Hypersonic Weapons: Tactical Uses and Strategic Goals
Alan Cummings, Master’s Candidate, The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy
11:40 am Lunch
12:00 pm Keynote
Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment, Honorable Ellen Lord, Department of Defense
1:20 pm Panel 2: Seeing is Believing – The Role of Perception on Security Concerns
Moderator: Paige Gasser, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
A Case for Understanding Public Nuclear Knowledge
Jamie Kwong, PhD Candidate, King’s College London
Threats to Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons: Myth or Reality
Dr. Tahir Azad, Postdoctoral Fellow, School of Politics and International Relations, University of Leicester
OSINT Ethics: Application in the Nuclear Landscape
Catherine Haslam, PhD Candidate and Researcher, Centre for Science and Security Studies, King’s College London
An Analysis of Algerian Missile Arsenals: What OSINT Can Tell Us About Missile Proliferation in the Middle East
Agnieszka Krotzer, Research Intern, The James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
3:00 pm Break
3:15 pm Panel 3: Deterrence Theory – Ensuring a Credible Deterrent
Moderator: Rachel Webb, Management Analyst, Headquarters Air Force, Directorate for Strategic Deterrence and Nuclear Integration
India and Pakistan’s Offensive Nuclear Relationship
Seap Bhardwaj, Undergraduate Student, The University of Wisconsin-Madison; Intern, The Office of Congressman Bryan Steil (WI-01)
Fourth Generation Nuclear Weapons; Challenges to Arms Control and Deterrence Paradigms
MAJ Lorin D. Veigas, Nuclear Operations and Counterproliferation Officer, Air Force Institute of Technology
The Opportunity for Conventional Deterrence Against Limited Nuclear Aggression in the 21st Century
Dominic Law, MSci International Relations Graduate, The University of Nottingham, United Kingdom
Securing Economic Ties: Assessing the Extended Nuclear Deterrent
Sooyeon Kang, Pre-doctoral Fellow, Carr Center for Human Rights at Harvard Kennedy School; PhD Candidate, Josef Korbel School of International Studies at University of Denver
5:00 pm Closing Remarks
5:15 pm Reception
6:30pm Conference End
In Defense of Globalism | December 11, 2019 | 1:00 PM – 2:30 PM | AEI, Auditorium, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue NW Washington, DC | Register Here
The international system that has underpinned an unprecedented era of global prosperity is aging. And it is aging at a dangerous moment, when forces on the left and right are increasingly questioning the principles and benefits of globalism. But are nationalism, geopolitical “realism,” and an uncritical veneration of the nation-state worthy substitutes for the existing world order? Will these ideas equip the United States and its allies for the battles ahead? Perhaps a better choice for conservatives is to defend and improve globalism and its institutions, rather than cheering for their demise.
Please join AEI for the release of Dalibor Rohac’s latest book, “In Defense of Globalism” (Rowman & Littlefield, 2019), and a panel discussion of the risks posed by the erosion of the postwar global order.
Join the conversation on social media with @AEI on Twitter and Facebook.
If you are unable to attend, we welcome you to watch the event live on this page. After the event concludes, a full video will be posted within 24 hours.
Agenda
12:45 PM
Registration
1:00 PM
Presentation:
Dalibor Rohac, AEI
1:20 PM
Panel discussion
Panelists:
Anne Applebaum, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
Ash Jain, Atlantic Council
Gabriel Schoenfeld, Niskanen Center
Moderator:
Dalibor Rohac, AEI
2:00 PM
Q&A
2:30 PM
Adjournment
The Chinese Threat to America’s Industrial and High-Tech Future: The Case for a US Industrial Policy | December 12, 2019 | 11:30 AM – 1:30 PM | Hudson Institute, 1201 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W., Suite 400 Washington, DC | Register Here
The United States’ growing competition with China has placed unprecedented demands on the U.S. industrial base and high-technology sectors. As the Communist Party of China seizes greater political and economic power domestically, it is positioning China to outpace the United States in key industrial and technological sectors where the U.S has historically been dominant.
Meanwhile, the U.S. faces a range of new security challenges—from defending key national assets from cyberattacks, to sustaining high-tech superiority or protecting our defense industrial supply chain in the event of armed conflict.
What can U.S. policymakers do to ensure America’s technology sector remains competitive? What role will U.S. relations with China play in determining the outcome?
Join Hudson Institute for a discussion on the future of America’s industrial and technological capabilities.
Speakers
Christopher DeMuth
Distinguished Fellow, Hudson Institute
Arthur Herman
Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Julius Krein
Founder, American Affairs
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Peace Picks | December 2 – December 6
Lessons for Building Creative Economies | December 3, 2019 | 9:00 AM – 10:30 AM | CSIS Headquarters, 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
Many countries around the world have large populations of impoverished people and high unemployment rates. In order to improve conditions in these countries, national governments must come up with effective economic growth strategies, and strengthening the creative industries should be at the forefront of these strategies. Over 100 countries have national plans for their creative economies, but few have made significant progress toward creating the enabling environment for creative industries—film, fashion, music, art, gaming, etc.—to thrive. World trade in creative goods and services grew at an average annual rate of 14 percent between 2002 and 2008, even during the 2008 global financial crisis. The countries with the largest creative economies in 2013 were the United States, China, Britain, Germany, Japan, France, and Brazil. The creative economy is a major driver of job creation, and countries that are implementing policies to boost their creative industries are already reaping the benefits. The longer countries wait, the more difficult it will be to create an enabling environment needed for culture and creative industries.
Overtaking Europe and North America, the Asia-Pacific is now the world’s leading region in CCIs, producing $743 billion in revenue in 2013. Through the launch of the Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy under President Donald Trump’s administration, the United States is rapidly expanding its engagement in Asia. Similarly, Taiwan launched the New Southbound Policy (NSP) in 2016, aiming to expand its development impact among its neighbors. One country that is looking for partners on the creative economy is Indonesia, which has enormous potential for growing both its creative imports and exports.
As part of this public event, CSIS will be releasing a report, Lessons for Building Creative Economies, based on recent case study trips to Taipei, Taiwan and Jakarta, Indonesia. The report will be posted on this webpage on December 3, and hard copies will be available at the public event.
This event is made possible with generous support from the Ministry of Culture of Taiwan.
FEATURING
Chairperson, Taiwan Creative Content Agency (TAICCA)
Senior Deputy Chairman, National Endowment for the Humanities (NEH)
Author, The Creative Wealth of Nations
Managing Director, American Chamber of Commerce in Indonesia
The Afghan People Make Their Voices Heard | December 3, 2019 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM | 2301 Constitution Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20037 | Register Here
The past year has been marked by great uncertainty for the people of Afghanistan. Continued attacks, record-high levels of civilian deaths, and the repeated postponement of presidential elections have taken a toll on Afghan society. Meanwhile, unprecedented talks between the U.S. and Taliban inspired both hope and fear before they broke down in September. With confidence in a peace process still tempered by concerns over an abrupt U.S. withdrawal and the implications for Afghan women, the importance of comprehensive, reliable data on the views of Afghan citizens cannot be overstated.
Join USIP as we host The Asia Foundation for the launch of their 15th Survey of the Afghan People. First commissioned in 2004, the annual survey provides an unmatched barometer of Afghan public opinion over time and serves as a unique resource for policymakers, the international community, the Afghan government, and the broader public in Afghanistan. This year’s survey added new questions to further explore Afghan attitudes toward the peace process, elections, and the prospects for reconciliation.
Based on face-to-face interviews with a nationally representative sample of 17,812 citizens across all 34 Afghan provinces, the results reveal citizens’ views on a wide range of key issues, including security, the economy, corruption, justice, reconciliation with the Taliban, access to media, the role of women, governance, and political participation.
Speakers
Nancy Lindborg, opening remarks
President and CEO, U.S. Institute of Peace
David D. Arnold, opening remarks
President and Chief Executive Officer, The Asia Foundation
Abdullah Ahmadzai
Country Director, Afghanistan, The Asia Foundation
Tabasum Akseer
Director of Policy and Research in Afghanistan, The Asia Foundation
Amb. Daniel Feldman
Asia Foundation Trustee, Senior of Counsel, Covington &
Burling; Former U.S Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan
Scott Worden, moderator
Director, Afghanistan and Central Asia Programs, U.S Institute of Peace
The Seas as the Next Frontier: Is Maritime Security in the Gulf a Flashpoint or Starting Point? | December 4, 2019 | 12:30 PM – 2:00 PM | 1050 Connecticut Ave NW, Suite 1060, Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
On December 4, AGSIW hosts a panel discussion on the issue of maritime security in the Gulf.
The recent attacks on oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz were a potent reminder of the need for the Gulf Arab countries as well as their neighbors and international partners to address an issue of fundamental importance to the region: maritime security.
Until recently, most Gulf Arab countries paid scant attention to maritime security, despite its centrality to their economies. However, the situation has changed considerably in the last decade, as a result of a realization that their lack of military readiness in the Gulf waters and Indian Ocean is a substantial vulnerability. Regional ambitions and a desire to participate in international security initiatives also have served as catalysts for Gulf Arab states’ action.
Yet, even as tensions in and around the Gulf have grown so has a perception that maritime security may provide a sorely needed starting point for discussions between Gulf Arab states and Iran. How do recent events in the Gulf of Oman and elsewhere around the Arabian Peninsula figure into the broader context of regional maritime security? Do the Gulf Arab states share the same threat perceptions and agree on the remedies? What role can international partners play in helping to ensure freedom of navigation in these waterways, which are crucial to global commerce?
Speakers
Senior Fellow, International Institute for Strategic Studies
Consultant and Policy Advisor
Senior Policy Analyst, RAND Corporation
Moderator
Visiting Scholar
The Middle East Institute’s 10th Annual Turkey Conference | December 4, 2019 | 9:00 AM – 4:00 PM | National Press Club, 529 14th Street NW, Washington, DC 20045 | Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) and the Friedrich Ebert Foundation (FES) are pleased to host the 10th Annual Conference on Turkey. The conference will bring together policymakers and experts to discuss the challenges Turkey faces domestically and its relations with the Middle East and the West.
Agenda:
9:00am-9:15am | Welcome Remarks
Knut Dethlefsen
Representative to the U.S. and Canada, FES
Gönül Tol
Director, Center for Turkish Studies, MEI
9:15am-10:45am | Panel I: Turkey after the Istanbul
elections
Ruşen Çakır
Journalist, Medyascope
Aykan Erdemir
Senior fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Fehmi Koru
Freelance journalist
Giran Özcan
Washington representative, Peoples’ Democratic Party
Gönül Tol (moderator)
Director, Center for Turkish Studies, MEI
10:45am-11:00am | Coffee Break
11:00am-11:45am | Keynote Remarks & Audience Q&A
Hon. Nils Schmid, MP
Member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, German Bundestag
Congressman Brendan F. Boyle
Member of the Foreign Affairs Committee, House of Representatives, U.S.
Congress
Ambassador (ret.) Gerald Feierstein (moderator)
Senior Vice President, MEI
12:00pm-1:30pm | Panel II: Art in the time of
authoritarianism
Kenan Behzat Sharpe
Founder & Co-Editor, Blind Field: A Journal of Cultural Inquiry
Ayşe Öncü
Professor, Department of Sociology, Sabancı University
Sarp Palaur
Director & Musician, Susamam
Lisel Hintz (moderator)
Assistant professor of international relations, Johns Hopkins SAIS
1:30pm-2:30pm | Lunch Buffet
2:30pm-4:00pm | Panel III: Turkey between NATO and Russia
Ivan Safranchuk
Associate Research Scholar & Lecturer, MacMillan Center for International
and Area Studies, Yale University
Aydın Selcen
Columnist, GazeteDuvar & DuvarEnglish
General (ret.) Joseph Votel
Distinguished Senior Fellow on National Security, MEI
Jim Zanotti
Specialist, Middle Eastern Affairs, Congressional Research Service
Barbara Slavin (moderator)
Director of Future of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council
4:00pm | Close
US Strategic Interests in Ukraine | December 4, 2019 | 11:30 AM | Capitol Visitor Center, First St NE, Washington, DC 20515, Congressional Meeting Room North (CVC) | Register Here
Perhaps more than ever before, Ukraine dominates the news and the domestic political conversation. Despite the ongoing debate, Russia continues to wage an undeclared war in Ukraine, which has led to the death of 13,000 Ukrainians. Additionally, Ukraine’s newly elected president and parliament face considerable challenges and opportunities as they pursue critical reforms and a just peace in eastern Ukraine and Crimea. This bipartisan event is meant to reaffirm US support for Ukraine, as well as to propose key policy recommendations for US lawmakers.
Speakers
Welcoming Remarks
The Hon. Marcy Kaptur
US Representative for Ohio’s 9th Congressional District
The Hon. Brian Fitzpatrick
US Representative for Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District
The Hon. Andy Harris
US Representative for Maryland’s 1st Congressional District
Special Remarks
The Hon. Chris Murphy
US Senator for Connecticut
Panel: Why does Ukraine matter to the United States?
Leon Aron
Resident Scholar; Director, Russian Studies
American Enterprise Institute
Ilan Berman
Senior Vice President
American Foreign Policy Council
Heather Conley
Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic; Director, Europe
Program
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Ambassador John
Herbst
Director, Eurasia Center
Atlantic Council
Dr. Donald N. Jensen
Editor in Chief, Senior Fellow
Center for European Policy Analysis
Moderated by
Myroslava
Gongadze
Chief
Ukrainian Service, Voice of America
Special Remarks
The Hon. Ron Johnson
US Senator for Wisconsin
Panel: What can be done to ensure Ukraine succeeds?
Luke Coffey
Director, Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy, Kathryn and
Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy
The Heritage Foundation
Glen Howard
President
The Jamestown Foundation
Jonathan Katz
Senior Fellow
The German Marshall Fund of the United States
Dr. Alina
Polyakova
Director, Project on Global Democracy and Emerging Technologies
The Brookings Institution
Dr. Paul Stronski
Senior Fellow, Russia and Eurasia Program
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Moderated by
Melinda
Haring
Deputy Director, Eurasia Center
Atlantic Council
Global Partnerships to Combat Cybercrime & the Challenge of Going Dark | December 5, 2019 | 2:30 PM – 4:00 PM | CSIS Headquarters, 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
Digital technologies are creating new challenges for law enforcement agencies around the world. Cybercrime is proliferating due to the growing sophistication of online criminal networks and the difficulties of trans-national enforcement. Investigations of traditional crimes are also becoming more difficult as encryption, ephemerality, and other technical measures create obstacles for accessing digital evidence. This event will examine how global cooperation can help to address these issues in a way that ensures a balance between the protection of civil liberties and the needs of the law enforcement community.
Agenda
2:15 pm – Registration
2:30 pm – Keynote
Ferdinand Grapperhaus, Dutch Minister of Justice and Security
2:50 pm – Moderated Panel Discussion
Theo van der Plas, Chief Superintendent, Deputy Chief
Constable, National Program Director Cybercrime and Digitization
Jennifer Daskal, Professor and Faculty Director of the Tech, Law, Security
Program at American University Washington College of Law
Matthew Noyes, Director of Cyber Policy and Strategy at the U.S. Secret
Service
3:20 pm – Audience Q&A
3:50 pm – Closing Thoughts
4:00 pm – END
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US responsibilities in Syrian Kurdistan
On November 20, 2019, the Washington Kurdish Institute held an event at the Russell Senate Office entitled, Repairing the Damage: The future of US relations with our Syrian Kurdish and the fight against ISIS. Following the Turkish offensive into northeastern Syria, Operation Peace Spring, nearly 300,000 Syrians have been displaced and more than 700 have been killed. The anti-ISIS campaign has been put at risk, including the potential escape of ISIS prisoners held in Syrian Democratic Force camps. The event proceeded with three keynote speeches from Senator Chris Von Hollen, Senator Marsha Blackburn, and Senator Mark Warner. All three advocated for bipartisan support for the Syrian Kurds, condemned the actions of Turkey, and warned the audience about the reemergence of ISIS.
Following the remarks from the senators, a panel discussion began. The three panelists were Ilham Ahmed, President of the Syrian Democratic Council, Amy Austin Holmes, a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center and Visiting Professor at Harvard University, and Aykan Erdemir, former Turkish parliament member and currently a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. The panel was moderated by Najmaldin Karim, President of the Washington Kurdish Institute.
Ahmed started the discussion by advocating that the governance structure that the Kurds established was a model for Syria that included gender equality, representation for the diverse ethnic groups in SDF controlled areas, and an example of democracy that has been unfamiliar in Syria. She condemned Turkey and the Turkish backed jihadist groups that have violated human rights in the land they have occupied. Ahmed called for the cessation of the slaughter of Kurds and Syrians in general, and to allow for the Kurdish democratic project to continue. She recommended that the Turkish backed jihadist groups should be sanctioned and listed as official terrorist organizations.
Amir continued that discussion by stating that there are two sides of the story in Turkey. First, is the official one: 79% of Turks polled support Operation Peace Spring They regard the SDF, YPG, and PKK as terrorists and national security threats to Turkey. Another view holds that Operation Peace Spring is an offensive maneuver against the Kurds. It is Erdogan’s war as much as it is Turkey’s war. Similar to an article written by Dr. Gonul Tol, Director of the Middle East Institute’s Center for Turkish Studies, Amir argued that President Erdogan has faced domestic political turmoil and used the October invasion to rally the population against a common threat, the Kurdish population along the Turkey-Syria border.
A younger Erdogan, Amir reminded, started talks with the PKK, transformed Turkish attitudes towards the Iraqi Kurdish Regional Government, and established a joint Turkish-YPG operation to protect the grave of Suleyman Shah, an important cultural site in Syria under threat from ISIS, in 2015. Amir claimed that the present-day Erdogan would jail officials for attempting to pursue any similar initiatives today.
Holmes reiterated the condemnation of human rights violations committed by Turkey and expressed her concern for the risk of ethnic cleansing in Tel Abyad and Ras al-Ayn like what was seen in Afrin. She recommended that the US establish a team on the ground monitoring abuses and war crimes as well as a fact-finding commission analyzing possible ties between the Turkish government and ISIS. She also called for international journalists and academics to be allowed to enter Afrin and report what they observe. Holmes stressed that a mechanism for border security must be established, but it cannot simply give Turkey strips of land. The Kurds represent 1/3 of the Syrian population and the US must pressure the UN to allow them to be included in the Constitutional Committee discussions in Geneva.
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Iraqi Kurdistan faces crisis in Iraq and Syria
The Kurdish Regional Government of Iraq (KRG) named Safeen Dizayee as the new head of the KRG Department of Foreign in Relations in July 2019. Prior to becoming Iraqi Kurdistan’s top diplomat, he served as chief of staff to the prime minister, senior KRG spokesperson, and minister of education, among other posts. On November 20, 2019, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP) hosted Minister Dizayee for a discussion moderated by Dr. Bilal Wahab, the Nathan and Esther K. Wagner fellow at WINEP.
Dizayee discussed the ongoing protests and instability reverberating throughout Iraq. Civil unrest has not been uncommon in post-Saddam Iraq. The current widespread protests are a culmination of 16 years of corruption and other problems within the government. From 1999 to 2003, Iraqi Kurdistan was independent of the Ba’athist government, but voluntarily joined the new democratic-federalist government after Saddam Hussein was overthrown. The Kurdish Regional Government of Iraq (KRG) is now an autonomous region and is supporting and working with Baghdad to address the grievances of the protesters.
Iraq needs to be changes in the patronage system, reforms to lower corruption, improvements to the provision of services, but the protests must remain peaceful to reach these goals in a progressive and stable way. As for the potential role of the US, the foreign minister noted that the US has no leverage in the protests and the next head of government will likely be less friendly to the West.
ISIS has regrouped and its militants are active almost daily in Iraq. Dizayee discussed how sleeper cells in many villages have emerged and gained support of locals either voluntarily or by threatening communities. They are mainly active in empty, ungoverned spaces near the Syrian-Iraqi border that the Iraqi government did not move into after the official fall of the Caliphate. ISIS has filled that vacuum and operates primarily at night, when their people are less prone to strikes.
Since the attempted independence referendum in 2017, the KRG has addressed structural flaws between the two Kurdish political parties as well as relations with the Iraqi, Iranian, and Turkish governments. Dizayee discussed how political parties have their own peshmerga forces. The KRG is doing the groundwork now to address the differences between the parties, but the parties and their peshmergas are all loyal to Kurdistan despite disagreements on governance.
Dizayee talked in the end about Syrian Kurdistan (Rojava) and the recent Turkish invasion. The Kurds in Syria have faced human rights violations for many decades and did not have the opportunity to influence the country until the beginning of the civil war in 2011. The KRG supported the unification of Kurdish political parties in Syria, but Dizayee said that the PYD ultimately has governed Rojava alone. Looking through a Turkish lens, he discussed how the PKK attempting to impose their agenda in Syria scared Ankara and encouraged the Turks to pursue offensive campaigns to protect Turkish national security.
However, extremist groups spearheaded the October incursion into northeastern Syria and acted in heinous ways against the population. Hundreds of thousands of people were displaced and most of them will try to find refuge in KRG-controlled Iraq. 16,000 people have already fled to the Iraqi border, adding to the 250,000 refugees who began arriving in 2011.
On the US decision to withdraw troops from northeastern Syria, Dizayee said the YPG was used as a security company to defeat ISIS, and now that the job is perceived to be done, he is not surprised that support was withdrawn. He nevertheless appreciates the support of the US government overall to the Kurdish people. The lack of clear policy from the current administration will not ruin that relationship in the long run.
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Peace Picks | November 18 – November 22
Responding to Armed Groups in Venezuela | November 18, 2019 | 9:30 AM – 11:15 AM | CSIS Headquarters, 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
Please join CSIS’ Future of Venezuela Initiative for a discussion on how the presence of illegal armed groups affects the transition process in Venezuela, and what the United States, the international community, and other pertinent actors within Latin America can do to mitigate the effect of these groups.
The presence of armed groups in Venezuela significantly affects how policymakers consider addressing the Venezuelan political and humanitarian crisis. The Maduro regime seeks to benefit from Venezuela’s status as a hub for transnational crime and illicit activities, causing policymakers to doubt what the best approach to address the crisis would be. Illegal armed groups finding haven in Venezuela not only adds new threats to Venezuela’s internal security, but also threatens Colombia’s security and the region writ-large. Illegal armed groups in Venezuela include the National Liberation Army (ELN), remnants of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), colectivos, garimpeiros, and other residual organized armed groups (GAO) and criminal gangs.
The event will feature keynote remarks from Colombia’s High Commissioner for Peace, Miguel Ceballos, and from Paul Ahern, the Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Treasury Department. The remarks will be followed by a panel with former National Security Advisers to the White House and the former Vice President of Panama, and will be moderated by CSIS’ Moises Rendon.
FEATURING
Fernando Cutz
Senior Associate, The Cohen Group; Former National Security Council
Isabel de Saint Malo de Alvarado
Former Vice President and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Government of Panama
Dan Fisk
Chief Operations Officer, International Republican Institute; Former National Security Council
Juan Cruz
Senior Adviser, CSIS Americas Program; Former National Security Council
Miguel Ceballos
High Commissioner for Peace, Government of Colombia
Paul Ahern
Principal Deputy
Assistant Secretary, U.S. Treasury Department
CSIS Debate Series: Does the U.S. Need a Foreign Policy for sub-Saharan Africa? | November 20, 2019 | 9:00 AM – 11:30 AM | CSIS Headquarters, Floor 2, 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
Does
democracy foster economic growth? Does great power competition hurt or empower
the continent? Does the U.S. even need a foreign policy for sub-Saharan Africa?
Since the 1990s, there has been a consensus about U.S. priorities and policies
toward the region. While continuity has its merits, it also acts as a brake on
creativity, innovation, and new thinking about U.S. interests in sub-Saharan
Africa. The CSIS Africa Debate Series offers an opportunity to question and
refine policy objectives to meet a changing political landscape.
The CSIS Africa Program with the support of the Open Society Foundations is
hosting a series of debates in Washington, D.C. and other U.S. cities to
challenge old paradigms and identify new approaches to tackle pressing
U.S.-Africa policy issues. For its inaugural debate on November 20, 2019 from
9:00 a.m. to 11:30 a.m., CSIS will pose the question, “Does the United States
need a foreign policy in sub-Saharan Africa?” to former U.S. government
officials and African scholars. Experts will face off to identify the advantages
and disadvantages of U.S. engagement in Africa and to open a dialogue on a new
framework for U.S. foreign policy toward the region. Audience members will vote
key debate points as well as participate in a Question & Answer session.
Save the date, register, and subscribe to
the CSIS Africa Program distribution list to receive updates on the Debate
Series.
FEATURING
Africa Program Director, Wilson Center
Senior Managing Legal Officer, Open Society Justice Initiative
Founding
Partner, Total Impact Capital (TOTAL)
The State of Human Rights in Africa | November 20, 2019 | 1:00 PM – 2:30 PM | Brookings Institution, Saul/Zilkha Room 1775, Massachusetts Avenue N.W. Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
On a continent as vast and diverse as Africa, there are no simple narratives on freedom and human rights. Like many places in the world, there are hopeful trends and success stories, but also worrisome trends and signs of backsliding. While sincere efforts to enshrine human rights in law are found in most of Africa’s 54 countries, the actual protection of those rights often falls victim to corruption or to violent non-state actors with other designs in mind. But there are reasons for optimism as well as caution — and ample data to show observers where the trends are going. For instance, according to Freedom House, sub-Saharan Africa has about 10 “free” countries (most of them small), about 20 “partly free,” and about 20 more “not free” nations. Recent trends in The Gambia and Angola give rise to optimism, while repressive actions in Tanzania and Uganda suggest they have a ways to go.
On November 20, the Africa Security Initiative at the Brookings Institution will host a panel of experts on human rights trends in Africa. Questions will follow from the audience.
Speakers:
Moderator
Michael E. O’Hanlon
Senior Fellow – Foreign Policy
Director of Research – Foreign Policy
The Sydney Stein, Jr. Chair
Panelists
Mausi Segun
Executive Director, Africa – Human Rights Watch
Tiseke Kasambala
Chief of Party, Advancing Rights in Southern Africa Program – Freedom House
Jon Temin
Director,
Africa Program – Freedom House
Repairing the Damage: The future of U.S. relations with our Syrian Kurdish and the fight against ISIS | November 20, 2019 | 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM | Russell Senate Office, 2 Constitution Ave NE, Room 385, Washington, DC 20002 | Register Here
Turkey’s recent invasion of the predominantly Kurdish region (Rojava) in northeast Syria has upended the successful four year joint operation between the United States and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) against ISIS in Syria and left the Syrian Kurds and their partners at the mercy of Putin and Assad to seek protection against advancing Turkish forces.
Nearly 300,000 Kurds, Christians, and Arabs have been displaced and more than 700 people have been killed in the conflict which has also placed the anti-ISIS campaign at risk, including the potential escape of 1000s of ISIS prisoners in SDF-managed camps in eastern Syria. Alongside the Turkish military, radical jihadist fighters backed by Turkey have committed documented war crimes including the brutal murder of female Syrian Kurdish politician, Hevrin Khalaf.
Despite the U.S.-Turkish ceasefire agreement, Turkey and its proxies continue to bombard and invade areas outside the zone and Turkish President Erdogan has continued to reiterate his intention to ‘cleanse’ the area of local inhabitants. Confusion exists over the implications of the recent US decision to redeploy a small number of US forces back into eastern Syria to protect oil resources there.
The panel discussion will address the future relationship between the US and its Syrian Kurdish allies and the way forward to stop Turkey’s military operation, remove Turkish-backed jihadi proxies from the area and prevent the re-emergence of ISIS.
Opening Remarks — Honorable Senator Chris Van Hollen
Panel Discussion
Moderator: Dr. Najmaldin Karim, President of the Washington Kurdish Institute
Ms. Ilham Ahmed, President of the Syrian Democratic Council
Dr. Amy Austin Holmes, Woodrow Wilson International Center &Visiting Professor at Harvard University
Dr. Aykan Erdemir, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Future Geopolitical Realities and Expectations in Syria | November 21, 2019 | 11:00 AM – 12:30 PM | National Press Club, 529 14th St NW, Washington, DC 20045 | Register Here
On November
21st, the Turkish Heritage Organization will host President of the Independent
Syrian Kurdish Association Abdulaziz Tammo, Council of United Syrians and
Americans Executive Director Hamdi Rifai, and TRT World Middle East
Correspondent Sarah Firth for a discussion on “Future
Geopolitical Realities and Expectations in Syria”.
The Role of Women in Syria’s Future | November 21, 2019 | 12:30 PM – 2:00 PM | Middle East Institute, 1763 N Street NW Washington, DC 20036 | Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) is pleased to host a public event featuring a panel of influential Syrian women, which will focus on the important role of women within Syrian civil society and in local and international initiatives aimed at shaping a better future for Syria. The panel will focus particularly on the contributions made by women in Syria’s ongoing political processes, including the nascent Geneva negotiation track, as well as in the recently UN-convened Constitutional Committee.
Please join us for this timely discussion on the role of women at home and abroad, amid conflict and a continuing search for peace and justice in Syria.
Speakers
Sarah Hunaidi
Writer and human rights activist; member of the Syrian Women’s Political Movement
Rafif Jouejati
Co-founder and Director, FREE-Syria
Jomana Qaddour
Lawyer and analyst; co-founder, Syria Relief & Development
Vivian Salama
Journalist, The Wall Street Journal
Energizing India: Conversations on Energy Access and Security | November 22, 2019 | 9:00 AM – 12:00 PM | 1030 15th St NW, 12th Floor, Washington, DC | Register Here
India faces various accessibility challenges in rural and urban regions. Smart grid and off-grid solutions subsidized by the Indian government have made the country one of the fastest electrifying in the world. While the Indian government claims 100 percent electrification, and thus significant transmission and distribution infrastructure, energy experts raise questions about the impact of these government-led efforts. As electrification grows among households, new solutions from both public and private sector entities must ensure long-term energy access and security.
Please join the Atlantic Council Global Energy Center and South Asia Center on Friday, November 22, 2019 from 9:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. for a conversation with Shreerupa Mitra, Executive Director of The Energy Forum, about her new book, “Energizing India: Fuelling a Billion Lives.” followed by two expert panels on energy access and security in India.
Book Discussion: Energizing India: Fuelling a Billion Lives
Shreerupa Mitra
Executive
Director
The Energy Forum
Moderated by
Randolph Bell
Director, Global Energy CenterAtlantic Council
Panel I: Ensuring Energy Access
Dr. Johannes Urpelainen
Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Professor of Energy,
Resources and Environment; Director, Energy, Resources and Environment Program,
School of Advanced International Studies
Johns Hopkins University
Moderated by
Bina Hussein
Associate Director, Global Energy Center
Atlantic Council
Panel II: Ensuring Energy Security
Amos Hochstein
Former Special Envoy and Coordinator for International
Energy Affairs
US Department of State
Shreerupa Mitra
Executive Director
The Energy Forum
Moderated by
Dr. Irfan Noorruddin
Director, South Asia Center
Atlantic Council
*More speakers to be announced soon*
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