Category: Daniel Serwer
Blatant falsehoods parading as diplomacy
Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland tweeted today:
Pleased to speak with Serbian President @avucic to thank Serbia for its support for Ukraine, ongoing efforts to address the humanitarian crisis, and commitment to regional stability. We welcome Serbia’s good relations with neighbors & continued progress along its European path.
It would be hard to write two sentences with more misconceptions.
Other than the volunteers joining pro-Russian forces there, Serbia has offered Ukraine little. Belgrade voted for the General Assembly resolution denouncing Russian aggression. Serbia has also said it will accept Ukrainian refugees, but how many and through what channels is unclear. If it were to accept them in the same proportion as its adveraries in Kosovo, the number would be upwards of 15,000. Belgrade has also promised medical assistance, but when, where, and how is unclear.
What is clear is that Serbia has refused to join international sanctions against Russia, despite its commitment to align its foreign policy with the EU. This is nothing new. At last count, the EU viewed Serbia as 56% aligned, far less than its neighbors. Albania and Montenegro were fully aligned, with North Macedonia at 96% and Bosnia and Herzegovina at 70%.
Serbia is a primary factor in regional instability, not stability. Its leadership is calling for a “Serbian world,” analogous to Russian President Putin’s calls for a “Russian world.” That is one of the goals that precipitated the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Serbia’s Montenegrin, Macedonian, and Kosovo neighbors were already nervous about Belgrade’s massive re-armament before the Ukraine war. They now need to worry about whether Serbian President Vucic will, like Putin, claim genocide against co-nationals and invade one or more of the neighbors. Serbia’s relations with its neighbors, in whose internal politics it interferes, are notably lousy, not good.
Serbia is basically stalled on its EU accession path, for good reasons. While it implements the technical requirements, it lacks a free press and independent judiciary as well as a serious effort at transitional justice. Petrit Selimi (@Petrit), a Serbian-speaking Kosovar, tweets daily on the Serbian press. Today’s delicacies:
Here’s today’s Vesti, which has a front page big focus on “USA bringing plague to Europe”. In small letters you can read about how China and Russia have found proof USA and #Ukraine have developed many diseases to use against Russians in the war. Quite sick.
(2) oldest newspaper in #Serbia, owned now by governments is asking on front page “Who is collecting DNA of Russians”. It’s another conspiracy theory peddled by #Moscow & #Belgrade that Ukrainians & Americans have collected Russian DNA for special biological warfare. Silly stuff.
(3) Another known tabloid, famous for warmongering, hateful propaganda since 1980s, reports proudly “#Russia building its own world in East.” This is done to counter “Washington threats” and is “new global architecture”. A sinister, murderous version of @MacaesBruno’s Euroasia.
(4) the tragedy in Serbian media scene is that former liberal media have all now become affiliates or serventa of #Serbia government. B92 daily starts with Russian version of the war events in #Ukraine. Today they report Moscow lies on how “Ukraine planned for war in March”.
To be fair, one still finds pockets of smaller newspapers, regional web portals which are independent & try to counter official pro-Russian propaganda in #Serbia. NGOs protested against war in #Ukraine. However the dominant media are beholden to forces supporting death & mayhem.
@Petrit
I’m well aware that diplomats sometimes feel they have to say nice things about foreign leaders in order to bring them around. But this is a case of blatant falsehoods parading as diplomacy. #fail
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Stevenson’s army, March 9
I like a good kielbasa, but look at this:
– VP Harris goes to Poland today, just as the snafu over fighters to Ukraine emerges.
– USG was surprised and unhappy over Poland’s announcement.
– Poland now agrees this has to be a unanimous NATO decision.
– Russian propaganda at home assessed by NYT and by FP.
– Heads of IC give open testimony to House Intelligence Committee. And here’s the DNI’s unclassified annual report.
– Meanwhile, deal reached on spending bills–$1.5 trillion, including $13.6 billion for Ukraine. But also includes short term CR until next Tuesday to allow time for Senate action.
– Interesting analyses: Why Russia is bad at urban warfare, lessons from USMC.
– What Taiwan should learn from Ukraine.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, March 8
– Operational problems may prevent MiGs to Ukraine.
– Venezuela maybe can’t produce much more oil.
– How China is censoring war news
– Preparations for insurgency.
– Why Ukraine’s Internet is still up.
Mission creep: 27 national security expertspropose a “limited No-Fly Zone” to protect refugees. Signers include former Amb Taylor, Prof. Edelman, & former Amb Vershbow. [No, no, no; must avoid nuclear war.]
Eliot Cohen has his suggestions.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, March 7
– NYT says US has approached Venezuela about buying oil.
– WaPO says US is planning in case there is a Ukrainian govt in exile.
– WSJ says Russians are recruiting Syrians for Ukraine war.
– K St Lobbyists for Russia out of luck.
– Politico has more on the interagency fight over trade policy
– A student told me of Treasury Oct 2021 report on sanctions policy.
– Amy Zegart analyzes effects of Ukraine info ops.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Russian victory is a nightmare for Moscow
The Ukrainians have demonstrated incredible determination and heroism in resisting the Russian invasion. But they are still losing territory. What happens if they are defeated? Say, for example, that Kyiv falls. What then?
Moscow’s intentions are clear
Moscow has made no secret of its intention to replace President Zelensky and his government. That they can do if the Russian army takes the capital, no matter what happens to Zelensky. They could even name someone in advance.
If Zelensky were to escape, either to Lviv in western Ukraine or abroad, he would no doubt try to run a government in exile. Belarus’ opposition leader, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, is trying something comparable, though she was never in power before fleeing. Juan Guaido’s effort to establish an alternative government inside Venezuela has failed.
If Zelensky is captured or killed, the situation becomes more fraught. The immediate constitutional successor is the Speaker of Parliament, Zelensky ally Ruslan Stefanchuk. Beyond that, the situation appears ambiguous.
The Russians could settle for partition
The Russians have so far shown little military interest in taking Lviv. They are already having difficulty in the east. Kharkiv, a city with a Russian-speaking majority, is proving recalcitrant. Western Ukraine has far fewer Russian speakers and a more positive attitude towards the EU and NATO. President Putin has seemed insatiable so far, but Ukrainian resistance may force him to accept partition of Ukraine somewhere west of Kyiv and north of Odesa.
That however isn’t an attractive proposition from Putin’s perspective. A successful democratic state on his borders is precisely what he is trying to prevent. If he is forced to accept partition, he will do everything he can to make life hard for the “Lviv republic.”
Insurgency is likely
If the Russians are successful in occupying all or part of Ukraine, an insurgency seems likely. Much of the population is armed. Demoralization and lack of will to fight appear rife among the Russians. Ukrainian civilians are often defying them openly in nonviolent confrontations. Parts of the Ukrainian army will no doubt be willing to fight a continuing guerilla war against Russian occupation.
The Russian response will be draconian. Putin will try to do what he did in the second Chechnya war. Then he levelled Grozny, killed with abandon, and installed and funded a puppet government that has executed his will.
But Ukraine is not Chechnya
But there is a big difference in Ukraine, which is a country of 44 million people (before 1 million and more left as war refugees). Chechnya had fewer than 1.5 million. That is a gigantic difference. Russia will need upwards of 500,000 troops to maintain an occupation of Ukraine. It is using only 150,000 or so to invade it, not so successfully. Reconstruction of Ukraine will be a monumental task. Even if Putin leaves Ukraine to rot, as he did Luhansk and Donetsk, it will cost Russia tens of billions of dollars per year.
The price tag will be staggering
That kind of money will be hard to come by in a Russia under Western sanctions. Oil today has spiked above $130/barrel, which gives Putin a big windfall. But the longer-term effect of Western sanctions will be to reduce economic growth worldwide. He won’t be able to rely on oil above $100/barrel. And Western supplies will in due course increase in response to prices anywhere near that level.
So whatever happens this month or next in Ukraine, the longer-term prospects are not good for Moscow. Russian victory and occupation of Ukraine are Moscow’s nightmare, as well as Ukraine’s.
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Stevenson’s army, March 6
– WaPo says declassified list of US aid shows speed up to Ukraine last December.
-WSJ says Poland plans to send Soviet fighter planes.
– NYT says US wants clear line of succession after Zelensky to make aid easier.
– The Hill sees bipartisan opposition to no fly zone.
– SAIS Prof Mary Sarotte says new cold war will be worse than before.
– The news inside Russia: WaPo sees cracks in social media. New Yorker shows breadth of Putin control.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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