Category: Daniel Serwer
The Iran enigma post-November 8
I am no expert on Iran. I’ve never even visited. But it is an important country that interests me. So let me review what I perceive of its current situation, subject of course to correction by those more knowledgeable.
Widespread protests
The protests are widespread. The initial impetus for the demonstrations was the death of a Kurdish woman, Mahsa Amini, whose hijab was supposedly not worn correctly. It allegedly did not cover all of her hair. She died after physical abuse in police custody.
This triggered the current wave of protests, which have retained a focus on women’s rights. But they also have a distinct political direction. Some are calling for an end to the Islamic Republic, with slogans that focus on the Supreme Leader (“down with the dictator!”).
The regime has responded with violence against the protesters, killing something like 250, arresting thousands, and injuring many more. Demonstrations and regime violence have been particularly intense in Iranian Kurdistan.
Iran’s economic situation is not a focus of the demonstrations, but it is certainly a contributing factor. Suffering from both international sanctions and internal mismanagement, many Iranians are impoverished while regime supporters thrive. The contrast is glaring.
Power projection
Even as it tussles with domestic unrest, the Islamic Republic is increasing its power projection abroad. Iran joined in OPEC+’s decision to maintain high oil prices as the world economy declines. It is helping Russia use Iranian drones in the Ukraine war and mobilizing forces on the border with Azerbaijan. Tehran has maintained support for Syrian President Assad and continued its assistance to the Houthis in Yemen.
The JCPOA is at risk
These are fairly low-cost operations in financial terms, but they are high-impact in political terms. They signal a growing alignment with Russia, which also wants to maintain oil prices, supports Assad, and favors Armenia in its conflict with Azerbaijan. The EU, which has a mediating role at the nuclear talks, has imposed new sanctions on Iran because of its drone exports to Russia.
Iran’s current power projection also signals disinterest in renewing the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (aka Iran nuclear deal). The repression inside Iran and power projection in the region and Ukraine make it difficult for the Biden Administration to revive the JCPOA even after the November 8 election.
Failure to renew the JCPOA will leave Iran free to continue to enrich uranium to levels needed for nuclear weapons. It is already at the nuclear threshold. It could also ignite a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. Turkish President Erdogan and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman have both stated that they will pursue nuclear weapons if more countries in the region do.
Uncertainties are unsettling
Some hope that the demonstrations will collapse the regime and lead to one that does not pursue nuclear weapons. But hope is not a policy. The relevant timeframe is short. Iran could have the material it needs for a nuclear weapon within 6 months if the JCPOA is not renewed. No one can be sure the demonstrators will succeed. Nor can we be sure the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) will not dominate a successor regime. That could lead to an accelerated nuclear program.
If Iran does gain the fissile material needed for nuclear weapons, it will likely want to maintain ambiguity about whether it has actually made them or intends to deploy them. This would mirror the Israeli stance, which has been successful in reducing awareness of its wepons and protests against its nuclear power status. But Iranian adoption of such an ambiguous stance would introduce one more uncertainty into the Middle East.
The Iran enigma
Iran presents a puzzling problem for Washington. Renewal of the JCPOA is certainly the best currently available answer to the nuclear issue. The demonstrations give some hope for internally-generated regime change. But even that would not guarantee a non-nuclear Iran. Meanwhile, the current regime’s commitment to power projection abroad and violent repression of the demonstrations makes JCPOA renewal difficult.
It will be interesting to see how the Biden Adminstration solves the Iran puzzle once the November 8 election is over.
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Life is unfair, so you need a strategy
Bledë Krasniqi from Television Tëvë 1, based in Prishtina, Kosovo, asked questions. I responded:
Q: As an expert on the issues of the Western Balkan, how have you seen the frequent visits to Kosovo and Serbia by the US emissary for the Western Balkans, Gabriel Escobar, and the EU emissary, Miroslav Lajcak? Are these visits an indication that the final agreement between the two countries is near the end?
A: The envoys are trying to deliver a substantial agreement, but I’ll be happily surprised if they deliver a “final” one.
Vucic is not committed to stabiliity
Q: Escobar said that the president of Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic, is committed to regional stability? Do you agree with this statement?
A: No, I don’t agree. I think Vucic is committed to what he calls the Serbian world, in other words de facto greater Serbia. This threatens instability in both Bosnia and Kosovo [I should also have said Montenegro].
Why not ten minutes?
Q: The United States of America has asked the Prime Minister of Kosovo, Albin Kurti, to postpone the implementation of the decision on the issue of license plates for another 10 months. In your opinion, should Kosovo take such a step?
A: Ten minutes is too long in my view. What is the reason for this American request?
No, the dialogue won’t end this year
Q: Do you believe that the Kosovo – Serbia dialogue will end this year? If so, under what conditions? Do you see relations between the two countries as tense recently?
A: Relations are certainly tense. I doubt the dialogue will end this year.
Yes, to the Association with conditions
Q: Should Kosovo establish the Association of Serbian Municipalities?
A: Yes, but only as part of a package that includes recognition and only with two conditions: 1) reciprocity for Albanian communities in Serbia and 2) compliance with the Kosovo Constitutional Court criteria.
Q: If the Association of Serbian municipalities is conditioned by the internationals, should the leaders of Kosovo accept this condition or do they have to look for other solution.
A: See my response above.
Q: Recently, the European Commission has also asked Kosovo to implement the Association without delays and obstacles? Should this count as a condition for visa liberalization?
A: I hope not.
Life is unfair
Q: Is it unfair to Kosovo the non-liberalization of visas by the European Council?
A: Yes it is unfair, but life is often unfair. Kosovo needs an improved strategy for getting what it wants from the EU.
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Stevenson’s army, October 22
– WaPo says Mar a Lago documents included sensitive materials about Iran and China.
– While I worry about a Russian attack from Belarus, NYT says officials doubt it.
– NYT lists other Ukrainian opportunities.
– NDAA amendment questions shift of SOCOM forces to Germany.
– SAIS prof Todd Harrison analyzes DOD 2023 budget.CFIUS announces new guidelines.
-Even Freedom Caucus wants return to “regular order.” See its critique of how the House runs.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, October 20
– WSJ compares US & Chinese approaches to overseas bases.
– Washington Monthly says not all redistricting commissions are equal.
– FP China Brief has summary of party Congress so far
– Liz Truss resigns. Who might take over?
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Support for Putin does not serve Belarusians
Miodrag Vlahovic, former Montenegrin ambassador to the Holy See and now president of the Montenegro Helsinki Committee, writes:
Alexander Lukashenko struggled to contain his anger as he gesticulated wildly at Vladimir Putin.
At a summit in the Black Sea city of Sochi last month, the tyrant of Belarus publicly reassured the tyrant of Russia not to worry about the hundreds of thousands of Russians who have fled the country since the Kremlin imposed partial conscription on its people.
What Belarus has lost
Lukashenko has some experience in this matter. He lost – and then stole – the election in his own country in 2020. Since then, Belarus has experienced significant brain drain, with thousands of Belarusian companies setting up shop in neighboring European countries.
“Alright 30,000, 50,000 (Russians) have fled,” Lukashenko advised Putin. “Let them leave. I do not know what you think about it, but I was not particularly worried when a few thousand left in 2020. They asked to go back, most of them want to go back. And these people are coming back.”
Unfortunately for the Belarusian economy and its remaining residents, this is not true.
Since Lukashenko ordered his secret police to overturn the peoples’ electoral will, more than 4,000 Belarusian small and medium sized businesses have relocated. They have gone mainly to countries inside the European Union, notably Poland. Many more have simply disappeared.
The details are dramatic
The crackdown has had a devastating effect on business confidence and inward investment. Leading Belarusian businessmen took fright, particularly those involved in the Hi-Tech Park (HTP). It was once one of the leading innovative technology clusters in Central and Eastern Europe.
For years, there was an unspoken contract between the Belarusian regime and an IT sector that funded so much of the country’s growth. We do not touch you, and you do not meddle in politics. The stolen 2020 election has disintegrated that tacit agreement.
Viktor Prokopenya, a Belarus-born fintech entrepreneur, criticized the assaults on democratic protestors. He then moved currency.com, a global web and app based trading platform that disrupted traditional finance, out of the country. Viktor Kisly, the billionaire chief executive of Wargaming, the company behind the popular online game World of Tanks; Arkady Dobkin, the owner of EPAM; Mikhail Chuprinsky, founder of robot manufacturer Rozum Robotics; and Mikita Mikado, CEO of PandaDoc, which provides document automation software, quickly followed.
The damage will be longterm
I know the damage that an exodus of humans and capital can do to a country’s prospects. I was foreign minister of Montenegro when it re-gained its independence in 2006, later becoming our first ambassador to the United States.
By the time we gained independence, the bitter Balkans War of the 1990s had wrought a devastating toll on the economies of south-eastern Europe, Montenegro included.
Figures from the World Bank suggest we lost around 12% of our population. Many of the emigrants were highly-educated managers, professionals, scientists, researchers, and technicians, together with young people striving for better training, education, careers and living prospects.
Montenegro is still feeling the effects today. The “brain drain” has undermined local democracy and social cohesion. Unemployment is around 15% – more than twice as high as the EU average.
This year’s Russian aggression on Ukraine and the effects of Western sanctions on Belarus – Russia’s key ally – have made Lukashenko’s reassurance to Putin in Sochi even more dubious.
Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in late February, the outflow of businesses and entrepreneurs from Belarus has grown rapidly. In June alone, the number of newly registered businesses in Poland backed with Belarusian capital amounted to 254 companies. Last month, Polish president Andrzej Duda said that 150,000 Belarusians have received asylum and work in Poland, including thousands of protesters.
Back in Belarus, it is estimated that up to 80% of the vital IT industry will disappear. According to experts, this will cause a 4% drop in GDP.
If Lukashenko continues to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine then Belarus will continue to suffer gravely. The president of Germany’s digital association Bitkom recently admitted: “By bringing IT specialists from Russia and Belarus to us, the aggressor will be noticeably weakened.”
Ominous signs
The latest signs are ominous. In recent days, Lukashenko has said that Belarus and Russia are to deploy a joint military group and that thousands of Russian troops will be arriving in his country for drills.
It is extremely unlike the tyrant of Minsk will reconsider, opt for peace and start making decisions that support the citizens of his own country – and not Putin and Russian aggression on Ukraine.
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Stevenson’s aramy, October 19
– Sen. Leahy gets cut in Egypt aid.
– Senate likely to add $10 Billion for Taiwan.
– WaPo has more on retired officers working for foreign countries, this time UAE.
– GOP leader McCarthy says no blank check for Ukraine aid.
– NYT reports men missing from Moscow.
– I have some comments about new book on GOP.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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