Category: Martin Pimentel
Development assistance has adapted to circumstances, but China looms
Friday February 12 Georgetown’s Walsh School of Foreign Service convened the Transatlantic Policy Symposium (TAPS), an annual conference organized by the graduate students of the BMW Center for German and European Studies. The conference brought together academics and professionals from around the world to discuss transatlantic cooperation and development assistance in the developing world. Speakers and their affiliations are listed below:
Speakers
Dr. Anne-Marie Gulde Wolf: Deputy Director for Asia and Pacific, International Monetary Fund
Eric Kite: Deputy Director, Caribbean Affairs, United States Agency for International Development
Helga Flores Trejo: Vice President, Global Public Affairs International Organizations, Bayer AG
Recent Changes in Development Assistance
Each of the three panelists elucidated key changes among their respective institutions with regards to development assistance. Kite explained that USAID traditionally engaged primarily in bilateral, state-to-state assistance programs. Over time, however, multilateral organizations have grown dramatically and now dwarf the size of USAID. The US government has correspondingly shifted its development assistance from bilateral to multilateral frameworks.
Gulde Wolf emphasized that the IMF has likewise changed its strategic focus over the years. While the IMF’s original mission consisted largely of short-term loans and financing, by the 1980s the IMF began to offer more long-term loans to low-income countries and increased its emphasis on capacity building and technical assistance, understanding that no amount of loans are sufficient if countries fail to also develop good economic policy. The IMF now has three major areas of interest
- emergency lending to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic, which has provided assistance to 50 countries to date,
- developing sound macroeconomic policy to address global climate change,
- debt management and debt restructuring in low-income countries to address a long-term debt crisis that the pandemic has exacerbated.
Flores Trejo also noted several recent changes in the development sphere. She echoed the sentiments of Kite that development has become more cooperative and partner-based. To that end, the private sector–including NGOs, foundations, and corporations–has become increasingly involved in major development programs around the world. Development actors have begun to see their work more holistically, including linking development to foreign and defense policy, as well as an understanding that successful development requires a global approach. Uneven development will ultimately be counterproductive.
Partnership and Development Assistance
Given that development programming has become more holistic and more diverse, the panelists also reflected on the problems and promises of partnership across institutions.
Flores Trejo in particular reflected on the importance of governments cooperating and partnering with the private sector to implement development programs. She pointed to the most recent iteration of the Edelman Trust Barometer, which indicates a major decline in public trust for both the government and the media. Notably, however, companies and the private sector writ large have a higher degree of public trust than government, which can potentially bridge the credibility gap by partnering with the private sector to implement programming.
Kite similarly stressed the importance of cooperation for USAID. He emphasized that local actors in partner countries are crucial for both information gathering and implementation. However, he also argued that USAID has traditionally cooperated best with organizations and countries that have shared values. China, however, has posed a unique problem for the US as it has dramatically increased its own development assistance in direct opposition to the strategic interests of the US.
Gulde Wolf argued that the IMF has been uniquely successful at working collaboratively to address development issues. She attributed the organization’s success in this area in large part to the near universal membership of the IMF, which encourages broad partnership. Like Kite, she also believed that the emergence of China as a major development actor has presented challenges to the debtor-creditor relationship. However, she also clarified that the IMF has little ability to address these particular emerging challenges.
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Peace Picks | February 8 – February 12, 2021
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream
1. Strengthening the Multilateral Order in a Nationalist Age | February 8, 2021 | 9:00 AM – 10:15 AM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here
Transnational problems such as climate change, economic volatility, and global health can most effectively be tackled by deep and structured cooperation via institutions, rules, and formal intergovernmental networks. Most European nations are committed to protecting and strengthening multilateral order in an increasingly nationalist world. While the case for multilateralism is well established, much less is known about how to establish an effective multilateral order. On Monday, February 8, the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings will host a panel discussion to analyze alternative pathways to increasing the net levels of multilateral cooperation.
Speakers
Bruce Jones (moderator): Director, Project on International Order and Strategy, Brookings Institution
Kai Sauer: Undersecretary of State for Foreign and Security Policy, Ministry for Foreign Affairs for Finland
Constanze Stellzenmüller: Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center on the United States and Europe
Thomas Wright: Director, Center on the United States and Europe
2. Empowering Youth on the Path to Conflict Resolution | February 8, 2021 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET | CSIS | Register Here
The world’s 1.2 billion young people make up 16% of the world population with half of them living in low-income and lower-middle income countries. Youth possess catalytic potential to help achieve global development goals and to promote stability, peace, and community resilience. In recent years, youth have been drivers of change through organizing climate movements, embracing digital transformation, and coordinating community pandemic responses. With concerted effort, youth in fragile contexts can realize their potential as peacebuilders and drivers of post-Covid-19 recovery.
Speakers
Erol Yayboke (moderator): Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, Project on Prosperity and Development, CSIS
Guadalupe Cruz: Director of Training for Latin and Central America, Cure Violence Global
Sherizaan Minwalla: Chief of Party, Iraq Genocide Recovery and Persecution Response, MSI A Tetra Tech Company
Rachel Walsh Taza: Program Manager, Children & Youth, Search for Common Ground
Ambassador Lone Dencker Wisborg: Ambassador for Denmark to the US
3. Building a Viable Middle East Venture Capital Industry | February 9, 2021 | 8:00 AM – 9:00 AM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Startup investments in the Middle East are on the rise: in 2020, despite a global pandemic, venture capital funding amounted to over $1 billion and increased 13 percent from 2019 according to a MAGNiTT report. Still, significant barriers remain that prevent greater investment and stymie the region’s economic growth. The Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East will discuss how to boost the venture capital industry in the Middle East to drive sustainable funding for startups.
Speakers
Amjad Ahmad: Director, empowerME, Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, Atlantic Council
Ahmad al-Naimi: Partner, Saudi Technology Ventures (STV)
Ahmed el-Alfi: Chairman and Co-Founder, Sawari Ventures
Noor Sweid: General Partner, Global Ventures
Christopher Schroeder (moderator): Venture Investor
4. Presenting the Belfer Center’s 2020 National Cyber Power Index | February 9, 2021 | 10:30 AM – 11:30 ET | Belfer Center | Register Here
Only a handful of countries are well known for their cyber impacts: notable, US, Israel, Iran, China, Russia and North Korea. But cyber visibility can give a misleading picture of actual cyber power. The full range of capabilities, objectives, and actors are often left out of the story. The Belfer Center’s Julia Voo, Anina Schwarzenbach, Irfan Hemani, Simon Jones, Winnona DeSombre and Daniel Cassidy have proposed a novel and more complete way to measure a country’s cyber power.
Belfer’s 2020 National Cyber Power Index looks at the cyber capabilities of 30 countries across seven national objectives such as surveillance, defense, intelligence gathering and destruction. It then measures a country’s capability within each objective. The team hope that through developing the NCPI the discussion of cyber power is broadened to reflect applications beyond destructive capabilities.
Speakers
Anina Schwarzenbach: Postdoctoral Associate, University of Maryland
Julia Voo: Cyber Fellow, Belfer Center
5. The EU, Japan and the US in Indo-Pacific | February 10, 2021 | 5:30 PM – 6:45 PM ET | European Council on Foreign Relations | Register Here
In 2016, Japan published its Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) vision, underscoring the importance of a rules-based order in the region. Europe, on the other hand, has been more cautious in the adoption of this concept. But the pandemic has highlighted the need for Europe to recalibrate the status quo and actively expand its partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region. With France, Germany and the Netherlands, three EU countries have already published Indo-Pacific strategies and the need for a coordinated pan-European approach to the Indo-Pacific is growing. Toshimitsu Motegi, the Foreign Minister of Japan, has recently addressed the EU’s Foreign Affair Council to advocate for it, while The High Representative Josep Borrell expressed appreciation for Japan’s FOIP.
This conversation will discuss Japanese understanding of FOIP, the efforts to bring it about and potential for closer cooperation with Europe and the US. What does Japan’s FOIP strategy mean for Europe? How could a coherent and effective EU strategy on Indo-Pacific look like? What kind of expectations did the “European Indo-Pacific awakening” raise in the region? How can Europe, Japan and the US work together to maintain a rules-based order in the region?
Speakers
Janka Oertel (moderator): Director, Asia Programme, ECFR
Prof. Nobushige Takamizawa: Former Permanent Representative of Japan to the Conference on Disarmament
6. A decade of protests: Why governance reform is critical in the Arab World | February 10, 2021 | 3:00 PM – 4:15 PM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here
As we approach the tenth anniversary of the Arab Spring, much attention is rightly being given to the broader governance trajectory of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Beyond the public debate over democratic change, another long-standing struggle is taking place as many countries work to reform state institutions to make them more efficient, effective, and responsive. The MENA region is home to some of the largest public sectors in the world, yet the quality of service delivery is often poor. The region is also one of the few places globally that has lost ground in the past decade on indices for government effectiveness and control of corruption. The Brookings Doha Center and Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut are pleased to invite you to a webinar discussing the future of governance reform in the MENA region.
Speakers
Joseph Bahout (moderator): Director at the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs, American University of Beirut
Hala Bsaisu Lattouf: Former Minister of Social Development, Government of Jordan
Rami Khouri: Director of Global Engagement, American University of Beirut
Robert P. Beschel, Jr.: Nonresident Senior Fellow, Brookings Doha Center
Tarik M. Yousef: Senior Fellow, Brookings Doha Center
7. The Security Environment in Western Pacific Waters | February 10, 2021 | 8:00 AM – 9:00 AM ET | Stimson Center | Register Here
The waters of the Western Pacific are the focus of intense interest for trade routes, for territorial disputes, and as ongoing case studies for international law. How do Japan and the United States approach the challenges of upholding international norms and the law of the seas in this important region? How can regional and global multilateral partnerships influence the security dynamics in these waters? Join us for a webinar with Japanese and U.S. experts to explore these complex issues.
Speakers
Emma Chanlett-Avery: Specialist in Asian Affairs, Congressional Research Service
Yurika Ishii: Associate Professor, National Defense Academy of Japan
Susumu Takai: President, Security Strategy Research Institute of Japan
Kathleen Walsh: Associate Professor of National Security Affairs, US Naval War College
7. A Nation in Transition: Political Polarization in Turkey | February 11, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Turkey’s activities in Syria, Iraq, Libya, the Caucasus, and the Eastern Mediterranean are well documented, casting a long shadow in the Middle East and beyond. But less reported are some of the trends and attitudes lurking beneath the surface that will likely shape how Turkey’s domestic politics, society, and foreign policy will evolve in the future. The Middle East Institute (MEI), in collaboration with IstanPol, an Istanbul-based research institution, is pleased to announce a series called Turkey Beyond: Trends and Drivers Shaping a Nation in Transition.
In the opening panel, the speakers will discuss the following questions and more: What are the drivers of ongoing political polarization in the Turkish electorate? How are political parties and actors responding to this increasing polarization? How is polarization influenced by gender, economic segmentation, and ethnicity? What has changed since the 2019 local elections?
Speakers
Gönül Tol (moderator): Director, Turkey Program, MEI
Edgar Sar: Co-founder and Chair, IstanPol
Seren Selvin Korkmaz: Co-founder and Executive Director, IstanPol
8. Diplomacy, Discord, and Turkish Politics since World War II | February 11, 2021 | 11:00 AM – 12:30 PM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
CRS Director Onur Isci will explore the history of Turkish diplomacy in the Cold War. Joining him are author and contributing writer at the New York Times, Suzy Hansen and Associate Director of the Hagop Kevorkian Center for Near Eastern Studies at New York University, James Ryan. The three experts of modern Turkish history will explore the major themes, issues, and lessons from Turkey’s diplomatic experiences in the Cold War.
Speakers
Christian F. Ostermann (moderator): Director, History and Public Policy Program, Wilson Center
Onur Isci: Assistant Professor, Bilkent University
Suzy Hansen: Author, New York Times
James Ryan: Assistant Director, Center for Near Eastern Studies, NYU
9. Ten Years After the Arab Spring: Middle East Writers Reflect on the Arab Uprisings | February 11, 2021 | 12:00 – 1:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The second book talk in our series features award-winning Egyptian writer Yasmine El Rashidi discussing her debut novel, Chronicle of a Last Summer. Through a young Egyptian woman’s recount of her personal and political coming of age, El Rashidi traces the fine line between survival and complicity, exploring the conscience of a generation raised in fear and silence.
Speakers
Yasmine El Rashidi: Author, Chronicle of a Last Summer
Jacki Lyden: Author, Board Member, Alan Cheuse International Writers Center
10. Transatlantic Policy Symposium 2021: Building Better Partnerships | February 12, 2021 | 9:00 AM – 5:00 PM ET | BMW Center for German and European Studies | Register Here
The Transatlantic Policy Symposium (TAPS) is an annual conference fully organized by the graduate students of the BMW Center for German and European Studies in the Walsh School of Foreign Service. The conference brings together academics, students, and professionals from around the world to discuss pressing issues at the heart of the transatlantic relationship.
Speakers
W. Gyude Moore: Senior Policy Fellow, Center for Global Development
Dr. Tilla Antony: Senior Officer, Global Partnerships, International Monetary Fund
Dr. Anne-Marie Gulde: Deputy Director for Asia and Pacific, International Monetary Fund
Eric Kite: Deputy Director, Caribbean Affairs, United States Agency for International Development
Helga Flores Trejo: Vice President, Global Public Affairs International Organizations, Bayer AG
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Requiem for Syria, but some hope for US diplomacy
Pro-democracy protests began in Syria nearly 10 years ago. In response, the government escalated violence, which sparked the Syrian civil war. The subsequent humanitarian catastrophe has killed almost half a million people and displaced an estimated 12 million others.
On February 4, Brookings Distinguished Fellow Itamar Rabinovich and Carmit Valensi, research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, discussed their new book, Syrian Requiem, which details the long-developing divisions in Syrian politics, surveys the various actors who fought in Syria directly or through proxies, and examines the policy choices that the conflict currently presents to the United States and others. The speakers at the event are listed below:
Speakers:
Susan Maloney: Vice President and Director, Foreign Policy
Steven Heydemann (moderator): Nonresident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Center for Middle East Policy
Itamar Rabinovich: Distinguished Fellow, Foreign Policy
Carmit Valensi: Research Fellow and Syria Program Manager, Institute for National Security Studies
Origins of the Crisis
Both structural and proximate factors have contributed to the ongoing crisis in Syria. Rabinovich identified flaws in US foreign policy under both Obama and Trump as some of the key proximate causes for the depth of the crisis in Syria. In particular, he argued that Obama’s refusal to arm the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in 2012 and 2013 severely hampered the opposition’s ability to combat the regime. Jouejati similarly identified the failure to arm the FSA as a critical mistake, while also arguing that Obama should have responded more forcefully when Assad crossed his infamous red line regarding the use of chemical weapons. Jouejati pointed to this sign of weakness as a clear signal to Russia that the US would allow Moscow free reign in Syria to dictate the outcome of events.
Rabinovich also noted several structural factors that he believes will continue to generate instability in Syria. First, the artificial borders originating from the notorious Sykes-Picot agreement have created an inherently flawed state. Second, the autocratic nature of the Syrian state under Assad will continue to foster reciprocal resistance and violence. Valensi pointed to Assad’s continued use of violence and repression in reclaimed territory, as well as his focus on strengthening the state security apparatus prior to reconstruction, as evidence that the Assad regime will continue to engender opposition.
Assad’s Prospects
With substantial support from Russia and Iran, Assad has made significant military advances since 2015. However, all of the panelists believe that Assad’s prospects for consolidating control over the country remain dim. Valensi points to three key signs that Assad will struggle to bring the entire country back into the fold. First, even after the military successes of the past few years, Assad still only controls 60% of the territory. Second, both his military success and his ability to maintain control over conquered territory is largely predicated on either physical or monetary support from Russia and Iran. Should that support begin to wane, Assad’s ability to control territory will diminish. Finally, Assad does not have the resources to reconstruct the country, and both Russia and Iran are unlikely to have the necessary capacity or willingness to provide enough financial support.
Jouejati added another critical sign of Assad’s long-term instability. The COVID-19 pandemic and the collapse of the Lebanese economy have severely exacerbated the economic crisis in Syria. Even in the heart of regime-controlled territory, state subsidies for bread have decreased and people complain of long lines for fuel. As a result, Assad is currently witnessing a worrying decline in support from even his most loyal followers.
Paths Forward
The multitude of stressors on the Assad regime suggests that the US may have some leverage to promote an end to the Syrian civil war. However, while all of the panelists believed that the US has more leverage in Syria than has commonly been acknowledged, they differed on precisely where the US should apply pressure. In particular, the panelists debated which actor is the most promising for asserting influence on the Assad regime. Valensi argued that the new Biden administration should attempt to boost the UN diplomatic process through UN Resolution 2254, despite Heydemann’s critique of the UN process as the example of “zombie diplomacy” par excellence. Jouejati favored US support of a Russian-led diplomatic process, arguing that Russia has indicated a softening of its support for Assad. Heydemann, however, expressed concern that Russia has sent these signals before without ever in fact wavering in its support for the Assad regime.
However, the panelists did agree that the limited US military presence remaining in Syria provides significantly more leverage than many people have recognized. However, they did not advocate for a more expansive military presence, instead arguing that even limited presence and military action can be used strategically. Valensi pointed to Trump’s limited strikes in response to Assad’s use of chemical weapons as evidence that limited engagement need not necessarily be a prelude to full intervention.
To watch the event in full, please click here.
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Peace Picks | January 25-29
Notice: Due to public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
1. Reflections on Mass Protests & Uprisings in the Arab World, Part 1 | January 25, 2021 | 1:00 PM – 2:30 PM ET | Arab Studies Institute | Register Here
December 17, 2020 marked the tenth anniversary of the start of the Arab uprisings in Tunisia. Beginning in 2011, mass uprisings swept North Africa and the Middle East, spreading from the shores of Tunisia to Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Bahrain, and the Eastern Province of the Arabian Peninsula. A “second wave” of mass protests and uprisings manifested during 2019 in Sudan, Algeria, Lebanon, and Iraq. The persistence of demands for popular sovereignty even in the face of re-entrenched authoritarianism, imperial intervention, and civil strife is a critical chapter in regional and global history. In an effort to mark, interrogate, and reflect on the Arab uprisings, we launch a yearlong set of events, reflections, and conversations. We hope to produce resources for educators, researchers, students, and journalists to understand the last decade of political upheaval historically and in the lived present. Over the past decade, a plethora of events, texts, and artistic and cultural productions have navigated the last decade’s spectrum of affective and material registers. We hope to contribute to these efforts through a historically grounded, theoretically rigorous approach that collaboratively interrogates the multiple questions the Arab uprisings continue to pose.
Speakers:
Amaney Jamal: Professor of Politics, Princeton University
Asli Bali: Professor of Law, UCLA
Rochelle Davis: Director, Center for Contemporary Arab Studies
Ahmad Dallal: Dean, Georgetown School of Foreign Service, Qatar
Ziad Abu-Rish: American Druze Foundation Fellow, Georgetown University
Lina Abou Habib: MENA Advisor, Global Fund for Women
Adam Hanieh: Professor, SOAS University of London
Rashid Khalidi: Professor, Columbia University
Bassam Haddad (Moderator): Director, Middle East and Islamic Studies Program, George Mason University
2. Defense Project Series: Dr. Peter Mansoor discusses, “How cultural biases influence success or failure in war” | January 25, 2021 | 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM ET | Belfer Center | Register Here
Join us as Dr. Pete Mansoor Mason Chair of Military History, Ohio State University, discusses the influence of culture on US and international militaries and the resulting impact on war strategies and the prospects for success. The executive officer to General Petraeus during the Iraq surge in 2007-08, Pete Mansoor will talk about how biases and unstated assumptions impact the ability of militaries around the world to achieve success in conflicts. This topic has become increasingly important in the past two decades.
Speakers:
Peter Mansoor: Mason Chair of Military History, The Ohio State University
3. Africa-Europe Relations in 2021 | January 26, 2021 | 9:00 AM – 10:30 AM ET | European Council on Foreign Relations | Register Here
Europe’s Africa engagement is in the process of evolution. The ties between Africa and Europe are many. Forged through proximate geography and shared history there is much to draw upon in knitting the two together going forward. But some points of mutual benefit are as yet not fully realized as such, other areas are misinterpreted as problems rather than challenges with upside benefit if gripped adroitly.
This roundtable will focus on the state of the Africa-Europe relationship with its challenges and opportunities, and the role that Southern Europe could play in the process.
The question underpinning the Session is: Why shouldn’t the Africa/Europe relationship grow to be amongst the most important for each continent? What needs to occur to realise that vision?
The virtual roundtable will be held in English on the record with mandatory registration in advance.
Speakers:
Francisco André: Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs and Cooperation, Portugal
Lora Borissova: Senior Expert in the Cabinet of EU Commissioner Jutta Urpilainen
Emanuela Del Re: Deputy Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Italy
Theodore Murphy: Director, Africa Programme, ECFR
Arturo Varvelli (Moderator): Head, ECFR Rome
4. Defending the Seas: Gray-Zone Threats in the Maritime Domain | January 26, 2021 | 10:30 AM – 11:30 AM ET | American Enterprise Institute| Register Here
Most of the world’s trade — from electronics to fruit — travels by sea. The disruption of even a few sea-borne supply lines would immediately harm countries. The same goes for the roughly 300 undersea cables that carry the world’s internet traffic. Civilian activity’s reliance on the world’s oceans creates considerable opportunities for gray-zone aggression, the hostile acts between war and peace.
What can NATO member states and partners do to protect themselves from maritime gray-zone threats? Please join AEI’s Elisabeth Braw for a panel discussion on the importance of critical maritime infrastructure and how states can partner with civil societies to protect the seas from gray-zone threats.
Speakers:
Elisabeth Braw (Moderator): Resident Fellow, AEI
Andrew Lewis: Commander, Second Fleet, US Navy
Ewa Skoog Haslum: Chief, Royal Swedish Navy
5. How the Preservation of Afghan Culture Can Support Peace | January 27, 2021 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM ET | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
Afghanistan has made enormous economic, political, and social progress in the last 20 years. Often underappreciated, cultural heritage preservation, creative economies, and tourism should play an important role in ongoing peace efforts as they are important for the overall prosperity and economic and societal growth. Given the destruction of the Bamiyan Buddhas in 2001 and other tragedies with longer term cultural, economic, and societal implications, it is appropriate that civil society, culture, and creative economies be a part of the ongoing peace negotiations set to determine the future of Afghanistan.
As we know from other countries, such as Vietnam or Cambodia, cultural heritage preservation, creative economies, and tourism can play an important role in post-conflict economic recovery, providing jobs and livelihoods. It can also contribute to a positive national identity and pride. The proper management and preservation of a nation’s cultural treasures are essential for protecting minority rights, improving environmental protection, as well as strengthening communities in their sense of belonging and ownership, creating lasting and sustainable avenues for growth and development, and over time a more inclusive national narrative. Learn about the heritage of Afghanistan, efforts that have been taken to preserve and promote it, cultural heritage management as part of economic policy, reconciliation, cultural diplomacy, tourism, the benefits around supporting the creative economy, and learn about the role of culture in attaining peace.
Speakers:
Daniel F. Runde (Moderator): Senior Vice President, CSIS
Irina Bokova: Board Member, ARCH International
Luis Monreal: General Manager, Aga Khan Trust for Culture
Adela Raz: Afghanistan Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the United Nations
6. Imagining Future Airwars: What Turkish Successes in Nagorno-Karabakh and Libya Might Foreshadow | January 28, 2021 | 3:00 PM – 4:30 PM ET | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Over the last year, Turkey has pioneered novel utilizations of existing military technologies to yield highly effective drone relays, aerial reconnaissance methodologies, and multilayered air defense systems. In both Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh, these innovations enabled the Turkish-backed side to reverse the initial tide of war. This Zoom event seeks to examine how these developments in the use of drones, anti-aircraft systems, and counter anti-aircraft technologies illuminate the shifting balance of power in Eurasia and Africa in 2021, and beyond.
Drawing on The Middle East Institute (MEI)’s recent publication, “Turning the Tide: How Turkey Won the War for Tripoli,” a diverse panel of experts will explore these issues and their possible implications on theatres as diverse as Ukraine, Yemen, the Arabian Gulf, the Sahel, and Somalia. We will also opine on how the US, EU, and NATO should be preparing for these new forms of aerial warfare.
Speakers:
Wolfgang Pusztai: Security and policy analyst; former Austrian Defense Attaché to Libya
Lieutenant General Michael Nagata: Distinguished senior fellow on National Security, MEI; former head, SOCCENT
Kitty Harvey: Former Naval Intelligence Officer; forthcoming book on Saudi Arabia and Iraq
Whitney Grespin: Visiting scholar, George Washington University; former advisor, Somali Ministry of Defense
Jason Pack (Moderator): President, Libya-Analysis LLC; non-resident scholar, MEI
7. The complexities of unraveling US sanctions and returning to the JCPOA | January 28, 2021 | 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM ET | Atlantic Council | Register Here
The January 20 inauguration of President Joe Biden has raised expectations for a quick return to compliance by both the United States and Iran to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Biden administration officials have promised to rejoin the JCPOA if Iran returns to strict compliance with the agreement, but won’t be as simple as rolling back all sanctions imposed on Iran by the Trump administration.
The mosaic of new sanctions the Trump administration levied on Iran includes hundreds of new specific targets and new sectors, both primary and secondary. In “Rejoining the Iran Nuclear Deal: Not So Easy,” author Brian O’Toole, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics Center, defines several distinct buckets for the various sanctions, and explains how the Biden administration might choose to address each bucket.
The Atlantic Council’s Future of Iran Initiative and GeoEconomics Center invite you to a discussion of this paper and the prospects for US diplomacy with Iran under the Biden administration. The discussion will feature the author alongside Kelsey Davenport, director for nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association, Kenneth Katzman, senior analyst, Iran and the Persian Gulf at the Congressional Research Service, and Ali Vaez, Middle East fellow, Iran project director and senior advisor to the President at the International Crisis Group, and moderated by Ms. Barbara Slavin, director, Future of Iran Initiative at the Atlantic Council.
Speakers:
Kelsey Davenport: Director, Nonproliferation Policy, Arms Control Association
Kenneth Katzman: Senior Analyst, Iran and the Persian Gulf, Congressional Research Service
Brian O’Toole: Nonresident Senior Fellow, GeoEconomics Center, Atlantic Council
Ali Vaez: Iran Project Director and Senior Advisor to the President, International Crisis Group
Barbara Slavin (Moderator): Director, Future of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council
8. Arab Views on Great Power Competition: Unpacking Arab Barometer Surveys | January 28, 2021 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM ET | Wilson Center | Register Here
The latest cycle of Arab Barometer, survey’s polled local opinion of great power (Russia, China, USA) foreign policy in the MENA region. The Middle East has been a significant arena for all three powers in recent years, and foreign policy analysts expect this to be true for years to come. Meanwhile, countries in the region will continue to be caught in the middle of foreign interests and shifting alliances between local states.
Join us for a discussion and presentation of the results of the latest wave, and a panel of Wilson experts weigh in on the significance for local policy and global actors alike.
Speakers:
Lucille Green: Schwartzman Scholar, Tsinghua University
Michael Robbins: Director, Arab Barometer
Asher Orkaby: Fellow; Research Scholar, Transregional Institute, Princeton University
James F. Jeffrey: Chair of the Middle East Program; Former Ambassador to Iraq and Turkey, and Special Envoy to the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS
Marissa Khurma (Moderator): Program Director, Middle East Program
9. The South Asian Security Landscape | January 28, 2021 | 8:30 AM – 10:00 AM ET | Stimson Center | Register Here
South Asian Voices Visiting Fellows Asma Khalid, Chirayu Thakkar, Fizza Batool, and Saurav Sarkar present their research and policy recommendations on some of the subcontinent’s most pertinent strategic issues. These presentations are the result of a year-long fellowship with the Stimson Center South Asia Program. Fellows will examine the changing deterrence landscape in South Asia, U.S.-India cooperation in multilateral institutions, the role of Pakistani political parties in the Afghanistan peace process, and the potential impact of the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISKP) on intra-Afghan negotiations.
Speakers:
Asma Khalid: Research Associate, Centre for Strategic and Contemporary Research
Chirayu Thakkar: Doctoral Candidate in International Relations, National University of Singapore
Fizza Batool: Doctoral Candidate in International Relations, University of Karachi
Saurav Sarkar: Research Associate, Centre for Air Power Studies
Brigitta Schuchert (Moderator): Research Associate and Managing Editor of South Asian Voices, Stimson Center
10. The Future of Democracy in Asia | January 29, 2021 | 8:30 AM – 10:00 AM ET | Brookings Institution | Register Here
Asia represents a critical frontier for democratic governance that will shape the geopolitical landscape of the 21st century. Democratic states in the region face increasing strain from an interconnected set of challenges across political, economic, and cultural dynamics. Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, uncertainty about American strategy, the implications of emerging technologies, and support for illiberal populism and authoritarianism by policymakers and foreign actors have tested democratic norms in the region.
On Friday, January 29, as part of the initiative on Democracy in Asia, the Foreign Policy program at Brookings will host an event examining the health of democracy in Asia. Following opening remarks by Brookings President John R. Allen, Taiwan Digital Minister Audrey Tang will deliver a pre-recorded keynote address and respond to questions. A moderated panel with regional experts and scholars will then explore the ongoing intraregional challenges and trends affecting democratic governments and institutions across the Indo-Pacific. Following the conversation, panelists will take questions from the audience.
Speakers:
John Allen: President, Brookings Institution
Audrey Tang: Digital Minister of Taiwan
Ryan Hass (Moderator): Senior Fellow, Center for East Asia Policy Studies
Richard C. Bush: Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Center for East Asia Policy Studies
Mireya Solis: Director, Center for East Asia Policy Studies
John Lee: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Maiko Ichihara: Associate Professor, Hitotsubashi University; Visiting Scholar, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
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Thai protests make progress, but…
In 2020, a youth-led protest movement began to spread across Thailand as protestors called for fundamental political change in the Kingdom, including a new election, constitution and reforms to the structure of the monarchy. On January 19, the United States Institute of Peace convened a roundtable to discuss the political dynamics of the movement, its future, and the potential for the US government to craft a constructive response. Speakers and their affiliations are listed below:
Brian Harding (Moderator): Senior Expert, Southeast Asia, U.S. Institute of Peace
Rattaphol “Ahn” Onsanit: Thai Service Chief, Voice of America
Penchan Phoborisut: Assistant Professor, California State University, Fullerton
Jonathan Pinckney: Senior Researcher, Nonviolent Action, U.S. Institute of Peace
Desmond Walton: Senior Director, BowerGroupAsia; U.S. Army Colonel (ret.) and former U.S. Defense Attaché to Thailand
Twitter enables the movement
Throughout 2020–and continuing into 2021–a youth-led pro-democracy movement has emerged across Thailand. While the largest demonstrations have largely been concentrated in Bangkok, Onsanit notes that the emergence of symbolic protests in schools throughout the countryside indicates that the movement is more generational and ideological than it is geographic.
Social media has largely driven the movement’s momentum. Phoborisut points to the relatively high saturation of Twitter among the Thai as a particularly critical factor. Activists have used hashtags such as #whatshappeninginthailand to raise awareness for their campaign, while protestors have also used Twitter to create transnational networks with activists in foreign countries. In particular, the hashtags #milkteaalliance and #howtomob have connected Thai protestors with activists in Hong Kong, who have shared lessons learned and tactical advice from their own experiences with protests.
Positive prospects, but no guarantees
According to Pinckney, two elements of the Thai protest movement suggest positive prospects for the future. First, the movement has exhibited the tactical flexibility typical of most successful protests. By switching between mass demonstrations and dispersed tactics such as the display of banners, hand gestures, and flash mobs–a necessity due to both government repression and the COVID-19 pandemic–the movement has continued to place pressure on King Vajiralongkorn despite the trying times. Second, the movement to date has managed to largely remain nonviolent. As a result, protestors maintain popular legitimacy while government repression has sparked widespread public backlash, leading to the possibility of a more broad-based movement in the future.
However, Pinckney cautions that activists should not count on the ability of social media to generate international awareness and support in the long-term. As protests in other countries have demonstrated, international attention can quickly waver without durable, institutional commitments to the movement. Moreover, Onsanit also warns that protest leaders have so far shown an unwillingness to compromise, diminishing the prospects for a negotiated agreement between activists and the monarchy.
Limits on US support
In the past, the US government has consistently prioritized security and economic issues over political issues when developing its relationship with Thailand. The political dimension, which has included coup attempts, growing authoritarian tendencies, and human rights abuses, has been the shakiest pillar of the US-Thai relationship long before the current wave of protests. Given this history, Walton suggests that the incoming Biden administration is more likely to support reform-oriented dialogue rather than an anti-monarchy agenda. Thai activists’ current refusal to negotiate could thus complicate the US response to the protests.
Nevertheless, he also proposes concrete steps that the new administration can take to maximize its decision-making ability. First, he recommends returning to career ambassadors in Thailand with deep knowledge of the country and region. Second, the Biden administration should reconcile differences between the idealists and pragmatists in his administration as the Thai monarchy can weaponize inconsistencies in US foreign policy around the world to diminish America’s ability to support protests in Thailand. Ultimately, then, US influence will hinge on a combination of the outcome of ideological competition within the movement and strategic decision-making by the U.S.
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