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What Macron meant to say
President Macron of France said Wednesday that the countries of the Western Balkans should be given a clear perspective on joining the EU within a reasonable timeframe. France has been reluctant on enlargement. So the press in the countries concerned has highlighted the statement and wondered what it means.
My guess is less than many might hope. Macron omitted the when, where, and how.
Macron also underlined on the same day that European culture evolved through Christianity:
But we come from Ancient Greece to the Roman Empire, from Christianity to the Renaissance and to the Enlightenment, heirs of a singular way of envisaging the human adventure.
https://presidence-francaise.consilium.europa.eu/en/news/french-president-emmanuel-macron-s-speech-at-the-european-parliament-strasbourg-19-january-2022/
He makes no mention of Europe’s considerable debt to the Islamic world. That casts a shadow on any hope Macron’s statement applies to the three Muslim-majority countries of the Western Balkans: Albania, Kosovo, and Bosnia and Herzegovina. All three are already laggards in adoption of the acquis communautaire compared to Serbia, Montenegro, and North Macedonia.
Macron could have signalled openness to their EU accession. Kosovo has fulfilled the hundred or so requirements the EU levied as preconditions for the visa waiver. France has blocked it, making Kosovars the only Balkanites who need visas to enter the EU. Albania is awaiting a date to start its accession negotiations. Macron might have promised that. He didn’t.
My guess is that the excitement over Macron’s “opening” to the Western Balkans is unjustified. If France does anything to fulfill Macron’s promise, it will accelerate Serbia’s accession and perhaps Montenegro’s. They are both Christian-majority. This would be little more than continuation of longstanding French policy, which favors Belgrade’s interests over those of other Western Balkan countries. Liberté, égalité, fraternité for Christians is what Macron meant to say.
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Stevenson’s army, December 17
– AIPAC will launch its first campaign donation arm.-
– Remember, NDAA doesn’t provide money. Appropriations needed.
-David Ignatius urges use of IAEA to pressure Iran.
– Revolutionary Guard budget to more than double.
– Russia has a negotiation package.
Good reads: Reimagining Arms Control. Prof Brands says US is preparing for wrong war with China.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, November 24
-CNN says US is putting troops near Ethiopia … in case.
– Taliban is sending troops to fight Islamic State.
– FP notes critics of some invitees to summit of democracies.
– China is mad that Taiwan was invited.
– Germany is about to have a new government.
– Lobbyists are using their Hill townhouses.
Politico reports that Susan Rice demands well-written memos, including no typos and the Oxford comma. [This is a valuable lesson for all govt employees.]
History lesson: Atlantic tells what happened 100 years ago when lawmakers tried to ban the teaching of … evolution.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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A necessary and unavoidable but constructive failure
The UN’s Climate Change Conference of Parties (COP 26) ended yesterday with a lengthy, consensus declaration. The Glasgow Climate Pact includes something for just about everyone and not enough for anyone. That’s what you expect from a consensus document purporting to represent the views of 197 countries that are collectively fouling the global commons. Nor is it surprising that the current commitments of the parties, despite significant strengthening before and during the conference, will not achieve the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees centigrade.
The implications are dire. At higher temperatures than that goal, global warming will raise sea levels enough to drown some island countries and deprive many others of their current coastlines, generate even more dramatic storms and forest fires than we are already seeing, shift agricultural patterns in ways that hinder growing enough to meet global demand, and make parts of the planet even more uninhabitable than they already are. The costs will be astronomical. The human implications tragic. There is nothing to celebrate about COP 26 if you are looking only at the physical implications of what was decided in Glasgow, even if you welcome the substantial agreements reached on methane and deforestation.
The conference was however a success in another sense: without it, things would have been worse. Glasgow upped the ante on climate change. No government on earth can now ignore it entirely. Even laggards like China, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and India have been announcing new goals and counter measures. President Biden has put climate change high on his agenda, reversing President Trump’s foolish and counterproductive effort to ignore it. Island nations whose physical existence is threatened had their voices magnified. Less developed countries had their needs acknowledged, if not yet fully funded. None of this is enough, but much of it would not have happened without Glasgow.
This is typical of large international conferences. The UN is doing what it can and should. Such conferences serve to mobilize public opinion and shift attitudes, even if they fail to solve the problems they aim to solve. The key now is to maintain the momentum and raise the political pressure. The parties have agreed to meet again next year in Egypt, where no doubt the appeals for action and money will be heightened. Expanding economies in what we can hope will be the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic will likely make the prospects for meeting the goal of 1.5 degrees centigrade even dimmer than they are today. Don’t expect good news, but next year’s conference will again be a necessary, unavoidable but constructive failure.
That’s how the international system works. Get used to it. This is going to go on for decades.
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Stevenson’s army, September 27
I’ve been traveling and negligent about publishing Charlie’s daily take, but I’ll try to do better this week:
– Erdogan defends military purchases from Russia.
– Chinese unsettled by hostage release deal.
-US Supreme Court sees sharp drop in favorability.
– WSJ says US failed to build sustainable economy in Afghanistan.
– WaPo explains failure of Afghan security forces.
– Guardian profiles Jake Sullivan.
And while this is not a prediction, Steven Dennis of Bloomberg describes the way legislative fights often work out:
“How deals sometimes come together in Congress
NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO YES TO BUDGET MODS IMMEDIATELY DIS NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO YES TO FRAMEWORK NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO NO YES”
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, September 12
– Stanford’s Amy Zegart says CIA post-9/11 has been too involved in military activities, weakening its core mission of avoiding strategic surprise.
– WaPo notes the new bipartisan duo working to reform US war powers laws
– Pentagon has regained control of 6% of IP addresses secretly given to Florida company.
– LA Times says US has removed Patriot missiles from Saudi Arabia.
– FBI released highly redacted report on Saudi involvement in 9/11 attacks. Just look at the redactions!
– Oversight: foreign policy committees hear from SecState Blinken on Mon & Tues in open sessions. SASC hears from Brown & Milley behind closed doors. Check out schedules.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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