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Patriots wear masks and get vaccinated, no compromise
Today is 9/11, but today is also a day on which more than 1500 Americans will die of COVID-19. That is half of the number dying every day as died in the 9/11 attacks twenty years ago. The total confirmed deaths due to the corona virus now number well over 600,000. That is close to 1000 times the number of American service members killed in Afghanistan and Iraq over the past twenty years. Or, if you prefer, about 500 times the number of troops and contractors killed during two decades of the war on terror and two hundred times the number killed on 9/11.
The differences are obvious: COVID-19 has killed people over a year and half, not in a single day, and all over the country, not in one, two, or three places. It has killed mostly older people with pre-existing conditions and mostly brown and black people. But I still find it hard to understand how (mostly white) people who regard themselves as patriots can resist doing what each of them needs to do to prevent fellow-Americans from dying:
These are not difficult things to do. They do not infringe on personal freedom. Virtually every American gets at least half a dozen required vaccines while growing up. Masking to prevent yourself from infecting others is a social obligation. It should be a no-brainer.
It isn’t. Why not? Because you identify with a party and politicians who have decided to oppose vaccines and masking no matter the consequences. Maybe you also think the US government had a hand in attacking the twin towers. Likely you thought Barack Obama was not born in the US. Even more likely, you think Biden won the 2020 election due to fraud. You are prepared to personally interfere with women’s freedom to choose whether she wants to have a baby (as encouraged by a recent Texas law), but you are not willing to have the government, which is responsible for the public welfare, or your employer, who is required to provide a safe workplace, insist that you take simple precautions not to infect others.
9/11 was a moment of extraordinary unity among Americans. We reacted in shock and horror, applauded the first responders, mourned the dead, and sought punishment for those who planned and ordered the attacks. The results 20 years later are not just disappointing but counter-productive: there are now more jihadists in more countries than ever before. It is hard to justify the sacrifice not just of Americans but also the hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, Afghans, and others who have died in the war on terror.
Now we find ourselves sharply divided, between those willing to do what little needs to be done for the common good and those who are unwilling. That division doesn’t sound like a winning formula either, but we’ll have to live with it. The unwilling are not patriots. They have betrayed their fellow citizens and are willing to see many more die. President Biden is right to require them to protect others or lose their livelihoods. Patriots wear masks and get vaccinated. There should be no compromise.
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Stevenson’s army, September 7
– WaPo has good explainer on Guinea coup.
– WSJ says China’s industrial policy is getting more effective.
– Germany blames Russia for election interference.
– Politico says steel tariffs pose dilemma for Biden.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stephenson’s army, September 5 and 6
September 5:
WSJ reports the growth of the counterterrorism indstrical complex since 9/11 attacks.
WaPo highlights Gen. McChrystal as an example of the riches after command.
A former diplomat says all NEOs are chaotic.
WSJ has its own Afghan withdrawal report, noting that civilians questioned the early closing of Bagram.
September 6:
– Max Hastings on lessons unlearned.
– On Lawfare, myths about NATO & Afghanistan.
-On FP, Korea was a worse forever war.
– NYT describes drone strike that killed several civilians.
– WaPo says Pakistan faces new challenges.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, September 1
News:
– Somebody leaked to Reuters the transcript of the last Biden-Ghani phone call.
-NYT details how CIA evacuated its last base.
– Defense One says Biden will offer $60 million to Ukraine in today’s meeting with Zelensky.
-NBC says Taliban did block an attack on US forces.
Opinion: Naval war college prof says both Russia and China are challenging Law of the Sea
In FP, analysts say CIA is better than DOD at building foreign armies.
– Dan Drezner assesses Biden’s foreign policy team.
– WaPo says GOP is divided on foreign policy.
– NYT conservative Ross Douthat hits Biden’s critics.
– Politico says Trump acolytes will remake the Senate.
Charlie doubts he’ll have time to read the papers before heading to 0800 class on Thursday, so here are some items tonight:
– Clip & save: WOTR has report on where defense dollars get spent. This is what matters to members of Congress, and often why they seek to be on the defense committees.
– Political deal in Venezuela.
-Longtime journalist Walter Pincus sees a new US strategy emerging. Here’s link to the earlier Biden policy paper.
–US & China need a better hotline.
– Lawfare assesses Taliban military.
– Milley says US could work with Taliban.
– International discussions on Kabul airport.
– Political games: WaPo sees a lot of GOP disinformation. NYT sees GOP switching positions on the war.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, August 28 and 29
I missed yesterday, so two today:
August 29
– WaPo says US will withdraw all embassy people from Kabul.
– WSJ says US used non-explosive Hellfire to kill ISIS-K planners.
– WaPo has its tick-tock on the final days of the Ghani government.
– NYT says US nears revision of drone rules, with more centralized vetting of strikes.
– Vanity Fair reports on the reduced media presence in Kabul.
August 28
– Retaliatory strike on ISIS-K.
– Atlantic writers assess the Taliban and ISIS-K.
– Retired ambassador on how State should prepare for interventions.
– Washingtonian on what Bezos wants to do with the Post
CRS has some new products on Afghanistan.
- U.S. Military Withdrawal and Taliban Takeover in Afghanistan: Frequently Asked Questions, updated August 27, 2021
- Use of Militia, National Guard, or Federal Armed Forces within the District of Columbia Prior to 2020, August 25, 2021
- Afghan Aerial Evacuation in Context, CRS Insight, August 24, 2021
- The Collapse of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces: Implications for U.S. Security Assistance and Cooperation, CRS Insight, August 23, 2021
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Let the people go, but save those who remain too
The continuing chaos both outside and inside Kabul airport raises difficult questions. Let’s assume all the expats (people without Afghanistan citizenship) get evacuated in the next few days. The foreign powers–not only the US but Germany, UK, France, South Korea, Japan and others–will do their best to find and transport their citizens. The far bigger problem–numerically and morally–is the number of Afghans and Afghan dual citizens, many of whom will be left behind.
While President Ghani’s government lacked popular support, democratization and modernization in Afghanistan had lots, especially in urban areas. The results were in plain sight: girls and women getting educated and holding jobs, health standards and life expectancy improved, literacy increased, free media flourished, and civil society boomed. The educated middle class that made these improvements possible, the “NATO generation,” is now at risk. We are not talking tens of thousands here, or even hundreds of thousands, but millions.
The Taliban are now saying they will not permit Afghan citizens to leave. That presumably also includes dual citizens, though I won’t be surprised if many of them do get out. Still, an enormous number of relatively competent, freedom-seeking Afghans will remain at the mercy of young fighting men in need of jobs, ready to kill those they perceive as opponents, and disdainful of women’s rights. The Taliban’s ability to respond to their own supporters’ expectations will be very limited: foreign aid is abruptly ending and the country’s foreign currency reserves are frozen.
A bloodbath, or a civil war, is certainly possible. Not surprisingly, resistance forces are already gathering in the Panjshir valley, where the strongest opposition to the Taliban emerged the last time around. Pakistan, slow to realize the implications for its own national security of having a jihadist neighbor to its west and north, is trying to convince the Taliban to form an “inclusive” government, which would presumably rule out export of extremism. Iran, delighted with the humiliation of the Americans but concerned about a jihadist neighbor to its east, will press for the same. Russia may do likewise, as it fears export of jihadism to the stans to its south. China ditto, as it fears the spread of jihadism across Xinjiang’s short border with Afghanistan and wants a reliable and stable Afghanistan to form part of its Belt and Road.
The Americans are going to have some difficult choices to make. There is no immediate hope of ousting the Taliban. Humanitarian assistance through multilateral organizations and nongoverrnmental organizations should continue, but we need to consider what specific conditions will need to be met in order to allow the International Financial Institutions to work in Afghanistan and even to allow our own assistance to be renewed and diplomatic relations restored.
The Taliban leaders and spokesmen are saying they don’t want Afghans to flee. Some of them may genuinely realize that they need well-educated people to stay. But the behavior of their militants so far belies that:
The fate of those Afghans who support democracy but remain in the country is precarious. August 31 will leave millions of them still at risk inside Afghanistan. Let the people go, but we should also do all we can to save those who remain.
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